Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed for Florida on Sunday ahead of a high-level meeting with US President Donald Trump and other senior American officials on Monday.
For Netanyahu, the meeting comes at a critical intersection of Israel’s lengthy regional war, which has largely dwindled but threatens to re-escalate in several arenas.
From President Trump’s angle, the end of the fighting in Gaza is a cornerstone of his larger vision for the Middle East, parts of which are difficult pills for Netanyahu to swallow.
“Each leader is in a different mode,” Yaki Dayan, former chief of staff to Israeli foreign ministers Silvan Shalom and Tzipi Livni and former Israeli consul general in Los Angeles, told The Media Line. “Netanyahu wants to discuss all the fronts that still remain open, while Trump wants to close them and move forward.”
Both leaders are entering an election year. In Israel, general elections are slated for October 2026. In the US, midterm elections are scheduled for November 2026 and could deal a major blow to the Republicans.
“The main goal of the meeting is to bridge the gaps and reach agreements regarding Gaza, Iran, and Turkey,” Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on US-Israel relations at Bar-Ilan University and Reichman University, told The Media Line. “We might very well see a trade-off. Trump likes deals, which will force Netanyahu to make concessions in one arena in order to get what he wants in the other.”
On the agenda at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate are several hot topics: the continued implementation of the American 20-point plan for Gaza; the fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon; Iran’s attempts to regroup after a joint Israeli-American attack over the summer; and a possible agreement between Israel and the new leadership in Syria. Hovering over all of this is a conflicting view of Turkey’s role in the region.
We might very well see a trade-off. Trump likes deals, which will force Netanyahu to make concessions in one arena in order to get what he wants in the other
While Washington views Turkey as an indispensable NATO ally, Israeli officials see Ankara under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a destabilizing and often hostile regional actor. President Trump has signaled a transactional approach toward Turkey, prioritizing leverage over issues such as Syria, defense procurement, and energy routes rather than ideological alignment. Netanyahu, by contrast, has openly clashed with Erdoğan in recent years, accusing Turkey of supporting Hamas and undermining Israeli security interests. The divergence leaves Turkey both a potential broker and a strategic wildcard as US-Israeli coordination faces shifting regional realities.
Turkey played a major role in reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, maintaining open channels with Hamas while coordinating intermittently with regional mediators. Israeli officials remain skeptical of any future Turkish involvement in any ceasefire framework, arguing that Turkey’s ties to Hamas limit its credibility as a neutral guarantor.
In Gaza, the ceasefire that went into effect in October remains in place despite continued fragility, amid sporadic violations and mounting political pressure on both sides. Israeli officials maintain that the one remaining deceased Israeli hostage still being held by Hamas makes the transition to the second phase of the ceasefire unacceptable.
Phase two of the Trump Plan is supposed to see the complete disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of a temporary international stabilization force (ISF), and an Israeli withdrawal from the “yellow line” positions it is currently holding within the Gaza Strip.
The American president would like to see Turkey as part of the ISF, something Israel refuses to accept.
“Turkey is a major point of contention, which Israel will insist on,” said Dayan. “Netanyahu will have to pick his battles.”
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According to Dayan, Netanyahu will likely agree to advancing to the second phase of the deal without receiving the body of Ran Gvili. In return, the US will agree to a continued Israeli presence within Gaza. President Trump will also probably consent to no Turkish presence in Gaza.
“Trump believes Turkey was instrumental in releasing the Israeli hostages by applying pressure on Hamas,” said Gilboa. “He believes similar Turkish pressure will lead to the disarmament of Hamas. But he doesn’t understand how problematic Turkey’s interests are for Israel.”
Turkey is considered a key political and financial benefactor of Hamas, hosting senior figures of the group and providing it with decades-long diplomatic and economic backing. Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) has long been ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, supporting its Islamist political vision across the Middle East. Hamas, which acts as the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood, has benefited from this affinity.
Trump believes Turkey was instrumental in releasing the Israeli hostages by applying pressure on Hamas. He believes similar Turkish pressure will lead to the disarmament of Hamas. But he doesn’t understand how problematic Turkey’s interests are for Israel.
Israeli officials have threatened to resume the fighting in Gaza if Hamas refuses to disarm voluntarily. Within the Netanyahu government, far-right ministers who are also senior coalition partners will be a hard sell for any Israeli concessions on the matter, putting Netanyahu in a political bind.
Six months after Israel and the US attacked the Iranian nuclear program, Israel is carefully eyeing what it perceives as Iranian efforts to resuscitate both its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. While it is believed that Iran’s atomic facilities took a major blow that will require years to rebuild, Israeli officials assess that Iran is placing renewed emphasis on its ballistic missile capabilities. Jerusalem views the ballistic missile threat as parallel and equally existential. The 12-day war fought in the summer proved that Iran’s expanding missile arsenal is capable of reaching Israel with increasing accuracy and payload capacity. As a result, Israeli defense officials say monitoring and countering Iran’s missile development has become as critical as preventing Tehran from crossing the nuclear threshold.
“Netanyahu is looking for a green light to act against Iran if Tehran continues to rearm itself,” said Gilboa. “He will not get this green light so easily, the same way he will not get a green light to slow down progress in Gaza.”
Netanyahu is looking for a green light to act against Iran if Tehran continues to rearm itself. He will not get this green light so easily, the same way he will not get a green light to slow down progress in Gaza.
Gilboa added, “Netanyahu is a master manipulator, so the question is to what extent he will be able to get President Trump to agree to some of these things.” He added, “Trump wants to see Gaza move forward first and then deal with Iran. Netanyahu wants the opposite order but understands that he is not calling the shots.”
A preemptive Israeli strike against Iran so soon after the last war would not necessarily include targeting nuclear facilities, in which case Israel might choose to attack without the US.
“Such an operation would be limited in scale and might not even require a green light from Washington,” said Dayan. “Israel would need America’s defensive umbrella, but not active American support in the offensive.”
In Lebanon, a ceasefire that has been in place between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah could also fall apart. Israel continues to strike targets belonging to the terrorist group almost daily. Hezbollah has not yet retaliated, as a deadline for its disarmament by the Lebanese government ends later this week.
“Israel and the US share a common interest here, both wanting the success of the Lebanese government,” said Dayan. “They will likely find a formula by which the deadline will be extended.”
Like in Gaza, Israel threatens to take matters into its own hands and see to the disarmament of Hezbollah and the removal of the threat from its northern border.
“Trump will likely agree to a limited Israeli operation in Lebanon because there is an agreement on the goal of Hezbollah’s disarmament, but not to the return of a full-scale war,” said Gilboa. “Trump is looking to end wars, and he feels he has already achieved peace in the Middle East. Any use of force is a violation of the peace.”
In Syria, Israel and the US are also at odds, but a clash between the White House and Jerusalem appears unlikely.
Both Netanyahu and his defense minister, Israel Katz, have stated several times that Israel will not withdraw its troops from southern Syria. The troops are holding positions they captured just days after the regime of Bashar Assad collapsed, and Ahmed al-Sharaa took over.
Israel is wary of the new Syrian leader’s past as a senior al-Qaida commander, citing fears the area along its northern border could fall into the wrong hands.
For years, Syria was also the main pathway through which Iran smuggled weapons and funds to Hezbollah, as it groomed the terrorist group as its biggest immediate threat to the Jewish state.
Indirect talks between Syria and Israel have so far yielded no such result, with Turkish and Russian involvement in the war-torn country also of concern to neighboring Israel.
“Trump would like to see a security agreement between the two, but Israel is not going to withdraw, so such an agreement won’t be reached,” Dayan explained. “Israel will make clear that Turkish and Russian involvement in Syria requires it to be very hands-on in the foreseeable future.”
Israel will make clear that Turkish and Russian involvement in Syria requires it to be very hands-on in the foreseeable future
The trip will be a test of Netanyahu’s ability to align Israeli security priorities with President Trump’s push to end the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond, and bring a new geopolitical architecture to the region.
Ahead of the midterm elections in the US, President Trump is looking to focus on domestic politics. Quiet in the Middle East is thus critical.
“This meeting comes as Netanyahu is at the least advantageous position vis-à-vis Trump,” Gilboa said. “The political calendar, the substance of the talks, and the current regional dynamics will make it hard for Netanyahu to influence Trump’s approach.”