In the fourth week of Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the country’s northern border with Lebanon and Syria has also become a significant part of the conflict.
Hizbullah, the Lebanon-based Shia Islamist political party and armed group, has been firing anti-tank missiles and rockets into Israeli territory since the beginning of the conflict. The Israeli military has responded with airstrikes and artillery fire toward the launching sites and Hizbullah fighters it has identified on the border. Adding to the tensions have been several incidents of rocket fire from Syria to which Israel also responded with airstrikes.
The Israel-Hizbullah hostilities have a greater potential to spill over into a wider regional conflict than does violence in any other arena.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, is expected to deliver a speech this coming Friday. He has positioned himself in recent years as a guardian of the Palestinian cause. But he has yet to decide on whether to further complicate Israel’s situation by opening another front.
Hizbullah is backed and funded by Iran. A conflict between Hizbullah and Israel would bring Iran into the war.
Iran’s leaders have repeatedly and publicly stated they seek Israel’s destruction.
“Palestine is the centerpiece of Hizbullah and Iran’s ideological project, which is one of building a regional front against Israel and the US,” said Heiko Wimmen, project director of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group. “Therefore, Palestine is not just any country in the region and Hamas is not just any ally. If they lose Hamas, they lose their foothold in Palestine and [their] ideology will be dealt a huge blow.”
Nasrallah is now watching carefully, half on the sidelines, half already on the playing field.
At the outset of the war, Israel set out its goal to strip Hamas of its military capabilities and topple it as the sovereign in the Gaza Strip. As Israeli tanks continue to roll into the Gaza Strip, Nasrallah will make his calculations.
“If Israel will destroy Hamas as a political/military actor and as an efficient member of the so-called axis of resistance—that would be a reason to step into the war,” Wimmen told The Media Line.
Senior Israeli military officers have repeatedly said the army is prepared and able to fight on several fronts. However, Israel is largely focused on its response to Hamas for its deadly massacre in the beginning of the month, in which 1,400 Israelis were murdered and over 4,000 were injured. While amassing forces at the border with Gaza, Israel has significantly beefed up its military presence along the border with Lebanon. Hizbullah has lost its ability to truly surprise Israel, maybe causing a dent in its plan, or perhaps Hizbullah never intended to fully join in the battle.
Hizbullah had promised Hamas that it would stand by it in any future confrontation with Israel
“Hizbullah had promised Hamas that it would stand by it in any future confrontation with Israel,” said Amatzia Baram, a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics. “But Iran needs Hizbullah for later stages of its plan, so it will encourage Nasrallah to not increase its operations at this point.”
Israel, affected by Hamas’ surprise offensive and the realization that its deterrence has been severely damaged in the lead-up to the latest war, will likely respond with full force should Hizbullah escalate.
“Hizbullah is aware that the damage as a result of a war with Israel will not only be with Israel, but also Lebanon will suffer great damage,” said Sarit Zehavi, former Israeli military intelligence officer and founder of the Alma Research and Education Center focusing on Israel’s security challenges on its northern borders. “Just as Hizbullah has grown since the last war, so will Israel’s response.”
It has been almost 20 years since Hizbullah and Israel were at war (in 2006). Its result was mutual deterrence between the two rivals. Israel’s deterrence has eroded throughout the years.
An increased American presence in the region may currently be contributing to the containment of the tensions between Israel and Hizbullah. US President Joe Biden has repeatedly warned other organizations and countries from entering the cycle of violence.
“The sides are testing each other,” said a former official in Israel’s defense establishment, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Israel has so far adopted a policy of responding to attacks without the intention of initiating an offensive. Hizbullah has a dilemma on whether or not to escalate—and how to do so.”
According to the official, Hizbullah is carefully eyeing developments in Gaza. If Hamas is on the brink of collapse and about to lose control over the Gaza Strip, Nasrallah will have no choice but to enter the conflict.
Tens of thousands of Israeli residents from towns bordering Lebanon have already been evacuated in the past three weeks, as the Israeli military seeks to have greater freedom to operate against Hizbullah.
Hizbullah has threatened to exact a price on Israel as it intensifies its military operation against Hamas, but for now, it appears to be carefully playing with fire, gauging Israel’s response. Hizbullah has admitted that tens of its members have already been killed by Israel. Several Israeli soldiers have been killed as a result of those attacks.
Far stronger than Hamas, Hizbullah is considered by Israel to be its most formidable enemy. Therefore, Israel is hesitant in its response to the recent provocations, even though their potential is deadly.
While it has made the effort to maintain a tense status quo with Israel along the Lebanese border, Hizbullah has strengthened significantly since the war in 2006. In addition to the massive arsenal of missiles it is believed to possess, the organization reportedly has over 100 offensive drones. It has also gained significant combat experience, as it sent many of its soldiers to help stabilize the Assad regime in Syria during its civil war.
Hizbullah is also believed to have improved its precision missile abilities. Israel’s air force is reportedly behind hundreds of airstrikes that have targeted this project. Yet the strikes’ success appears to be limited, as the huge arsenal of missiles is believed to have remained intact.
But Lebanon is also in a dire economic situation, perhaps the worst in its history. Nasrallah and Hizbullah are viewed by the Lebanese people as bearing great responsibility for this, damaging their political reputation. The armed organization is viewed as part of the corrupt ruling class that plunged the country into bankruptcy.
“Nasrallah will have to decide what is more important to him—his image as a prominent leader in the Muslim world or his reputation in Lebanon,” Baram said.
For Israel, the stakes are also high.
A war with Hizbullah would make the current war with Hamas look like a minor conflict. Israel will likely respond with massive airstrikes. In the 2006 war, the Israeli Air Force pounded Beirut, reducing major areas to rubble. In addition to killing approximately 1,300 Lebanese people, the Israeli offensive caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure, making rehabilitation of Lebanon a lengthy endeavor that has never really been completed. Approximately 160 Israelis were killed in the war. Experts estimate that the scenes of missiles hitting large population centers during that war will be multiplied in any future round—with a stronger Hizbullah.
For now, the two sides appear to be testing the waters while trying to contain the conflict. Hizbullah is not using the massive firepower it has to fire large barrages at Israeli cities that have not been evacuated and Israel is not retaliating with the full force of its air force.
All eyes and ears are now on Nasrallah’s Friday speech, where he may expose his intentions.
“This long-used strategy of constructive ambiguity will likely continue,” Wimmen said. “The point is to keep Israelis guessing by keeping that ominous threat hanging there so that the Israelis factor it into their operations, keeping some of their troops tied down and maybe limiting Israeli actions in order to avoid opening another front.”
Meanwhile, the Israelis evacuated from their homes in northern Israel are in limbo. Their date of return remains unknown.
People cannot return to live here as long as Hizbullah’s threat is not removed. An organization that has so many rockets and similar plans to Hamas about the fate of Israel cannot be on its border.
“People cannot return to live here as long as Hizbullah’s threat is not removed,” Zehavi said. “An organization that has so many rockets and similar plans to Hamas about the fate of Israel cannot be on its border.”
This leaves Israel with a very difficult choice of when and if it should operate against that threat.