Progress Made in Talks With Iran, Saudi Foreign Minister Says
Warming relations between the rival regional powers could be beneficial for both, experts say
Progress has been made in the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran aimed at reestablishing diplomatic relations, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said.
Prince Faisal made the statement on Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We have made some progress but not enough,” he said, later adding that: “Our hands are stretched out.”
He also talked about how a “new era of cooperation” could benefit the entire region.
Iran and Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations in 2016 after the Saudi embassy in Teheran was attacked by a crowd of people, following the execution of a high-ranking Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia.
In April 2021, the countries initiated direct talks aimed at restoring relations hosted by Iraq. The fifth round of talks took place in April of this year.
The two countries are broadly perceived as rival regional powers who are competing for regional influence.
However, they could both have reasons for wanting to improve their ties, experts say.
Nivine Afiouni, a geopolitical analyst and CEO of Afiouni Global Consultancy, told The Media Line that Saudi Arabia has suffered from attacks conducted by Iranian-backed militias in neighboring Yemen.
The current truce between the Saudi-backed Arab coalition in support of Yemen’s government and the Houthis is proof that Yemen’s neighbors are working toward peace, which will bring stability to the Yemeni people and the whole region, she explained.
“It sends a strong message to the international community that Riyadh is seeking peace and walks the talk,” she said.
I believe that the Iranian regime is maybe starting to realize that it cannot live in a region with no peaceful relations with its neighbors.
Ghanem Rafeh, a researcher on Iranian affairs at the Emirates Policy Center, said that Saudi Arabia needs to prioritize working toward ending the Yemen civil war.
“The Saudi priority at the moment has to be finding a solution to the conflict in Yemen and addressing continued Houthi aggression against the kingdom,” he told The Media Line.
For Iran, there are also potential benefits from a better relationship with Saudi Arabia, Rhiannon Phillips, an intelligence analyst at the Sibylline risk consultancy firm who focuses on developments in the Middle East and North Africa, told The Media Line.
Iran’s interests in improving bilateral relations, she said, “ultimately stems from a desire to better its economic prosperity and widen regional trade opportunities, to mitigate the impact of its crippling financial crisis amid heavy international sanctions.”
Additionally, Iran is facing massive domestic and foreign pressure, she said.
Phillips explained that the Iranian public is increasingly questioning their regime over the country’s economic revenue, and the money that is sent elsewhere when its own people are struggling with obtaining bread.
Afiouni says that Iran needs to develop relations with countries in the region.
“I believe that the Iranian regime is maybe starting to realize that it cannot live in a region with no peaceful relations with its neighbors,” she said. “That all is in addition to the massive international pressure that involves nuclear activity in Iran,” she added.
Improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could generate a series of developments in the region.
Rafeh says that it may reduce tensions in other countries in the Middle East.
If the cease-fire in Yemen came as a result of a cooling of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is likely the case, and can be a basis for a more sustainable and comprehensive solution in Yemen, he said, “it can be a good foundation to lessen tensions in other areas of competition in the region, such as in Lebanon and Iraq.”
However, Phillips says that while the proxies are perceived as representing an extension of the competing regional influence of Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is unclear how much of an impact improved relations would have on the intensification of proxy fighting.
On the surface, she said, key disputes between Saudi Arabia and Iran often have related to the perceived role that Tehran has played in regional destabilization, namely the funding of Lebanon’s Hizbullah, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis.
Phillips adds that “while it is true that the continued capabilities of these proxies require some state backing, the extent to which Iran directly controls or supports these groups is often exaggerated, and they do enjoy a great degree of autonomy.”
Aside from the issue of proxy conflicts, warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could lead to additional regional geopolitical developments.
As Saudi Arabia is often seen as the leader of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), its rapprochement with Iran could cause other GCC countries to follow.
To a certain degree, pointed out Phillips, several GCC members already maintain relatively stable relations with Iran, despite pressure from Saudi Arabia.
“We’ve seen in recent years a growing independence of GCC foreign policies, namely Qatar and Oman,” she said.
Concerning the United Arab Emirates, whose ties with Iran are more complicated, Rafeh noted that since late 2020 the UAE has strived to engage with sides it previously used to consider regional rivals such as Turkey, Qatar, Israel and Iran. “It is open to resolving any differences with these states,” he said.
If the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement bears clear positive results, he continued, “then I don’t see why the same can’t be done for a potential Emirati-Iranian dialogue.”
Better ties between the two regional powers also could have an influence on the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel.
“An improvement in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran may put the brakes on any potential Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement,” said Rafeh.
In spite of indications that both sides are open to expanding ties, a formal agreement is unlikely in the near future for numerous reasons. A reduction in tensions with Iran will likely be another reason to hold off on any formal agreement between the two sides, he points out.
An improvement in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran may put the brakes on any potential Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement
However, Alexander Jalil, a MENA analyst specializing in the Gulf States, said that Saudi Arabia’s potential normalization process is not dependent on the Iran factor.
Regardless of a rapprochement with Iran, Phillips says, Saudi Arabia has maintained that the normalization of ties, or even the potential of Israel becoming an “ally,” is contingent upon a favorable solution to Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians.
Nevertheless, she added, “it is true that any security guarantees between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be complicated by elevated tensions between Israel and Iran, reinforcing protectionist policies.”
Jalil adds that, regardless of the Saudi relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia could normalize relations with Israel in the future.
Saudi-Israeli synergies also are found in the economic domain, such as in trade, tourism, food and water security, he explained.
“Cooperation with Israel on these files would support Vision 2030 objectives and MbS is therefore expected to normalize with Israel when he sits on the throne,” he said, referring to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and his strategic framework to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil, diversify its economy and develop public service sectors.
Despite the Saudi foreign minister’s declarations, Phillips believes that Iran and Saudi Arabia will not become allies in the near future.
“Critical ideological and political issues remain largely unresolved and unchanged, rendering any prospect of Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming allies unlikely in the near future,” she said.
