Experts say the time is right for rapprochement
ISTANBUL — Turkey and Israel have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to re-establish the diplomatic ties that were suspended five years ago.
“Both sides have something to gain from this, there’s no doubt about that,” says Louis Fishman, a history professor at Brooklyn College with expertise on both Turkey and Israel. He calls the rapprochement “huge.”
According to various media reports, the new agreement between Turkey and Israel, which has not been officially confirmed, will normalize diplomatic relations, including the return of withdrawn ambassadors.
Under the agreement, the Israeli government will reportedly contribute $20 million to a fund to be divided among the families of the ten Turkish activists killed during a fight with Israeli commandoes boarding the Mavi Marmara in 2010. The ship had set out to break Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip.
In exchange, Turkey will cancel any current or future legal claims against members of the Israeli Defense Forces. Additionally, Ankara will limit the Turkey-based activities of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist organization which controls Gaza, and expel senior Hamas member Saleh Al-Aruri from Istanbul.
Turkish Prime Minister (now president) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the time called the incident an act of state terrorism and withdrew Turkey’s ambassador, downgraded diplomatic ties, and suspended military cooperation. Relations between the two countries had already started to degenerate before the incident, after Erdoğan and other Turkish politicians sharply criticized Israeli actions during its 2008-2009 military operation in the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally apologized to Erdoğan in March 2013, though relations remained poor. Erdoğan referred to Zionism as “a crime against humanity,” in 2013, and in 2014 called Israeli politicians “worse than Hitler,” accusing them of genocide in the Gaza Strip.
Turkey and Israel have historically had close ties, and the more recent sour relations stood in stark contrast to the early years of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). In 2006, the Israeli Foreign Ministry described their relationship as “perfect.”
Even during the downturn in relations, trade between the two countries actually grew, reaching over $5.6 billion in 2014, a nearly 50 per cent increase from 2009.
During the still-ongoing negotiations for the current agreement, the Turkish government also reportedly requested an end to the blockade of the Gaza Strip, which many commentators call an unrealistic demand.
“For Israel this is seen as a security issue,” and it will therefore not budge, Professor Fishman told The Media Line.
Analysts speculate that Turkey is attempting to repair its regional relations after its unfruitful Syria policy and the deterioration of ties with Moscow following Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet in November.
“Regional developments and challenges have been compelling Ankara to revise its foreign policy, not only with Israel, but with its neighbors, and the West as well,” Selin Nasi, columnist with the weekly Jewish-Turkish newspaper Şalom, told The Media Line.
“Turkey’s attempts to follow a rather independent foreign policy since the beginning of the Arab Spring despite being a middle-range power resulted in severing ties with its neighbours and the West,” Sasi said. “Turkey has been suffering from political and diplomatic isolation in the region for quite a while. But lately, a number of steps have been taken to mend those ties.”
The major downturn in relations with the Russian government could threaten Turkey’s energy supplies, since it purchases more than half of its natural gas from Russia. Moscow also recently cancelled plans for the Turkish Stream pipeline.
Getting a proposed Israeli gas pipeline to Turkey off the ground could be part of Ankara’s incentive for mending relations.
Fishman says the pipeline project, to be fed from the giant, recently-discovered Leviathan field, is “a game-changer,” and would be difficult to implement without a mending of relations with Israel.
“This seems like it could be a major project,” he told The Media Line.
Nasi stresses that Israel also needs customers to sell its gas to, especially after another recently-discovered natural gas field near Egypt strikes Cairo from Israel’s list of potential customers.
“It’s a pressing issue for Israel to find alternative markets,” she said.
Fishman says a further incentive for Turkey to normalize relations with Israel is to increase its standing with the West, in particular, with the United States.
“Turkey will be seen as a country that’s moving forward,” he said. “Ties with Israel go far with Washington,” which may turn a blind eye when it comes to Turkey’s costly war with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the southeast.
Ankara’s desire for a rapprochement with Israel may also be a factor in recent efforts to improve its relationship with Turkey’s 17,000-strong Jewish community.
On December 6, the last day of Hanukkah, a menorah-lighting ceremony was publicly held in Istanbul for the first time in the history of the Turkish republic. In January, Holocaust victims were mourned in a much larger than usual ceremony. In February, the 768 Jewish refugees who died near Istanbul in the 1942 sinking of the ship, Struma, were commemorated officially for the first time. In March, a major restoration of the Great Synagogue in Edirne was completed.
“It’s a very good move to win the hearts and minds of the Jewish community and to polish Turkey’s image as a tolerant Muslim country,” Nasi said.
However, there is still a significant problem with anti-Semitism in the country.
“Especially at times of conflict between Israel and Turkey, the loyalty of Jewish people towards the state is questioned ever more. There is a widespread misperception of Turkish Jews holding dual citizenships, voting at the Israeli elections and even being exempt from military service,” according to Nasi. But, she added, “None of these reflect the truth, of course.”
Hate speech, often from politicians and media outlets, is also of concern.
“There is an ambivalence on behalf of the government regarding hate speech and punishment of those involved,” Nasi said.
She expresses the belief that a rapprochement with Israel is a very positive step for Turkey’s Jewish community, while stressing that she doesn’t officially speak for them.
“It does affect us,” she said. “We’re hopeful and we’re looking forward to normalization of ties between the two countries.”
Nasi says it makes good strategic sense for Turkey to mend ties with Israel, and it will be politically easier now that the end of the election season until 2019 reduces anti-Israeli rhetoric. “From my point of view,” she said, “right now conditions are perfect for the two countries to start normalization,” so long as they can reach an agreement on the Gaza embargo.
However, Nasi says relations will remain fragile due to certain political realities in both countries.
“As long as the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains unsolved and the Islamist-oriented ideological core prevails in Turkey, bilateral ties in my opinion will remain vulnerable to a new crisis,” she said. “That’s the bottom line.”