Russia-Ukraine Talks Boost Turkey’s Geopolitical Value

Istanbul hosts latest round of negotiations to end month-long war as Ukraine suggests Turkey as one of its security guarantors 

Turkey’s geopolitical value is on the rise, analysts told The Media Line, as it hosted the latest meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators on Tuesday.

The talks in Istanbul were the first in-person meetings between the sides in more than two weeks.

Moscow said during the meeting that it would significantly decrease its attacks near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and the northern city of Chernihiv.

Ukraine offered to accept a neutral status in exchange for international security guarantees, specifying Turkey as one of several countries that could enforce such a guarantee, similar to NATO’s 5th article which states that an attack on one member is an attack on the entire alliance.

Daria Isachenko, an expert on Turkey and Russia at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told The Media Line that while the details of how the guarantee would work have not been clarified, it is unlikely Turkey would want such a role because it would want to maintain its neutrality and relations with Russia.

“I don’t think either Turkey or Russia would like to face each other in Ukraine,” she said.

After the talks, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara again urged both sides to agree to a cease-fire and said maritime safety was discussed, a key concern for Turkey, which has a large coastline on the Black Sea, south of Ukraine and Russia.

“This is also a sign of trust felt for Turkey and we are aware of the responsibility of the trust for us,” Cavusoglu said.

Turkey is at the center of this diplomatic activity and I think we can also say it has become the main communication channel

Isachenko believes the Russian acceptance of Turkey as the host of the talks was a gesture to thank it for its neutral stance and shows that Moscow wants to maintain ties.

“It does boost Turkey’s diplomatic stance,” she said.

“Turkey is at the center of this diplomatic activity and I think we can also say it has become the main communication channel,” she added.

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey had supported Kyiv by allowing for the export of drones that Ukrainian forces have successfully used against Russia.

At the same time, Turkey has not imposed sanctions against Russia and has held talks with officials in the country, including a phone call between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday.

Ankara’s relationship with its Western allies has been strained for years over its strengthening relations with Moscow.

Turkey’s purchase of a Russian anti-missile defense system, the S-400, led the US to kick Turkey out of the F-35 fighter jet program.

Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute, told The Media Line he believes that Turkey would accept a role as a security guarantor because it would see it as a boost to its role in the region and gain respect from the West.

Ramani said Turkey has tried to use the talks to show itself as a constructive member of NATO and a country with significant geopolitical value.

“It can showcase itself as both a major power and player in both the Black Sea region … and the broader Eurasian region,” he said. “This is about regional power status, projection.”

Ramani believed Israel and Azerbaijan were more likely to be accepted by Russia as a mediator.

Erdogan addressed the delegations before the talks, urging a cease-fire.

Sitting in the audience next to the Turkish president’s spokesperson was Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who was sanctioned by the United Kingdom, where he used to live, over his relationship with Putin. Abramovich also holds Israeli citizenship.

The Wall Street Journal and Bellingcat reported on Monday that the billionaire and members of the Ukrainian delegation had suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning earlier this month after a previous round of negotiations.

Ukraine will continue its dialogue with Turkey and other stakeholders to restore peace on Ukrainian soil. We hope that Turkey, as a friend and strategic partner of Ukraine, will also continue its support on all tracks.

However, Ukrainian officials have raised doubts about the report and the Reuters news agency reported that a US official blamed “environmental” factors for the symptoms.

Ramani said that Turkey has not faced much pressure from the West to sanction Russia or its oligarchs.

“They realize that Turkey can play a role as a de-escalating force between the two sides and it doesn’t want to burn that channel and burn that bridge at this time,” he said.

Ukraine previously rebuked Ankara for its comments about the progress of negotiations, stating that there was no agreement on points mentioned by Turkey and emphasized the significance of sanctions against Russia.

“In general, the classification of key topics of negotiations into four or other points is incorrect,” Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote in a statement from March 25.

“Ukraine will continue its dialogue with Turkey and other stakeholders to restore peace on Ukrainian soil. We hope that Turkey, as a friend and strategic partner of Ukraine, will also continue its support on all tracks,” the statement also said.