On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, hailing the “strategic partnership” between their countries and expressing gratitude for the UAE’s role in mediating prisoner exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The two leaders discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine as well as escalating violence in the Middle East. Formal talks continued on Monday.
Putin specifically praised the UAE for its efforts in facilitating multiple prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, the most recent of which occurred last Friday, with each side repatriating 95 prisoners. The UAE confirmed that this marked its ninth successful mediation in such exchanges since the war began, reflecting the Gulf nation’s increasingly prominent diplomatic role.
The growing strategic ties between Russia and the UAE hold significant implications for the region, especially with the Middle East embroiled in conflict, particularly involving Israel in Gaza and southern Lebanon. What does this growing partnership mean, and why has the UAE emerged as a key mediator in international conflicts?
Experts shared the following insights with The Media Line:
According to Dr. Nikolai Topornin, a Russian expert in international relations and geopolitics, there is no single factor driving the relationship between the two countries.
For Russia, the UAE has become a very important outpost in the Middle East. But above all, since 2022, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Dubai has turned into a financial capital for Russia’s international settlements.
“For Russia, the UAE has become a very important outpost in the Middle East. But above all, since 2022, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Dubai has turned into a financial capital for Russia’s international settlements,” he noted.
We know that many financial sanctions were introduced, restrictions on the use of SWIFT, on the use of dollars and euros in settlements. As a result, Dubai became a financial lifeline for Russia. For a time, all settlements with third countries, especially those involving dollars or euros, went through Dubai.
“We know that many financial sanctions were introduced, restrictions on the use of SWIFT, on the use of dollars and euros in settlements. As a result, Dubai became a financial lifeline for Russia. For a time, all settlements with third countries, especially those involving dollars or euros, went through Dubai,” Topornin shared.
Although secondary US sanctions have complicated these transactions, Topornin explained that “Russia and the Emirates now settle either in dirhams or rubles, so financial channels continue to exist.”
Dr. Nikolay Kozhanov, research associate professor at Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Center, emphasized that the term “partnership” might not be the most accurate to describe the two countries’ ties; instead, he suggested “pragmatic interaction.”
He said that the UAE’s relationship with Russia is part of the country’s broader strategy to diversify its foreign policy.
“It’s just more falling in the attempt of the Emirates to diversify its foreign policies, to make it more reliant on different players, and to gain more profit from this diversity of international contacts. Definitely, Russia turned to Asia as a result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which provided the Emirates with a certain profit.”
The Emirates is a kind of a springboard for Russian petrochemicals and oil to Asia and Africa. It’s definitely a source of a loophole in the sanctions regime against Russia, and by serving as a kind of a way for parallel imports to Russia, the UAE is getting additional profit.
Kozhanov pointed to the UAE’s role in helping Russia circumvent international sanctions: “The Emirates is a kind of a springboard for Russian petrochemicals and oil to Asia and Africa. It’s definitely a source of a loophole in the sanctions regime against Russia, and by serving as a kind of a way for parallel imports to Russia, the UAE is getting additional profit.”
Topornin also underscored the significance of the oil market in shaping the two countries’ relationship. “The UAE and Saudi Arabia are key oil producers in the Middle East, forming the world oil market, and Russia is part of OPEC+. For Russia, stability in the oil market is crucial because much of the country’s budget depends on oil and gas revenues,” he explained.
“It’s vital for Russia to have stability to understand what future income they can expect, so avoiding any crisis scenarios in oil prices is a top priority,” Topornin emphasized.
Despite this pragmatic interaction, Kozhanov noted that it does not mean the two nations are building an unbreakable alliance. “There is a clear understanding in the Emirates that this interaction is not an attempt to build up a kind of ironclad block. It’s just a very pragmatic approach to use those opportunities that are provided by the international situation,” he said.
“In the region, for instance, we definitely see them cooperating in Libya, but at the same time, they have quite different views on Sudan. Russia supports the official government, while the UAE is supporting the opposing force. Their interests, despite cooperation, are not 100% overlapping,” Kozhanov added.
Addressing the UAE’s surprising role in mediating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine, Topornin remarked: “Who would have thought that the UAE would play such a role? European intermediaries, Chinese or Indian mediators, and even countries like Britain and Brazil haven’t managed to achieve much in practical terms here. But the UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, has filled this important mediating function.”
Topornin also hinted at rumors of discreet meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Dubai: “We can’t say these are regular or formal, but we understand that even prisoner exchanges require some form of interaction. So, it’s likely that in Dubai, behind closed doors, such contacts are taking place.”
According to Kozhanov, it’s clear that such mediation efforts serve to enhance the UAE’s global standing. “It’s more to show on the international arena the political weight of the Emirates themselves. It’s not about helping Russia or helping Ukraine,” he said.
It should also be considered within the framework of a greater competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis are holding this peace conference, the UAE is trying to compete with them by playing the role of the mediator.
“It should also be considered within the framework of a greater competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. While the Saudis are holding this peace conference, the UAE is trying to compete with them by playing the role of the mediator,” Kozhanov added.
Kozhanov also mentioned that Russia’s military ties with Iran, while important, have not shifted the balance of power in the region.
“We don’t see any serious supplies of sophisticated weapons coming from Russia due to the war, and I don’t think we’ll see them anytime soon,” he said.
“The Gulf countries, including the UAE, are trying to navigate very carefully. On the one hand, they need to pay attention to the demands of their own populations, which are no doubt supporting Palestine and the Palestinians. But on the other hand, they are extremely pragmatic, and they are trying to stick to their interests that are naturally bringing them closer to Israel,” Kozhanov explained.