The Israeli government will be carefully watching for the results of this week’s election in Britain to see if one of their closest allies in Europe is unseated. The United Kingdom is voting in its least predictable election in decades in a contest which may see David Cameron, Conservative Prime Minister since 2010, pushed out of 10 Downing Street by Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour Party.
If elected to office, Miliband would become the first Jewish British Prime Minister in 135 years, and only the second to ever hold office. Yet despite this, a recent poll found just 13% of British Jews supported Miliband, with an overwhelming preference amongst them for the incumbent, Cameron.
Cameron has been described in some Israeli media as the most pro-Israel Prime Minister Britain has ever had. “David Cameron has been very supportive of Israel – during Operation Protective Edge he supported Israel’s right to defend itself,” Azriel Bermant, a Research Associate from the Institute for National Security Studies told The Media Line. Bermant emphasised the appreciation Jerusalem felt for Cameron’s tough line on Iran during negotiations over the country’s nuclear research program and said that the British Prime Minister is probably one of Binyamin Netanyahu’s closest allies in Europe. This in the context of a Europe increasingly frustrated with Israeli policy, makes Cameron an important ally.
Unable to win an outright majority in 2010, Cameron formed a government from his right-wing Conservative Party and the smaller centrist Liberal Democrats. This represented the first coalition government in the UK since Winston Churchill’s government in the Second World War, due to the electoral system which favours strong majority governments. In a country used to having two and a half parties to choose from, the electorate now have as much as seven options on ballot day, leading to a great deal of uncertainty as to what will happen come the 8th of May. But as for the next Prime Minister of Britain, there are only two real options.
Ed Miliband is seen as less supportive of Israel than his rival, after comments he made during last summer’s fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip criticising Israeli actions and statements saying that he would recognise a Palestinian state. There is some speculation that if he were to become Prime Minister this might sour the alliance between Israel and Britain.
Evidence for the closeness of the current UK government to the Netanyahu administration can be seen in David Cameron’s visit to Israel and address to the Knesset in March last year, Marcus Sheff, a political commentator told The Media Line. “Cameron is perceived warmly. His visit was covered widely by local media and his humour during his speech at the Knesset was appreciated by politicians and the wider public,” Sheff explained.
Sheff went on to say that the strong relationship between the UK and Israel was based on more than just how well their respective leaders got along. He stressed that in the areas of diplomacy and intelligence sharing the countries were closely institutionally linked and this would not change simply due to the introduction of new leadership. Trade and military ties are also important links.
For this reason, Sheff is sceptical whether a change of Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street would make a large difference, irrespective of comments in the media that Ed Miliband, Cameron’s challenger, is cooler towards Israel in outlook. “Like all bilateral relationships, the relationship is on multiple levels – it is superficial to think that relations will change between two states just because the Prime Minister has changed.” Sheff also points out that this is based on an assumption that Miliband is anti-Israeli. “Ed Miliband is an unknown quantity (to Israelis),” Sheff says. “Time will tell” how he really perceives the country.
Miliband has been the Labour leader since he defeated his brother, David Miliband, in a leadership contest in 2010. The son of a Marxist academic, Miliband has strong left-wing credentials and has been seen by some to take the Labour Party towards its more traditional territory, reversing the centrist-inclinations of Tony Blair in the previous decade.
A change of Prime Minister for Britain would likely lead to a shift in tone towards Israel, rather than an actual policy alteration, says Bermant. Cameron and Miliband’s views on settlements in the West Bank, the need for a two-state solution and the correct way to deal with Iran are very similar. The change in leadership, he suggests, would be felt in a difference in tone and rhetoric rather than action. This might be especially noticeable during any future conflicts Israel could find itself in, in Gaza or along its northern border, Bermant said. In such a situation Israel might find that the UK was less willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.
The UK has historical baggage in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as it was the withdrawal of the British Mandate in 1948 that led to the creation of the Israeli state.
Perhaps what is most interesting, from an Israeli point of view, is not what Israelis themselves think of the proceedings but how British Jews are viewing them, especially in a time when Jews across Europe are feeling under pressure following a rise in reports of anti-Semitic attacks. A poll conducted last month on behalf of the Jewish Chronicle found that 69% of British Jews said they would be voting conservative and 72% said that the government’s attitude towards Israel was “very important” or “quite important” in deciding how they would vote.
Historically both the Labour Party and the Conservatives have a mixed record of support for Israel. But in domestic affairs this is not the case. Three generations ago British Jews were synonymous with the Labour Party, Sheff told The Media Line. This changed in the 1970s with Margret Thatcher, Britain’s first and only female Prime Minister. Thatcher had a large Jewish electorate in her constituency and respected the community due to her “meritocracy based ideology.” This plus the “gentrification of Anglo-Jewry” – British Jews, like the average Conservative voter, are generally older and wealthier than the British norm – opened up the Conservatives as an option, said Sheff.