US President Joe Biden is down to his final three months in office, which could significantly shape the future of the Middle East.
As a president approaches the end of their term, they enter what’s often called a “lame duck period”—when they’re still in office but already looking toward the exit. Paradoxically, this phase can offer presidents a unique freedom to act boldly, as they face fewer political risks and more opportunities to solidify their legacy.
Following his humiliating removal from the presidential race, Biden’s legacy may feel more important than ever. He faced accusations of senility and was ultimately replaced by a candidate who was basically anointed from within rather than elected by the members of the Democratic Party.
The best place right now when it comes to foreign policy is Israel
One way to secure his legacy may be through foreign policy. As Dr. Eric Mandel, founder and director of the Middle East Political and Information Network, said, “The best place right now when it comes to foreign policy is Israel.”
Will Biden follow the path of President Bill Clinton, who pushed for a peace agreement in his final months in 2001? Or will he take a page from President Barack Obama, whose administration abstained from a 2016 UN Security Council vote declaring all Israeli settlement beyond the 1949 armistice line a “flagrant violation” of international law—taking a stab at Israel?
Biden is a Zionist, and if he really cares about Israel’s existential issues, he knows the No. 1 issue is Iran
“Biden is a Zionist, and if he really cares about Israel’s existential issues, he knows the No. 1 issue is Iran,” Mandel said.
So far, the United States has supported Israel in defending against the Islamic terrorist regime, including during two of the most significant ballistic missile attacks in Israel’s history. However, Mandel suggests that Biden might want to change course as part of his legacy, helping Israel go on the offensive to reshape the region’s trajectory. Iran, after all, is not only anti-Israel but is also the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism and a major source of instability in the Middle East.
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Mandel speculated that Biden may decide Iran has had “enough chances” and could supply Israel with the 30,000-pound bombs needed to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. This action might not destroy Iran’s nuclear program, but it could set it back significantly.
“Biden asked Israel to hold back from attacking Iranian nuclear or energy facilities [when it struck Iran last month] to keep gas prices down before the election,” explained former Knesset Member Alon Tal. “Now, with Harris’ loss, he no longer has that concern.”
Recently, Biden sent additional fighter and attack aircraft squadrons to the region. Tal believes this suggests “there may be a willingness, if not for America to join Israel in Iran, then at least to give us a freer hand.”
An attack on Iran could escalate into a wider regional conflict. But as Mandel noted: “I don’t think Biden would want to create a regional war. However, if his actions led to one, he would know he’d be handing it off to Trump.”
A cease-fire deal?
Additionally, Biden might pursue a stronger push for a cease-fire-for-hostage deal with Hamas, aiming to be remembered as the president who ended a war rather than leaving office with one still raging—especially a war that began during his term.
A source close to the Biden administration told The Media Line that the administration continues to maintain regular contact with Hamas.
Although the administration has been actively working to secure a deal for more than the past six months, no new agreement has been reached. Currently, 101 hostages remain in Gaza, with approximately two-thirds believed to be alive.
He will try to secure a peace agreement so that this achievement will be his and not Trump’s
“He will try to secure a peace agreement so that this achievement will be his and not Trump’s,” Tal said.
Prof. Benjamin Miller from the University of Haifa added that Biden might even push for a civilian governance plan in Gaza as part of that deal, potentially replacing Hamas after the cease-fire deal with a mix of international, Arab, and local municipal authorities—possibly alongside the Palestinian Authority.
If Biden chooses the “Obama route,” Mandel noted, this could involve increasing pressure on Israel internationally, with heightened rhetoric about the plight of Palestinians. This approach might also mean pushing Israel to allow more food and aid into Gaza, despite known issues with supplies being intercepted and used by Hamas—keeping the organization alive.
“Only Biden can decide,” Mandel concluded.