Seventeen days into the war between Hamas and Israel, the region is holding its breath before what could be a turning point in the conflict.
The Israeli government and all the senior military brass have vowed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would enter the Gaza Strip to reach the objective set by the government: stripping Hamas of its military capabilities and dismantling its regime.
As the horrors of the surprise offensive carried out by the Hamas terrorist organization over two weeks ago emerged, the Israeli public was enraged, and its government vowed to exact a heavy price on Hamas. Over 300,000 military reservists were called up for duty, and the IDF has amassed its forces along Israel’s southern border with the Gaza Strip.
Over the past two weeks, the IDF has also called on Gaza residents in the northern part of the enclave to evacuate to the south. Since military forces are likely to enter Gaza from the north, they are trying to make that area less densely populated with those uninvolved in the fighting.
Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Israelis have either been forced out of their homes that were obliterated by the Hamas offensive or evacuated by authorities from areas that are believed to be in imminent danger.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israelis to be prepared for a lengthy and difficult war. The vast number of Israelis killed by the Hamas offensive, approximately 1,400, in addition to the many of reservists and those serving their mandatory military service, makes this waiting game very personal for many Israelis. A small country with a population of a little over 9 million means that almost everyone has been touched by this tragedy.
All these factors have Israel on edge.
On Sunday, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the IDF, said that the military had completed its preparations and was waiting for the green light from the government.
Seventeen days of incessant Israeli Air Force airstrikes, carried out to mitigate the risk to ground troops once they enter Gaza, have reduced many areas in the territory to rubble. With the military on the border appearing ready to pounce, there is a feeling among many Israelis that the wait is longer than they expected.
“There is a point when there is corrosion, a burn-out of the forces and a decrease in their awareness, but also a feeling of a loss of purpose,” said Professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “The Israeli army is not at that point just yet.”
According to Shamir, who is also an expert in military strategy, such a period of waiting could benefit the army. Highly dependent on its reserve forces, time is needed to prepare for a ground offensive in Gaza.
The time needs to be taken advantage of in order to stock up on the necessary equipment, train the forces, and study the territory
“The time needs to be taken advantage of in order to stock up on the necessary equipment, train the forces, and study the territory,” Shamir added. “The IDF still has a lot of gaps to bridge. Many of the reservists don’t have the necessary combat training.”
For years, Israel has neglected its reservist army. While it is an expensive endeavor to keep a reservist army fit for battle, there has also been an erosion in the willingness of Israelis to show up for noncombat duty, which has had a direct impact on their training. Additionally, Israel’s tendency to face its regional threats, including Hamas, with mainly air power, as shown in previous conflicts, has resulted in an army that is less prepared for ground operations.
When Hamas surprised Israel on Oct. 7, it likely banked on an Israeli retaliation, including a ground operation. The terrorist organization is believed to have a large underground tunnel web that could pose a serious challenge to the IDF.
“Israel is wary of urban warfare,” said Shamir. “In general, armies do not like such warfare in which the enemy has an easier time defending itself by booby-trapping buildings, planning ambushes, and operating from underground.”
Israel’s surprise on that morning, when more than 1,000 Hamas terrorists infiltrated the south of the country, taking over communities for days, has not only scarred the country but also put a wedge between the political and defense echelons. The huge intelligence blunder may be gnawing at Netanyahu, who must make a crucial decision based on the assessments of the very bodies that failed to foresee Hamas’ intentions.
Israel is also under American pressure to delay its ground offensive. This could be one of the reasons Israel is holding back. In need of American support, Netanyahu may be considering Washington’s position more than Israelis would like. There has been criticism of this in the country, a population scarred and angered by Hamas’ murderous actions.
“The US is pushing Israel to delay,” Professor Eugene Kontorovich, director of the International Law Department at the Kohelet Policy Forum, told The Media Line. “Israel is doing things consistent with the American pressure. It is inappropriate for the US to hold Israel back at this time. When you delay something in the Middle East, it may never happen.”
The Israeli government has agreed to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip since the weekend when Hamas released two American hostages that it took captive as part of its offensive. The two women, American citizens, were among 220 hostages being held by Hamas, most of them Israeli civilians.
Israel’s agreement to allow a steady trickle of humanitarian aid through a safe corridor in the southern Gaza Strip was received with widespread criticism in the country, even from within Netanyahu’s government.
“My parents didn’t have any humanitarian corridor when they were brutally murdered,” Or Tzuk, a resident of a kibbutz in southern Israel, said in a televised interview on Israel’s Channel 12 last week. “There was nothing humanitarian about my brother laying in my mother’s blood for seven hours.”
According to Kontorovich, “The US is treating Israel like it wouldn’t treat any other country in the world.” He also believes that US President Biden has his own domestic political interests in mind. Additionally, as the Hamas-Israel conflict has the potential to grow into a wider regional conflict involving Iran, the US has a greater interest.
Hamas is funded and supported by Iran. Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, praised Hamas for its attack on Israel.
“Biden understands that due to the barbaric nature of the attacks, he can’t really prevent Israel from taking action,” said Kontorovich. “But his signature policy of rapprochement with Iran and these Iranian-backed attacks greatly embarrass and compromise that policy, making it look bad. We shouldn’t assume he has given up that policy.”
If the war with Hamas spills over into other areas in the region, as Israel and the US are clearly preparing for, Biden could find himself in a confrontation with Iran.
There have been reports that US officials have asked Israel to delay the attack, but there appears to be an understanding that Israel cannot avoid a ground operation.
“There is no real American pressure, in fact the US agrees in principle on the need for such an operation,” said Shamir. “There are likely many considerations, including operative ones, for the delay.”
The hostages are also a likely consideration for the Israeli government. The flow of humanitarian assistance is indicative of behind-the-scenes moves that may be underway. Netanyahu may still believe there is a window of opportunity to release the hostages before deciding to send Israeli boots on the ground, boots that would complicate any future negotiation.
In the past, Israel has paid a high price for the release of much fewer hostages. Hamas’ overachievement in this case could make the price that Israel is willing to pay unrealistic.
“For Israel, this is a small part of its considerations. The whole country understands that negotiating or giving into Hamas’ demands could be an existential threat, putting every citizen’s life in danger,” said Kontorovich. “Hamas took these hostages to delay or deter an Israeli ground invasion. Countries pressuring Israel to do so are playing into Hamas’ hands.”
Meanwhile, as a country at war, the ramifications are far-reaching. War is expensive. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have reported for military duty left their jobs and families, adding to the financial toll of the war. Businesses are reporting a drastic drop in revenue as many Israelis remain home, not spending money on anything other than necessities.
There needs to be a debate on how much Israel is willing to pay to bring the economy to a situation in which the citizens will have to make a lot of sacrifices in terms of the services they get from the country
“There is a great burden on the economy, and this also needs to be taken into consideration when deciding on the length of the operation,” said Shamir. “There needs to be a debate on how much Israel is willing to pay to bring the economy to a situation in which the citizens will have to make a lot of sacrifices in terms of the services they get from the country.”
According to Shamir, “Israel is far from the point of its economy collapsing, and there is plenty of breathing room. But Israel has no choice other than eradicating Hamas, and this can only be done by using almost all its force.”
The chances of a ground operation not happening are slim, but as the days and hours go by, this could also be a possible scenario.
“That would be a diplomatic, political and security catastrophe for Israel,” said Kontorovich.