Against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile international landscape, the Iranian economy continues to buckle under the weight of US-imposed sanctions, compounded by global instability driven in part by Washington’s trade disputes with China, Europe, and other key players.
Iran is grappling with rampant inflation, the collapse of its currency, soaring unemployment, and a deepening erosion of public trust. The sanctions reimposed by the Trump administration following its 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal have severely crippled Iran’s oil, banking, and industrial sectors. Despite European efforts to salvage economic ties with Tehran, the practical impact has been minimal, leaving Iran largely isolated and burdened by both internal dysfunction and external pressure.
Last month, the US Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions targeting an international network facilitating oil shipments between Iran and China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent underscored the administration’s hardline approach, declaring: “We will eliminate Iran’s oil industry and collapse its economy.”
Bessent echoed remarks made earlier at an economic conference in New York, reiterating the administration’s objective to slash Iran’s oil exports—which currently stand at around 1.5 million barrels per day—and cut off Tehran’s access to the global financial system. He even advised Iranian citizens to “exchange your local money,” a stark indicator of Washington’s strategy to provoke internal economic upheaval.
In this climate, negotiations with Washington have become a high-stakes strategic instrument. From Tehran’s perspective, engaging in talks without meaningful sanctions relief would be tantamount to surrender; from Trump’s perspective, securing direct dialogue would constitute a diplomatic triumph.
From Israel’s vantage point, however, the objective remains unequivocal: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Jerusalem fears that negotiations between Washington and Tehran could produce a partial agreement that eases pressure on Iran without dismantling its nuclear infrastructure. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime critic of the original nuclear accord, remains committed to maintaining maximum pressure on Tehran and avoiding premature concessions. Yet he also recognizes that the US has broader global interests, and Israel may not be able to sway every detail of the unfolding negotiations.
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While Trump and Netanyahu projected unity at their last meeting, underlying differences persist. Trump, eager for a diplomatic win, may ultimately accept a deal that Israel deems inadequate. Netanyahu, in turn, is unlikely to stand idly by if Iran retains any nuclear capabilities under such an arrangement.
The latest round of US-Iran nuclear talks concluded last Saturday after several hours of indirect negotiations in Oman. However, according to Iranian sources, a brief direct exchange reportedly occurred between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, in the presence of Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. Iranian officials confirmed that throughout the main discussions, delegations remained in separate rooms, with Albusaidi acting as an intermediary.
Trump has consistently stated his preference for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomacy. “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars,” he declared in his election-night victory speech—a message heard clearly in both Jerusalem and Tehran. But with Iran accelerating its nuclear activities, urgency has escalated. Trump has intensified his rhetoric, warning that if Iran refuses a deal, it will face bombings “like it has never seen before,” even suggesting a joint US-Israeli operation in which “Israel will lead.” The threat has been reinforced by the deployment of American strategic and stealth bombers to the region.
Despite the strong alliance, Israel is preparing for the possibility that it may have to act independently to protect its security. The prospect of military confrontation looms large—particularly if economic pressure fails to yield political results. Incidents in the Persian Gulf, drone shoot-downs, and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure all suggest that Iran is willing to engage in calibrated aggression to raise the cost of continued sanctions on itself and its allies. If talks falter or stall, and either side perceives a breach of the informal rules of engagement, the risk of open conflict will rise sharply.
Israel continues to prepare for the possibility of direct or proxy confrontation, particularly via Hezbollah or Shiite militias in Syria. Meanwhile, Iran is not remaining passive—it has reportedly transferred long-range missiles to Iraq capable of reaching Europe, sending a clear message to both Washington and Jerusalem. Tehran has not abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and its repeated calls for the destruction of the “Zionist entity” are a stark reminder of its intentions. The international community must act decisively, using every available lever—including the reimposition of crippling sanctions—to constrain this threat.
Talks are scheduled to resume this coming weekend in Rome. The French government has already declared, alongside Britain and Germany, that it will closely monitor the negotiations to ensure they align with European security interests. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot made this clear during a recent EU foreign ministers’ summit in Luxembourg.
In parallel, it was recently revealed that the Israeli Air Force chief, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, was hosted by the Pentagon. Given Israel’s deepening concerns, it’s likely these meetings focused on a central question: What happens if the diplomatic track with Iran collapses?
Whether these talks result in meaningful progress or amount to little more than political theater, they unfold amid profound global uncertainty—economic, strategic, and military. While Israel continues to push for a robust, uncompromising stance, it is also quietly preparing for the possibility of unilateral action. Is there a chance for an agreement? Certainly. Is there a real risk of escalation? Absolutely.
David Ben Basat (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)