Since a number of its leaders fled abroad, the Muslim Brotherhood appears to be living in an isolated bubble, detached from reality. Its media messaging and the activity of its online committees point to a clear state of confusion rooted in false assumptions, while its organizational cells are showing signs of collapse both inside and outside the country.
No one disputes the scale of the economic and social challenges confronting Egypt, yet the Brotherhood insists on peddling falsehoods and inflammatory rumors rather than engaging with these challenges as issues requiring realistic solutions. History shows that the chaos such groups seek to ignite leads only to devastation, and that societies pushed into the unknown rarely recover unscathed.
The Brotherhood’s discourse remains imprisoned by the same conspiratorial mindset that has dogged the organization since its founding. Nearly fifteen years after the January events, the group has failed to comprehend the profound transformations the state has undergone, or to recognize that Egypt is a firmly rooted state, unmoved by fabricated reports or voices broadcasting from abroad, drawing its resilience from established institutions and deep historical foundations. This is a reality the group has consistently failed to grasp, persisting in dealing with the state through the narrow logic of an organization rather than the responsibilities of governance.
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The Brotherhood’s gravest mistake was its belief that power could be exercised from the Guidance Bureau, the Brotherhood’s highest executive body, instead of through official state institutions. This miscalculation marked the beginning of its unraveling, followed by an escalation in terrorist operations that ultimately backfired, turning the group into both a security and intellectual liability at home and abroad. As terrorist attacks increased, so too did the cohesion between the public, the army, and the police, and the state’s resolve to confront violence decisively became unmistakable. The Brotherhood did not stop there, instead seeking backing from abroad and adopting a narrative that portrayed Egypt as a country in turmoil.
Reality, however, proved far sturdier than propaganda transmitted from exile. Egypt consolidated its regional and international standing, built one of the strongest military forces in the region, and preserved the unity of its territory. By contrast, the group’s overseas maneuvers resembled little more than desperate bids for relevance, yielding a steady erosion of international sympathy and prompting many countries to designate it a terrorist organization.
Internally, the January events marked a critical turning point, granting the group an opportunity to govern but exposing the fragility of its project and the poverty of its political vision. With the fall of figures from its historic leadership generation and the disintegration of internal cohesion under the weight of judicial rulings and factional splits, it became evident that the organization had lost its center of gravity and had nothing substantive left to offer.
In hindsight, January can be seen as both the beginning and the end of the Brotherhood: the start of a rapid ascent and the conclusion of a dramatic collapse, bringing to an end illusions that had persisted since its inception. The group entered power under the banner of preaching and exited under the stigma of terrorism, taking with it the claims of “virtue” it long promoted and that many had accepted at face value. Today, the Egyptian state continues to press forward despite ongoing challenges, while the Brotherhood remains trapped in the rhetoric of the past, incapable of reading a reality that no longer acknowledges its presence
Karam Gabr (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)