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Gaza Analysts Believe Israel’s Hamas Crackdown will Fail

Some see kidnappings as “legitimate right of resistance”

[Gaza City] — As the Israeli military campaign to find three teenage boys the prime minister says were kidnapped by Hamas continues across the West Bank for a second week, Gaza-based analysts are predicting that Israel’s simultaneous crackdown on the Islamist movement is doomed to failure.

As of Monday morning, almost 350 Palestinians had been rounded up by soldiers, two-thirds of whom are aligned with Hamas. Not limited to the West Bank, the campaign also targets the Gaza Strip, the area ruled by Hamas from the time it wrestled the enclave away from Fatah and the Palestinian Authority in 2007 until the recent reconciliation, in an effort to weaken the organization.

During the past week, Israeli warplanes have flown numerous sorties against targets it says belong to Hamas and other organizations as part of its onslaught against the Islamist group.

Yet, despite the allegations by Israeli officials and the ongoing military operations underway in the West Bank and Gaza, Hamas continues to deny any linkage to the disappearance of the three abductees. In Hamas’ reckoning, the kidnapping of Israeli “settlers” – residents of communities located in areas Israel conquered in the 1967 war and claimed by the Palestinians for their state-in-formation, as are the three kidnap victims – is considered “a right for the Palestinian resistance” by those who argue that Israel’s detention of an estimated 5,000 Palestinian prisoners, of which 150 are being held in administrative detention without being charged, levels the playing field. The kidnappings, which come against the backdrop of a hunger strike by the administrative detainees that is now in its second month, is seen by many Palestinians as a legitimate mechanism through which to gain the release of prisoners, most recently more than 1,000 to repatriate soldier Gilad Shalit  following five years in Hamas captivity.

Israeli Finance Minister Yair Lapid told Israeli Channel 2 television that the search operations will continue with three main goals: freeing the three teens; destroying the Hamas infrastructure; and undermining the recent Hamas-Fatah unity deal.

In the Gaza Strip meanwhile, Hamas-organized demonstrations have been held in various parts of the coastal enclave to object to the Israeli crackdown and to reject Palestinian Authority President Abbas’s cooperation with Israeli security. Israeli sources have reported that the army’s actions in Hebron and elsewhere are being carried out in coordination with the PA.

“What is going on now over the West Bank and Gaza goes far beyond the recent 'vague' disappearance of the settlers,” Dr. Yousef Rezqa, former political adviser to Ismail Haniyyah, who served as prime minister of the Hamas government in Gaza until the unity government took over, told The Media Line. “Such Israeli military operations are apparently aimed at eradicating the Islamist stream in the West Bank and annexing the West Bank areas into the present-day Israel,” he said.

Asked how he views President Abbas's remarks about security coordination, Rezqa replied that, “At the national Palestinian level, such a stance by Abbas is very weak and has bred people's anger. This is a very negative response by Abbas and I believe that he should have focused on the Israeli settlement activities and Israeli Judaization of occupied east Jerusalem, instead.”

He explained that “Hamas is a national liberation movement. I believe the people are in support of Hamas and I do not think that there will be elections in a period of six months due to the fact that files of conciliation between Fatah and Hamas are all outstanding.”

Rezqa added that, “I also do not believe that President Mahmoud Abbas will be able to go ahead with his reconciliation plans with Hamas. He is too weak to defy Israel.”

Gaza-based political analyst Mustafa Alsawaf told The Media Line that the situation is quite dangerous, yet Israeli actions for the time being will not undermine Hamas.

“What the Israelis are doing is a humiliation of the Palestinian Authority and comes in response to the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace process — particularly the PA's refusal to comply with Israel's demands. The Israeli pretext to carry out attacks against the West Bank, is baseless. If I were in Israel's shoes, I would accuse Hamas of course, for Hamas is the largest and most capable Palestinian group for any abduction,” argued Alsawaf.

Alsawaf believes that the current spate of arrests of Hamas members, including leaders and members of the Palestine Legislative Council, is aimed at undermining the upcoming elections in light of recent Hamas-Fatah reconciliation deal.  He told The Media Line that, “Israel is convinced that the current attacks against Hamas will undermine Hamas's political infrastructure and therefore, elections will not be held.”

While there are those who subscribe to the theory that Israel itself could be fabricating the disappearance of the three missing teens as a pre-determined justification for carrying out weaken Hamas, Alsawaf said he does “not think that the Fatah-Hamas reconciliation has anything to do with the abduction.

“You know that there are more than 5,000 Palestinian detainees inside Israeli prisons, and Abbas has been unable to help release them. Therefore, Hamas could have been behind the disappearance of the three settlers. The unity deal between Hamas and Abbas did not refer to halt of Palestinian resistance actions and you know that Hamas had previously succeeded in a swap deal for Palestinian detainees,” he suggested.

Alsawaf also characterized Abbas's stance regarding security coordination with Israel as “shameful.” He said, “Abbas’s latest remarks do not necessarily represent Fatah or the entire Palestinian people. The one who considers the security coordination [with Israel] as [being] sacred, could possibly have agreed with Israel about eliminating Hamas.” He said that, “Hamas is a joint enemy for both Abbas and Israel.”

Another Gaza-bases political analyst and expert in Israeli affairs, Najy Albatta, told The Media Line that what is going on is “pre-planned," the aim of these attacks being to hinder establishment of a Palestinian statehood.

“The Israeli response to the disappearance of three settlers is unjustified and disproportionate. I just hope that the international community would dispatch observers to the region, to watch Israeli actions closely," Albatta said.

Reacting to President Abbas’s characterization of Palestinian-Israeli security cooperation as ‘sacred,’ Albatta rejected Abbas’s comments as being “totally unjustified,” arguing that, "The Palestinian people's resistance against the Israeli occupation is a given legitimate right."

Asked whether the current Israeli crackdown will significantly harm Hamas, Albatta said, “I do not think that Hamas will be undermined and I believe that Israel should start dealing with the Palestinian people properly. I would like to say that Palestinians will never stop attempting to abduct soldiers until the Palestinian detainees are freed. [Only] if Israel releases Palestinian detainees, then Palestinians will not resort to any abduction attempts.”

Albatta added that previous Israeli operations have failed and this time, too, “Hamas will come out victorious.”

The newly-formed Palestinian interim unity government in Ramallah has condemned the Israeli attacks and called on the international community, including the United Nations Security Council, to intervene and prevent further Israeli military actions in the region.