As the Clock Ticks on a Possible Deal Between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Forces Enter Rafah After Months of Threats

Seven months to the day the war began, Israel is far from attaining its military goals, although developments in recent days, both regarding ongoing negotiations and military action in Rafah, could easily change the course of the war

Israeli military forces took control of the Rafah crossing early Tuesday, as negotiations on a hostage release deal that would lead to a truce between Hamas and Israel hang in the balance.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) described the operation as a “precise counterterrorism operation… to eliminate Hamas terrorists and dismantle Hamas terrorist infrastructure within specific areas of eastern Rafah.” The army downplayed speculation that Israel would operate further and enter the city of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have currently taken refuge because of the seven-month-long war between the sides. 

Israel began its offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the terror group launched a surprise attack on Oct. 7 last year that killed approximately 1,200 Israelis in a single day, wounded thousands of others, and kidnapped more than 250 Israelis and foreign nationals. 

Hours before the Rafah operation, the military called on the area’s residents to evacuate to other areas in Gaza.

Videos on social media showed Israeli tanks and other vehicles driving in Rafah, raising Israeli flags in different locations.

For months, Israel has been threatening to operate in the southernmost city of Gaza and has been under heavy international pressure to cancel its plans. Israel has singled out Rafah as the hub of Hamas’ terrorist activities and believes that members of Hamas’ senior leadership, including its chief commander, Yahya Sinwar, are hiding in tunnels in the Rafah area, surrounded by Israeli hostages serving as human shields. 

After the war began, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the goal was to strip Hamas of its military capabilities and release the hostages that were taken on Oct. 7. Over 250 people, the majority of whom are Israeli civilians, were kidnapped during the day’s attack. So far, 123 have been released, a few as a result of a military operation, and the majority as part of a temporary truce with Hamas in the first weeks of the war. According to Israeli intelligence, at least 30 of those still being held are believed to be dead.

Seven months to the day the war began, Israel is far from attaining those goals. However, developments in recent days regarding ongoing negotiations and military action in Rafah could easily change the course of the war.

“From day one, the Israeli leadership should have spoken in more realistic terms and less in illusions and slogans that created a cascade of expectations,” Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told The Media Line. “The goals set were not so realistic to fulfill.”

It is unclear whether the Israeli build-up ahead of the operation, one that has lasted for many weeks, will result in a military success or a bitter disappointment.

Netanyahu wants Rafah to be the finale, to say that he was a success and has managed to damage the capabilities of Hamas, and en route, to find the Israeli prisoners.

“Netanyahu wants Rafah to be the finale, to say that he was a success and has managed to damage the capabilities of Hamas, and en route, to find the Israeli prisoners,” said Dr. Sabri Saidam, Deputy Secretary General of the Ramallah-based Fatah Central Committee. “This is antagonizing the world. Hamas has accepted the latest cease-fire deal, but Netanyahu has decided to wage this war and wants to exert pressure on Hamas by reaching some territorial gains before sending his negotiating team to Cairo,” he added.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office released a statement on Tuesday, saying that “despite Hamas’ offer being far from Israel’s necessary demands, Israel will send a team of negotiators in order to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions that are acceptable to Israel.”

Netanyahu has political partners from the extreme right whom he needs to appease. They have been pushing for an operation in Rafah since the beginning of the war. 

According to one of them, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist politician, “Sending a delegation to Cairo is a mistake and falling into the manipulative trap set for us by Hamas together with Qatar and Egypt. This is the time to exert more pressure on Sinwar and Hamas until they are destroyed. We must only talk with firepower…not give in to international pressure, and we must not stop until victory and the submission of the enemy,” he posted on his X account on Tuesday.

Netanyahu has promised the Israeli public “absolute victory” against Hamas, a promise he has tied to an operation in Rafah. While the operation appears limited, for now, it still bears significance.

“Israel has made this ‘the mother of all battles,’ but Netanyahu and the Israeli military have appeared to be very hesitant before operating in Rafah,” Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist from Gaza City who is currently in Egypt, told The Media Line. 

The UN estimates approximately 1.7 million Palestinians have been displaced since the beginning of the war, many of whom have fled from northern Gaza, which Israel first targeted, and settled in the Rafah area. Abusada believes that Israel could have easily allowed many of them to return to the north despite the massive destruction there and that the army could have acted much earlier in Rafah.

Netanyahu may want to use the north of Gaza as a bargaining chip in order to create a large buffer zone between Israel and the Gaza Strip.

“We have seen a lot of Israeli talk and little action on Rafah,” Abusada added. “Netanyahu may want to use the north of Gaza as a bargaining chip in order to create a large buffer zone between Israel and the Gaza Strip.”

Rafah also serves as Gaza’s border with Egypt. Israel is looking to assert control over a narrow strip of land called the Philadelphi Corridor, which is approximately 13 kilometers (8 miles) long and located along that border. 

The narrow corridor has served as the gateway of Hamas’ efforts to gain strength since it violently took over Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007. Israel, therefore, views the area as critical to its progress in toppling Hamas. 

But over half a year into Israel’s offensive against Hamas, the organization still rules Gaza and does not appear to be near defeat, with Sinwar as defiant as ever.

“Hamas is fighting a guerilla war that it has been preparing for years,” said Abusada. “It is not easy for Israel to defeat a non-state actor. Assuming most of Hamas’ people are still alive, Hamas will remain in power.”

According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, almost 35,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel since the beginning of the war. While Israel maintains many of the dead are Hamas members, the organization has not released any official numbers. 

Much of the humanitarian aid that enters Gaza, even before the war but especially since the fighting began, enters from Egypt through the Rafah crossing. 

Although it doesn’t look like Israel is planning to conquer Rafah, enter the tunnels, or the military headquarters of Hamas, taking over the crossing is very important.

“This [the IDF Rafah operation] is not just a symbolic event,” said Milstein. “Although it doesn’t look like Israel is planning to conquer Rafah, enter the tunnels, or the military headquarters of Hamas, taking over the crossing is very important. Yet, this will likely not be a game-changer for Hamas and will certainly not topple it.”

International pressure, led by the US, to cancel or minimize an operation in Rafah is likely what led Israel to significantly delay and downsize its action there. According to a White House statement, US President Joe Biden spoke with Netanyahu on Monday and “reiterated his clear position on Rafah.” 

The US has said Israel needs to provide a concrete plan for the relocation of the displaced people currently in Rafah before operating there. In addition, the Biden Administration has voiced concern that Israeli military action in the area will put a dent in the efforts to guarantee a steady flow of humanitarian aid. 

Israel also likely paused its operation due to negotiations on a hostage release deal that have been underway for weeks. In recent days, reports on the success or failure of the talks have changed on an hourly basis. Meanwhile, the IDF continues to progress in Rafah, in a move that may risk the future of the negotiations or may push Hamas to accept a deal that is more favorable to Israel than what is currently on the table. 

Hamas said it agreed to a cease-fire just hours before Israel entered the outskirts of Rafah.

“This makes Hamas look bad,” said Abusada, who believes the organization will be forced to fight back. “This is the slippery road we have been on since October.”

On Tuesday afternoon, the IDF reported mortar shells and rockets were fired into Israel from Rafah. There were no reported casualties.