Planned downsizing of Baghdad embassy marks latest setback to American hopes
The decision by the U.S. State Department to downsize its massive diplomatic and aid operation in Iraq signals a rapid parting of the ways between the two countries as Baghdad resists American aspirations for close diplomatic and business ties.
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington is planning to reduce by as much as half the size and scope of the embassy, which is responsible for 16,000 employees and subcontractors and a budget slated to reach $6 billion in 2012. Officials attributed the decision to the inability of Americans to work freely and safely in the country or move equipment in and out of the country.
“There are a lot of people in the U.S. government – a lot of Americans – who are invested in the Iraq War, who want to believe that the Iraqis want us there. All evidence points to the opposite,” Marc Lynch, an expert on Middle East politics at George Washington University, told The Media Line. “You’re seeing what you should expect to see. It was unrealistic to expect to have this massive U.S. presence there.”
But that was not how it was supposed to be, at least in the eyes of many Americans. When U.S.-led troops overthrew President Saddam Hussein in 2003 followed by a lengthy American military presence in the country, both the war’s supporters and its critics expected America to be the dominant factor in the country for years to come. Baghdad would become an ally of Washington in the Middle East and U.S. companies would help rebuild the country’s decimated petroleum industry and other infrastructure.
In fact, none of that happened. A plan to maintain a U.S. military presence in Iraq after the official withdrawal was completed in December collapsed last autumn after Iraqi officials refused to grant American troops immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts.
Nevertheless, officials in Washington had hoped to ensure a significant U.S. presence in the country after the pullout through wide-ranging civilian aid programs. Instead, Americans encountered growing obstacles from Baghdad. Convoys of food being brought in from Kuwait have been routinely delayed at the border while applications for visas and work permits are ensnarled in bureaucracy.
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In addition, the security situation on the ground in Iraq makes it almost impossible for Americans to meet with local officials or supervise training and other programs.
Responding to the Times article, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland denied the U.S. would slash the number of personnel by half, but admitted that a reduction is in the works. “What we are doing … is looking at how we can ‘right-size’ our embassy in Iraq,” she told reporters in Washington. “What ultimate numbers will result from this in reductions in contractors, we don’t know yet.”
In the meantime, Iraq has also proven less hospitable to U.S. business than many had hoped. A United States Business Council in Iraq began operations last July and in November the U.S. sponsored its first national pavilion since 1988 at the Baghdad International Trade Fair. Some 85 companies and universities from the U.S. were in attendance.
And, when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki visited Washington last December, he told an audience of business and government leaders he wants deeper economic ties. “There are a lot of American corporations in Iraq. However, we are not satisfied with the number of American corporations in Iraq,” he said.
In fact, U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iraq jumped to $8 billion in the first 11 months of 2011from just under $2 billion in 2010, according to figures from the U.S. Business Council in Iraq. But total FDI in Iraq nearly doubled in the period to $70 billion and the U.S. accounted for less than 12% of that. After dropping in 2009 and 2010, U.S. exports to Iraq rebounded last year to about $2.3 billion, but its trade deficit with Iraq widened to $13.3 billion.
No U.S. airlines fly to Iraq and there are no direct flights between New York and Baghdad. The State Department discourages Americans from travelling to the country except for essential business. There are no U.S. business people permanently stationed in Iraq and the ones that do travel to the country on a regular basis tend to visit the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, where security is better.
“What’s happening here in terms of lagging U.S. investment is the perception of Iraq as an unstable country,” T. Keyzom Ngodup, executive director at Ideas sYnergy, which helps young Iraqis turn their business ideas into start-up enterprises told The Media Line. “This perception is much more heightened in the U.S. The media focuses on the Al-Qa’ida relationship, the terrorism threat.”
She said that even when the U.S. Embassy has been so heavily staffed, it has not been as effective as its counterparts from Europe, which make more of an effort to reach out to Iraqis as a way of fostering business and other ties through informal embassy events.
“The French Consulate or the German Consulate, the way in which they approach Iraqis is through cultural ties. One doesn’t see that with the Americans. You don’t see them outside the compound walls,” she said.
Lynch of George Washington University said the Al-Maliki government may be moving closer to Iran, America’s chief rival for influence in the Middle East, but that in the long run it will probably align itself with the Western-friendly Gulf monarchies.
“Right now the legacy of the war and occupation has pushed Iraq toward Iran and away from the Gulf, but eventually Iraq will feel threatened by Iran and will patch up relations with the Gulf countries — not because anything America does but because of their own national interests,” he said “They’re not going to be make their polices based on gratitude to the U.S. or become vassals of Iran.”