It has been almost two weeks since the assassinations of two terrorist leaders in the Middle East prompted threats of revenge against Israel. These threats have yet to materialize, as Israelis hold their breath for such an attack and its possible consequences, and the region braces itself for what could possibly be a wider conflict.
Since the beginning, Iran has made it clear it is interested in achieving hegemony and establishing a regional Shiite caliphate. Israel is in the way of this goal, and this is the basis of all Iranian behavior.
“Since the beginning, Iran has made it clear it is interested in achieving hegemony and establishing a regional Shiite caliphate,” retired Cmdr. Dr. Eyal Pinko, a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and an expert on Iran, told The Media Line. “Israel is in the way of this goal, and this is the basis of all Iranian behavior.”
Israel took responsibility for the targeted killing of Fuad Shukur of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah in Beirut. It did not acknowledge playing a role in the assassination of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran just a few hours later. However, it is widely believed to be behind the operation. Since then, Iran, Hezbollah, and other Iranian proxies have vowed to avenge the killings. Israeli officials have said the country is prepared for all scenarios. Israel and Iran have been archrivals for decades, ever since the 1979 Iranian revolution, which put in place a radical Islamic regime that severed ties with Israel.
Remarks in recent days by Iranian leaders since the assassination have sent mixed signals.
On Friday, Iranian news agencies quoted Ali Fadavi, a deputy commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), saying, “The supreme leader’s orders regarding the harsh punishment of Israel and revenge for the blood of martyr Ismail Haniyeh are clear and explicit … and they will be implemented in the best possible way.”
Iran’s threats against Israel come at a critical time in the war between Israel and Hamas and attempts by mediators to broker a cease-fire deal between the sides.
Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen joined Hamas in an attack on Israel immediately after the war broke out on October 7th. Iran’s proxies and Iran itself have said repeatedly that they would stop attacking Israel if a cease-fire with Hamas is reached.
Israel’s main ally, the US, has mobilized forces in the region in recent days in an effort to deter Iran. Other allies, such as Britain and France, are also believed to have readjusted their positions in the Middle East. They and other countries in the region are expected to help Israel thwart any Iranian attack.
US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators have been working on closing the gaps between Israel and Hamas in an attempt to bring the sides to a summit later this week that would seal the deal and see the conclusion of the fighting and the release of at least some of the 115 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas.
Iranian officials were also quoted as saying their retaliation against Israel would not be harmful to the cease-fire efforts, causing speculation in Israel about the timing and the scope of the attack.
For now, the Israeli Home Front Command has not changed its directives and told Israelis they can continue going about their routines.
Iran’s considerations on whether to attack Israel depend on several factors aligning together.
Iran is a strategic actor playing for the long run that will not make suicidal moves. Its economic situation is poor, still recovering from American sanctions and the COVID pandemic. It also understands it now has a window of opportunity before elections in the US.
“Iran is a strategic actor playing for the long run that will not make suicidal moves,” said Pinko. “Its economic situation is poor, still recovering from American sanctions and the COVID pandemic. It also understands it now has a window of opportunity before elections in the US.”
According to Pinko, the Iranians fear former US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and prefer to see the Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris at the helm. This may steer them away from the currently escalating situation, as they do not want to negatively impact events.
“Trump in the White House means more support for Israel,” he explained. “Their understanding is that the US is the economic gate to the world, and other countries will follow its decisions. Trump will only make things hard for them. Harris, who is pro-Palestinian, will loosen the noose and give them air.”
During US President Joe Biden’s now-concluding tenure, there was more leniency towards the Islamic Republic. In one example from earlier this year, the Biden Administration renewed a sanctions waiver for Iran, allowing it to access 10 billion US dollars in previously escrowed funds.
Dr. Menahem Merhavy is an expert on Iran and a research fellow at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He believes Iran is carefully monitoring the US domestic politics but does not see a major advantage with either presidential candidate or party.
Support for Israel is still bi-partisan at the moment. Despite different tones, even those who are critical of Israel have stood by it in times of need. Iran does not want to enter another decade of sanctions.
“Support for Israel is still bi-partisan at the moment. Despite different tones, even those who are critical of Israel have stood by it in times of need,” he told The Media Line. “Iran does not want to enter another decade of sanctions.”
In an effort to deter Iran but also help Israel in case of an attack, the US is leading an international coalition that will help Israel mainly with aerial defense and intelligence to thwart a possible offensive from Tehran. A similar coalition helped Israel last spring when Iran launched over 300 missiles and UAVs towards Israel. The Iranian onslaught was in response to Israel’s killing of several officers from the IRGC at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, an attack Tehran considered a breach of its sovereignty.
As the fighting in Gaza continues, the efforts to end the fighting are also continuing.
Israeli leaders and defense establishment often refer to Iran and its web of proxies as an Octopus with many tentacles trying to strike at Israel. The war Hamas launched in Gaza immediately saw Hezbollah and other proxies join the effort against Israel, with the Palestinian cause supposedly joining them all.
“Hamas is an Iranian proxy, one of Iran’s octopus tentacles,” Pinko explained. “Iran aims to conduct non-contact warfare through those proxies.”
The war in Gaza enabled Iran to use all those proxies at the same time and interchangeably, significantly challenging Israel. In the end, however, Iran has its own interests.
The Iranians are playing a double game; they like the unified fronts when it’s to their advantage, but they will not allow it to bind them or drag them into something. Their commitment to the Palestinian issue is very partial, and it will not sacrifice itself or its strategic interests for that cause.
“The Iranians are playing a double game; they like the unified fronts when it’s to their advantage, but they will not allow it to bind them or drag them into something,” said Merhavy. “Their commitment to the Palestinian issue is very partial, and it will not sacrifice itself or its strategic interests for that cause.”
Another piece of the puzzle is the recent swearing-in of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. Considered a more moderate figure, his apparent desire to appease the West or, at the very least, not irritate it might contribute to Iranian hesitation.
“Pezeshkian is looking to decrease tensions with the West,” said Merhavy. “They are also listening carefully to American warnings and realizing that their air defense systems may not be able to cope with an Israeli or American response to their attack.”
A cautious actor, Iran is now weighing its options and will give the Palestinian matter the weight it believes it merits. According to Merhavy, Tehran would consider postponing an attack on Israel if a cease-fire agreement between Hamas and Israel was imminent.
Iran has a lot of patience
“Iran has a lot of patience,” he added.
Part of that patience is already paying off. For almost two weeks since the back-to-back assassinations, Israelis have been on edge. Despite insistence from the Home Front Command that there is no immediate threat from Iran, many have changed their plans and opt to stay home or avoid areas that they believe the Islamic Republic would target. In addition, many airlines have indefinitely canceled their flights to and from Israel, causing cancellations of summer vacation plans, disruption, and a financial toll on many.
“Iran is using psychological warfare as another part of its warfare,” said Pinko. “This has a devastating impact on the economy and is already a significant Iranian achievement.”