In a further deterioration in the relations between the US administration and the Israeli government, US President Joe Biden said Thursday that if Israeli forces enter the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, the US would not supply offensive weapons that could be used in such an operation. The American leader vowed to continue supplying Israel with defensive weapons and systems the country needs.
Several media reports have already indicated that the US has slowed down its weapons shipments to Israel in recent weeks. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that one such shipment had already been delayed.
Earlier this week, the Israeli military entered the outskirts of Rafah, taking over a critical crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt as part of its seven-month-long war against Hamas. The operation came after months of Israeli threats to operate in the area, threats that prompted American and international warnings. The US and other countries voiced their concern that an Israeli military offensive in Rafah would result in a humanitarian catastrophe given that Rafah is overcrowded with hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians who have fled from other war-torn areas of Gaza.
The White House asked Israel to supply detailed plans for the evacuation of the population. The plans devised by the Israeli military were reportedly not satisfactory enough.
After Israel decided to make its move and begin the military offensive in the Rafah area, the risk it took was expressed in Biden’s latest threat. Israel is heavily reliant on American aid, both in funds and weapons systems. The Jewish state has depended on this support for decades, and it became even more crucial after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, which forced Israel to announce an all-out war against the Gaza-based terrorist organization.
According to the Associated Press, the delayed shipment was to consist of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs. The delay could possibly be attributed to the upcoming expected publication of a US Department of Defense report known as the National Security Memorandum 20 (NSM20). This report details how US military aid is being used in conflicts, whether violence against civilians in such conflicts is being avoided, and whether international humanitarian law is being adhered to. The report’s deadline has passed, perhaps signaling that the US is still waiting for answers on Israel regarding the sticking points that are currently causing tension between Washington and Jerusalem. If the report is unfavorable to Israel, it will pose further limitations on the Biden Administration to supply weapons to the Jewish state.
Israel will have to make do without certain weapons and systems, at least temporarily.
This is not a situation that can last for long, especially if Israel will be faced with another front on its northern border.
“This is not a situation that can last for long, especially if Israel will be faced with another front on its northern border,” said Dr. Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former deputy national security adviser. “However, I believe this issue will be solved before that.”
According to Lerman, Israel had a wide range of abilities that enables it to maintain its operations without American weapons.
Israel has very advanced munition-guided precision abilities of its own, but there is a clear preference to rely on American support.
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“The effect of such a move will not be immediate,” Lerman told The Media Line. “Israel has very advanced munition-guided precision abilities of its own, but there is a clear preference to rely on American support.”
According to data from USAID, Israel is the largest recipient of US military aid, receiving billions of US dollars every year. For Israel, every American dollar received is less it spends from its own budget on its defense and offense.
“In the short term, Israel is greatly dependent on the US because throughout the years it transferred a lot of its defense expenditure there, preferring that to local manufacturing,” said Dr. Yagil Henkin, a lecturer on military thought, history, and strategy at the Shalem College. “The US manufactures many of the systems Israel relies on, including armored vehicle parts and interceptors for aid defense systems. Israel cannot just wake up one morning and decide it is replacing all of this,” he told The Media Line.
During an interview with CNN, Biden’s comments elicited sharp criticism within the US and raised concern in Israel. His promise to continue to supply Israel with defense abilities did not help calm the debate surrounding his threat.
“We’re not walking away from Israel’s security. We’re walking away from Israel’s ability to wage war in those areas,” Biden said.
Israel’s war on Hamas came after the group stormed Israel’s border, killing approximately 1,200 Israelis, wounding thousands more, and kidnapping over 250 people, half of them still in captivity. Just hours after the attack, Biden and his administration pledged their support for Israel and fast-tracked munitions shipments to the Jewish state. The US also mobilized aircraft carriers to the region to deter Israel’s other enemies from joining the war.
The war on Hamas has dealt a huge blow to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, almost 35,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel since the beginning of the war, and over 75,000 have been injured. The UN estimates that 1.7 million Palestinians have been displaced, with tens of thousands of homes destroyed to rubble. Throughout the seven-month-long war, the US has voiced its concern that Israel has not taken enough precautions to minimize the harm to Palestinian civilians. Israel claims it has taken countless measures to keep civilians out of harm’s way. It also claims that at least half of the dead are Hamas terrorists, a figure that has not been confirmed nor denied by the terrorist organization.
The Biden Administration has been facing mounting pressure from within the Democratic party and from Arab Americans to stop support for Israel.
US Senator Bernie Sanders was quick to praise the “first step” taken by the US president.
“(He) is right to halt bomb deliveries to this extreme Israeli government,” Sanders posted on his X account. “The US must now use ALL its leverage to demand a ceasefire, stop attacks on Rafah, and secure delivery of massive humanitarian aid throughout Gaza.”
The collision between the US and Israel was almost inevitable, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government insisted on continuing its war against Hamas at the cost of alienating the Biden Administration. In the end, this could potentially lead to a change in how Israel manages its defense, shifting the weight of its dependence on the US.
“Taking into account an interim period, Israel could transfer into a phase of higher self-reliance, although it prefers not to,” said Lerman, who cites both the financial and symbolic aspect of Israeli reliance on the US, which both have a deterrent effect on its enemies.
In the past, Israel has been able to find other solutions when such differences emerged. In 2014, amidst another war between Hamas and Israel, the latter circumvented the Barack Obama White House and purchased artillery directly from the US Pentagon, taking advantage of a loophole that existed in defense agreements between the US and Israel. At that time, former President Obama was also concerned Israel was using excessive force against Palestinians.
“Israel has the technological ability to overcome this problem in the long run,” said Lerman. “A country that can intercept missiles outside of the atmosphere with its own technology is most certainly capable of manufacturing more simple systems; we are not talking about cutting-edge technologies that have been invented in the last couple of years.”
Yet, in a globalized world and economy, very few countries are completely self-reliant. In an opposite example, the wings of the much-coveted F35 fighter jet, which is manufactured by US military giant Lockheed Martin, are manufactured by Israeli Aerospace Industries. According to the Israeli Air Force website, other unnamed components of the stealth fighter jet are also made in Israel.
Henkin describes the discourse on US defense aid to Israel as simplistic.
This is not a zero-sum game. It’s not all or nothing. There doesn’t have to be complete dependence of Israel on the US. There are good reasons for Israel to receive American aid, but it also comes with a price.
“This is not a zero-sum game. It’s not all or nothing,” he told The Media Line. “There doesn’t have to be complete dependence of Israel on the US. There are good reasons for Israel to receive American aid, but it also comes with a price.”
“In the long run, Israel should try and diversify its sources,” Henkin added, pointing to India as a possible alternative. “If Israel wants less of a hold on her, it doesn’t need to completely give up on the US, but it needs the option of flexibility.”