US Beefs Up Presence in Middle East To Protect Its Interests, Avoid Wider Conflict
America deploys nuclear-capable submarine amid rising tensions
The announcement by the American military’s central command on Monday that it had mobilized a submarine with nuclear capability to the Middle East was another sign that tensions in the region are the highest they have been in decades. The move was a signal by the US that it is strongly invested in preventing a further escalation.
Various media outlets reported the visit of CIA Director William Burns to Israel. Burns met with senior officials, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other dignitaries, including his counterparts in Israel’s intelligence agencies.
“There is an American interest to convey a very clear message that they are prepared for any scenario,” said Eldad Shavit, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former senior intelligence officer. “Their presence in the region is unprecedented and is expressed both in statements by senior officials and in action and mobilization of forces. The main aim is deterrence.”
It is unclear whether the submarine is carrying nuclear or ballistic missiles. What is clear is that the stakes are high, perhaps higher than ever before.
As Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip begin a second month of fighting, other countries and actors in the Middle East are holding their breath. The immediate American reaction to Hamas’ surprise offensive against Israel at the beginning of October was a full show of support and promise of continuous military aid. Until now, the US has provided Israel with a steady supply of ammunition, replenishing its supply of air-defense rockets and mobilizing forces and aircraft in the region close to Israel. The submarine joined two carrier strike groups that were mobilized at the beginning of the conflict. Last week, the US House of Representatives approved a $14 billion military aid package to Israel in addition to the annual aid supplied by the Americans.
Alongside beefing up American presence in the region, the aim is to deter Iran and its proxies from entering the conflict and widening it.
US President Joe Biden has warned several times against this in various public appearances.
The main concern shared by Israel and the US is a possible attack by the Lebanon-based armed group Hizbullah on Israel’s northern border. Since the beginning of the war with Hamas, Hizbullah has been behind dozens of incidents of cross-border rocket and mortar fire into Israel. The Israeli military has retaliated against the organization. So far, the conflict has been contained but threatens to escalate.
The violence between the sides is the worst along the border since Israel and Hizbullah fought a war in 2006. Hizbullah is supported and funded by Iran. The cross-border incidents have already cost the lives of Hizbullah terrorists and Israelis, most of them soldiers.
In a speech given last week by Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, he made his intentions clear. He was not going to enter an all-out war with Israel. But the Middle East is a highly dynamic region, Nasrallah himself acknowledging that, saying “all options are open” and that “the situation could escalate militarily at any time.”
This holiday season, give to:
Truth and understanding
The Media Line's intrepid correspondents are in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan providing first-person reporting.
They all said they cover it.
We see it.
We report with just one agenda: the truth.
“For now, the Americans see the conflict between Israel and Hizbullah as contained,” Shavit told The Media Line.
Hizbullah has positioned itself as a guardian of the Palestinian cause. In solidarity with Hamas, it began shooting at Israel in the immediate aftermath of the developments in Gaza. For now, both Israel and Hizbullah have kept the level of violent exchanges one that both sides can contain. This could easily escalate.
The chief concern in such a scenario is an even wider conflict that could include a direct confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States. For Israel, a wider confrontation with Hizbullah would mean much of the country would be the target of massive rocket fire. Hizbullah is believed to possess a huge arsenal of missiles, many of them with precision-guided technology. Also, the organization reportedly has over 100 offensive drones. Hizbullah’s members have gained significant combat experience, as it sent many of its soldiers to help stabilize the Assad regime in Syria during its civil war.
For now, the American presence appears to deter Hizbullah. But if not, this could be what will lead to further US involvement in the region. Whether Hizbullah decides to attack Israel depends greatly on the result of Israel’s offensive against Hamas. The closer Israel is to its goal of obliterating the Gaza-based terrorist organization that was behind the attack against Israel, the closer Nasrallah will be to entering the cycle of violence, in order to showcase his commitment to Israel’s destruction and to the ‘axis of resistance’ both he and Hamas share.
In such a case, the US will likely help Israel in intercepting rockets and perhaps by striking military targets in Lebanon. They didn’t mobilize all this power to the region to just stand on the sidelines.
“In such a case, the US will likely help Israel in intercepting rockets and perhaps by striking military targets in Lebanon,” said Shavit. “They didn’t mobilize all this power to the region to just stand on the sidelines.”
Israel is highly dependent on the US for its aerial defense array. Just hours after the surprise Hamas offensive on Israel began, Biden guaranteed that Israel would have a steady supply of interceptors for its Iron Dome system. The Hizbullah missile arsenal will likely challenge Israel and need a wider response. Hizbullah has stronger firepower, with bigger and longer-range missiles that require a much more robust defense.
“There is no doubt that Israel’s capabilities are thinly spread,” said Professor Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
While US support is crucial for Israel, it is very unlikely that the US will have its ground forces involved in any armed conflict.
“The willingness to do so is very limited,” Inbar told The Media Line. “The US will use its firepower; it already has.”
Since the beginning of the war, there have also been incidents involving American forces in the region. During October, a US Navy warship shot down missiles that appeared to be aimed at Israel, and American bases in Iraq and Syria were targeted repeatedly by drone attacks and other means.
“At this point, it looks like the US wants to contain these incidents and avoid a wider conflict,” said Shavit. “If there will be significant American casualties in Syria or Iraq, this will likely lead to a much more powerful American response.”
Iranian-backed militias in the region are used by Iran as their foot soldiers in regional conflicts. American support for Israel has now given them another reason to target US presence in the area. It is difficult to foresee what could drag the US further into a Middle Eastern entanglement.
In 2013, former US President Barack Obama said the use of chemical weapons in Syria would be a “red line” the US would not allow crossing. As evidence emerged of the use of sarin gas, the anticipation for American intervention was replaced with disappointment.
“The current red line is ambiguous, perhaps purposely so,” said Inbar. “The US wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran; this might be a reason for further entering the conflict if they see direct Iranian involvement in attacks against US targets.”
The American and Israeli militaries have been cooperating on a wide range of issues for many years, including major joint drills. Scenarios that may play out soon have likely been trained for by both armies. A little over two years ago, Israel was moved to be under the responsibility of US Central Command, a move that was intended to further improve coordination between the two militaries and enable direct communication between Israeli troops with their American counterparts that are stationed all over the region.
As the war progresses, this cooperation will be tested—perhaps to the limit.
