The Rise of the Right in Europe Will Be Good for Israel but Dangerous for Jews
Maariv, Israel, June 6
Despite common perception, not all international developments are negative. Political shifts in Europe are unmasking progressive facades, potentially leading to favorable outcomes for Israel. Much has been said about global events concerning Israel during times of conflict, often culminating in discussions about which countries harbor the most anti-Semitism, the presence of such sentiments within current leadership, and the implications for Israel’s future. While discourse on this topic seems exhaustive, there are also developments that may be beneficial for Israel. In addition to the anticipated US elections, 2024 is set to be a pivotal election year globally, possibly signaling a positive shift in international policies toward Israel. One significant event is the upcoming European Parliament elections. For most Israelis, this institution holds little relevance, yet it is the second-largest representative body worldwide, following India’s parliament. Comprising 720 members elected proportionally based on each country’s population, the European Parliament will influence European policy for the next five years. The influx of immigrants in Europe, primarily from the Middle East and Africa, has led to increased violence and crime in major European cities, spurring a shift toward the political right. Violent protests against Israel, predominantly involving Muslim immigrants, have intensified in recent months, inciting public outrage across Europe. In response, law enforcement in various countries has started to clamp down on these demonstrations, with Sweden as a notable example. Germany has also introduced measures against statements denying Israel’s existence or displaying anti-Semitism. These actions are expected to translate into a more conservative voting pattern in the European Parliament elections, which could signal a shift in European policy toward Israel. It is likely that the current EU foreign minister, the French Josep Borrell—known for his adversarial stance toward Israel—will be replaced. In the UK, forthcoming elections indicate the Labour Party might finally end its long stint out of power by defeating the Conservatives. Yet, this week saw far-right candidate Nigel Farage announcing his run for the British Parliament, with early polls suggesting his right-wing faction could secure a significant position, possibly overtaking the Conservatives. This development implies that right-wing Brexit supporters will become influential in British policymaking concerning Israel. South Africa also witnessed political changes. Although the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), retained power, it suffered a significant loss, necessitating coalition partnerships and consideration of other parties’ views—an area where the ANC has historically faltered. This shift might temper South Africa’s extreme positions and actions against Israel, though the full impact remains to be seen. If these developments materialize, Israel will need to engage in a vigorous diplomatic campaign with newly elected officials worldwide to shape their perspectives on the ongoing conflict and future strategies. However, caution is warranted: while the rise of right-wing factions in Europe may benefit Israel in the short term regarding the conflict, it could jeopardize the safety of substantial Jewish communities in these countries. Hence, Israel must also address this potential risk. —Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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