Assad’s Fall Reshapes Middle East Dynamics; Israel Watches Closely
Israel eyes regional shifts as Syria fragments, weakening Iran’s influence but raising concerns over extremist factions and Turkey’s presence near its borders
The rapid and dramatic changes in the Middle East, now in the form of the fall of the Syrian government led by President Bashar Assad, have Israel eyeing developments along its border with the country. It is difficult to downplay the effect of Assad’s departure and the de-facto collapse of the so-called Iranian “ring of fire” aimed at encircling Israel with hostile entities on all of its borders.
On Sunday, as it became evident that the Assad regime has indeed collapsed, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it was deploying forces in the buffer zone between the two countries, emphasizing in a statement it was “not interfering with the internal events in Syria.” The military also designated several areas along the border as closed military zones, restricting civilian access.
The Israeli war cabinet met on Saturday night for the second time in several days, reportedly to discuss events in Syria and their possible implications for the Jewish state.
Even though Assad was a tough enemy, the border with Israel was quiet even at the height of the civil war in Syria. He enhanced the connection between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but there was an address Israel could turn to if messages needed to be conveyed.
“Even though Assad was a tough enemy, the border with Israel was quiet even at the height of the civil war in Syria,” Dr. Udi Balanga, an expert on Syria from the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at Bar-Ilan University, told The Media Line. “He enhanced the connection between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but there was an address Israel could turn to if messages needed to be conveyed.”
Scenes of Syrian soldiers abandoning their posts and rebel forces making swift progress towards Damascus raised concern in Israel that instability on its border and the presence of unconventional weapons in Syria could pose a risk for the country. Syria is now fragmented between several groups, most of them extreme Islamist, with the potential of posing a new array of threats to Israel.
Israel will need to learn to maneuver between the different elements and arenas within Syria. At the beginning, the different factions may unite, but eventually, we might see Syria separate into different autonomous sections, which will require Israel to tread skillfully.
“Israel will need to learn to maneuver between the different elements and arenas within Syria,” Balanga added. “At the beginning, the different factions may unite, but eventually, we might see Syria separate into different autonomous sections, which will require Israel to tread skillfully.”
For Israel, it is a matter of who is the lesser evil.
While some experts believe the fall of Assad, himself a sworn enemy of Israel, could be beneficial, others are worried that instability in Syria and the presence of unconventional weapons in the country could spell trouble.
Turkey is believed to have played a major role in instigating the coup in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hostile towards Israel, and his backing of the Islamist movement’s new off-shots of Al Qaida in Syria put Israel in a tricky position as it still maintains diplomatic relations with Turkey.
In the past, Erdogan has expressed an intention to confront Israel even militarily. Now that Turkey shares a border with Israel, if the relations don’t improve soon, this is certainly cause for concern.
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“In the past, Erdogan has expressed an intention to confront Israel even militarily,” Dr. Dina Lisnyansky, a lecturer and researcher on the Middle East, Islam and Russia in the Middle East from The Reichman University in Herzliya and Shalem College, told The Media Line. “Now that Turkey shares a border with Israel, if the relations don’t improve soon, this is certainly cause for concern.”
Some of the factions in Syria are considered less hostile to Israel. According to Lisnyansky, secular elements and the Druze of southern Syria have both engaged in dialogue with Israel.
“Israel now needs to take advantage of the geopolitical, cultural, and ideological diversity now in Syria without the presence of a very centralized government in power,” she told The Media Line. “The Iranian grip on Syria has now been significantly weakened, and Qatar is looking to enter the Syrian arena as the main funder of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood. Israel needs to engage the different factions before this happens and try to position itself advantageously.”
For the past two decades, Israel has undertaken a major military effort against what it saw as an increased Iranian threat in Syrian territory. Syria was seen, until very recently, as a central part of Israel’s battle against its arch-rival, Iran. Iran used Syria as a corridor to arm Hezbollah, which, until recently, was considered Israel’s most formidable and immediate threat.
Particularly advantageous to Israel at the moment is the Kurdish hold in north-eastern Syria on the border with Iraq.
The Kurds now hold an extremely strategic position in Dir-a-Zur. Previously under the control of Assad and other forces, Iran was able to transfer an immense amount of weapons and Shiite militia into Syria in order to help Assad at the time.
“The Kurds now hold an extremely strategic position in Dir-a-Zur. Previously under the control of Assad and other forces, Iran was able to transfer an immense amount of weapons and Shiite militia into Syria in order to help Assad at the time,” said Lisnyansky. “This axis is now disconnecting, one link after the other. Assad’s fall undoes the territorial and ideological continuity of this axis.”
Israel has been involved in a far-reaching regional war for fourteen months now. What began with a surprise offensive by the Hamas terrorist organization in southern Israel quickly spread to other arenas, a major one being with Hezbollah in Lebanon. All backed by Iran, the cycle has been gradually broken. A ceasefire with Hezbollah was reached at the end of last month after Israel significantly weakened the terrorist organization, including eliminating its senior leadership.
Assad relied heavily on Hezbollah and Iran in order to maintain power since the Arab Spring erupted in 2011.
Iranian presence in Syria is almost non-existent at the moment. Syria, as the very important link between Hezbollah and Iran, is gone. Iran’s ability to rehabilitate Hezbollah has been critically damaged now. This is a positive development for Israel, but developments within Syria with extremist elements that are not favorable to Israel could play out negatively in time.
“Iranian presence in Syria is almost non-existent at the moment,” said Balanga. “Syria, as the very important link between Hezbollah and Iran, is gone. Iran’s ability to rehabilitate Hezbollah has been critically damaged now. This is a positive development for Israel, but developments within Syria with extremist elements that are not favorable to Israel could play out negatively in time.”
Israeli officials have warned Syria recently of the consequences should it continue to aid Hezbollah’s rearmament. The air force has carried out airstrikes against suspected weapons deliveries to the Lebanese terrorist group.
Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people during the civil war also raised alarm in Israel, who was afraid such unconventional weapons could be directed in its direction at some point. Thousands of airstrikes have been attributed to Israel in Syria throughout the internal strife, most against weapons convoys addressed to Hezbollah but also against sites believed to have contained chemical and biological weapons.
“Israel is doing the maximum to make sure these weapons don’t fall in the wrong hands,” said Lisnyansky.
Israeli media reported Sunday that the IDF attacked targets in Syria, including a chemical weapons factory. The military has not confirmed these reports.
Meanwhile, the region continues to transform rapidly.
For Turkey, which is considered to be behind the anti-Assad forces, Hezbollah’s weakening was a signal that the time was ripe to topple Assad. In a lightning offensive, rebels swept through the country, managing to remove the Syrian president from power. Turkey has now positioned itself as a major power in Syria, right on Israel’s doorstep, signaling perhaps greater ambitions for influence in the Middle East. Now, the region awaits the next developments, happening at breathtaking speed.
For Iran, losing Syria could be one too many losses of late. This could push it further to hasten its nuclear program and rush towards military-grade nuclear capability, which many experts believe is just a decision away.
The Iranian axis of evil has been hit. This feeling could certainly accelerate certain processes.
“The Iranian axis of evil has been hit,” said Balanga. “This feeling could certainly accelerate certain processes.”
Israel has vowed to act against Iran’s nuclear program. With the backing of a new US administration, this could see pre-emptive Israeli action against Iran, something which would have far-reaching implications for the region.
“Iran now understands that all the proxies it has spent years cultivating are now falling apart,” Lisnyansky said. “This means Iran feels attacked, more exposed, less security, and without the ability to fight through its proxies. This leads Iran to one single solution – it will push forward in the fastest way possible to attain a nuclear weapon.”
Rehabilitating Hezbollah through Syria was meant to help Iran deter Israel from acting pre-emptively, as was Iran’s original plan before the outbreak of the war between Hamas and Israel last year.
The end of the half-century rule of the Assad family in Syria signals the end of one drama but the beginning of another, which promises to be no less of a roller-coaster ride for the Middle East. Although now re-aligning, all the dots in the region are connected.
