Will Netanyahu’s Government Survive the Ceasefire Deal?
The PM coalition base depends on extreme-right elements that disagree with the ceasefire, but it's unlikely that they will torpedo the coalition
As of January 2025, Netanyahu’s coalition holds 68 of the 120 seats in the Israeli Parliament after Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, which holds four seats, joined the government’s coalition. Still, even with this enhanced stability, internal disagreements persist, particularly now with the ceasefire agreement, the new draft laws to conscript ultra-Orthodox men, and the control of expenses in Israel’s national budget.
In December 2024, the state budget passed its initial Knesset vote with a narrow 59-57 margin, indicating fractures within the coalition. Notably, the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, opposed the budget, underscoring ongoing tensions among coalition partners. Meanwhile, several opposition parties in Israel have expressed their willingness to support Netanyahu’s government in efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Notably, Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity party, communicated to Netanyahu that his party would provide full backing to any responsible deal to bring the hostages home.
In light of the groundbreaking deal that could see the return of 33 hostages to Israel and a ceasefire in Gaza, Prof. Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the chairman of the Department of Strategy, Diplomacy, and Security at Shalem College, explained to The Media Line that the likelihood of the government falling apart due to dissatisfaction with the deal is slim. “Only one party, Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, has indicated a willingness to leave the coalition. Even Smotrich said that he will vote in favor of the deal and will not leave the government,” he said. “The rest are merely making noise.”
He’s being pragmatic and choosing to lose a little. He’s decided to postpone the option of leaving the government to a later stage.
The expert suggests that many right-wing elements in the coalition are making a larger political calculation. They consider “it’s a situation where he has to choose between losing a little or losing a lot. He’s being pragmatic and choosing to lose a little. He’s decided to postpone the option of leaving the government to a later stage.”
This pragmatism is key to understanding why the government is unlikely to collapse despite internal discord. Even as coalition members express dissatisfaction, the political math doesn’t favor an upheaval. “The numbers simply don’t work to disrupt the government,” Inbar noted.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir both understand that this ceasefire has two phases. The pressure on the government will likely lead to phase two, which means withdrawing all IDF soldiers from Gaza and ending the war. If the war ends, there will be no Jewish settlements or military control in Gaza, which is exactly what they wanted to do.
Dr. Ilana Shpaizman, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, echoed similar sentiments. “Smotrich and Ben-Gvir both understand that this ceasefire has two phases,” she explained. “The pressure on the government will likely lead to phase two, which means withdrawing all IDF soldiers from Gaza and ending the war. If the war ends, there will be no Jewish settlements or military control in Gaza, which is exactly what they wanted to do. That’s why they oppose the ceasefire deal. The right-wing religious parties have their own plan for the day after, which involves Jewish settlements in Gaza and Israeli military sovereignty there, similar to the West Bank.”
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Shpaizman highlighted the underlying motivations of these leaders. “They mask their objections as security concerns, but it’s about their vision of staying in Gaza and continuing the war,” she said. “They see this as an opportunity—or, as one minister put it, a ‘miracle,’ in the sense that it allows them to attempt to rebuild Gaza as a part of Israel and with Israeli settlements.”
She also explained why Ben Gvir seems ready to pull out of the coalition while Smotrich remains committed to Netanyahu’s government. According to Dr. Shpaizman, Ben Gvir knows that if he goes to elections, “he will get many seats because all the polls suggest that. All the public opinion polls suggest that he’s going to be re-elected and have about the same amount of seats.”
The Media Line contacted the offices of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
Meanwhile, for Smotrich, the political calculus is much grimmer “because he knows that he is not going to be in the next Knesset. All the public opinion surveys show that the voters don’t want him. Smotrich is unlikely to be re-elected in the next Knesset. So, he is more committed to keeping this government existing, moving forward,” she said.
For now, Netanyahu seems poised to weather yet another political storm. However, as Israel’s security challenges persist and political pressures mount, the question remains: How long can this balancing act continue? Instead of the current debate around the ceasefire, the experts who spoke to The Media Line believe that the new drafting law for the ultra-Orthodox to join the IDF is the real threshold.
If the ceasefire fails, that would certainly satisfy the most extreme right-wing elements of the government, but the ultra-Orthodox are more concerned about the law on military service, but they are not conditioning their support for the deal on that issue.
For now, Netanyahu’s government would need both Ben Gvir and Smotrich to pull out of the coalition, and only the ultra-Orthodox draft law would be the only subject that could make it. “If the ceasefire fails, that would certainly satisfy the most extreme right-wing elements of the government, but the ultra-Orthodox are more concerned about the law on military service, but they are not conditioning their support for the deal on that issue,” Inbar said.
Historically, ultra-Orthodox men dedicated to full-time religious studies were exempt from mandatory military service, a policy that has faced increasing scrutiny and legal challenges and placed Netanyahu’s government on a collision course with the Israeli Supreme Court.
Smotrich supports it, but his constituency—many of whom serve in the army and have suffered losses in the war—are very unhappy with it. This is where he’s losing support. The Likud party is also divided over the draft bill, which adds to the tension.
Dr. Shpaizman also believes that the draft bill still is the biggest threat to Netanyahu’s government, even more than the ceasefire deal. “Smotrich supports it, but his constituency—many of whom serve in the army and have suffered losses in the war—are very unhappy with it. This is where he’s losing support. The Likud party is also divided over the draft bill, which adds to the tension.”
The enforcement of the draft has sparked protests and civil disobedience among ultra-Orthodox Jews. In Bnei Brak, demonstrations erupted near the Tel Hashomer recruitment base, with protesters clashing with police forces. These protests underscore the community’s steadfast opposition to mandatory military service, which they believe infringes upon their religious commitments.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Knesset resumed deliberations on the government’s proposed judicial reforms that could enable Netanyahu’s coalition plans to stop drafting ultra-Orthodox men and satisfy his support base.
