Global Experts Warn of Iran’s Rapid Nuclear Advance at Tel Aviv Conference
At Tel Aviv’s INSS conference, experts warned that Iran’s uranium enrichment to 60% is accelerating its nuclear ambitions
The 18th Annual International Conference of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) convened in Tel Aviv, bringing together leading experts and policymakers to address pressing geopolitical challenges. Among the most highly anticipated discussions was the panel titled “On the Threshold: The Struggle of Israel and the West Against Iran’s Nuclear Program,” featuring Ambassador (ret.) Daniel B. Shapiro, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy, Sima Shine, Iran and Shiite Axis Research Program Director at INSS, and British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters. The panelists comprehensively assessed Iran’s nuclear advancements, diplomatic efforts, and potential military confrontations.
Iran’s Accelerated Path to Nuclear Capability
Iran is at a very short pace in becoming a nuclear power.
The panelists emphasized that Iran is advancing at an alarming pace toward nuclear capability. Sima Shine noted that Iran has already enriched uranium up to 60%, significantly reducing the time required to achieve weapons-grade levels. “Iran is at a very short pace in becoming a nuclear power,” she stated, underscoring the urgency of the matter. Walters echoed this concern, warning that a nuclear-armed Iran poses a direct threat not only to Israel but to regional and global stability.
The US Approach and Diplomatic Challenges
Ambassador Shapiro outlined the US strategy, particularly under former President Donald Trump, to bring Iran back to the negotiating table through diplomatic pressure and stringent sanctions. “Trump’s agreement will require the full dismantling of nuclear capabilities, the transfer of enriched materials, and transparency in declaring all nuclear sites,” Shapiro explained, adding that such conditions are “the only credible agreement if restrictions are to be permanent.” However, he acknowledged that Iran is unlikely to agree to such terms, raising questions about the feasibility of diplomatic efforts.
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Shapiro also emphasized the need for the US to pressure China to halt its economic dealings with Iran, particularly in the energy sector. “The US has to work on sanctions against China to stop it from profiting from Iranian oil,” he asserted, highlighting a critical economic dimension in the standoff.
Europe’s Role in the Negotiations
The three countries are pushing for a deadline in the middle of summer. If terms are not met by Iran, this could lead to a different scenario. The UK is pushing more aggressively and is not willing to risk anything with Iran.
Ambassador Walters provided insight into the European stance, stating that Germany, France, and the UK acknowledge the dangers posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “The three countries are pushing for a deadline in the middle of summer. If terms are not met by Iran, this could lead to a different scenario,” he noted, signaling an effort to accelerate diplomatic resolutions. However, he also highlighted the UK’s particularly firm approach: “The UK is pushing more aggressively and is not willing to risk anything with Iran,” reflecting a more assertive position in contrast to broader European diplomacy.
Israel’s Dilemma: Strike or Wait?
The discussion also addressed the changing sentiment in Israel regarding a potential preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, particularly following the October 7 attacks. A recent survey found that while 33% of Israelis support an attack without US backing, the number jumps to 53% if the US endorses such a move.
The Israeli society thinks after years that Israel should attack the nuclear sites now.
“The Israeli society thinks after years that Israel should attack the nuclear sites now,” Shine noted, reflecting growing domestic support for military action. However, concerns remain about the effectiveness of a unilateral strike. “If Israel does it alone, they must target deeply to dismantle the program for years, and a lot of training is needed for this move, such as Washington’s green light in the first place. It is all in the hands of Trump at this point, and Netanyahu for sure will be forced to follow the American lead,” she warned, adding that Israel lacks the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear program entirely as the US could. Overall, it seems from Trump’s rhetoric that there is no intention to push for a regional conflict and involve also American bases in the region.
Looking Ahead: 2025 as a Decisive Year
All panelists agreed that 2025 will be critical in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. Walters emphasized that if Iran refuses to abide by international regulations, the UK may have to reconsider its approach and assess whether to support a potential Israeli-US intervention. “Iran is conducting terrorist operations and is behind several terrorist activities all over the world, so the UK understands very well what Iran is capable of,” he noted.
Shapiro, meanwhile, cautioned that any military intervention must come with clear objectives and contingency planning. “The worst possibility for Israel is to go for an attack and not destroy the problem entirely,” he warned. Shine concluded with a sobering assessment: “Iran means what it says: ‘We will attack back every week if they attack us.’ A real attack from Israel should be an active measure, not just something put on the table.”
