After 45 Years, Will the Kurdish-Turkish Conflict in Iraq Come to an End?
The jailed founder of a Kurdish nationalist group has called for the movement to lay down its arms, but Kurdish forces seem unwilling to do as long as Turkish strikes continue
An armed conflict between Turkey and the northern Iraq-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known by the initials PKK, has been ongoing now for more than 45 years. Last month, founding PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called for the group to dissolve itself and lay down its arms, potentially indicating the dawn of a more peaceful era—but PKK operatives are skeptical about taking that path.
PKK leader Cemil Bayik said that constant bombardments by Turkish aircraft precluded reaching a party decision about dissolution or disarmament, according to media reports. “Every day they bomb, every day they attack, so holding a conference under these circumstances is impossible and dangerous,” Bayik was quoted as saying.
Öcalan’s call to dissolve the PKK has been shrouded in mystery. Now aged 76, Öcalan has been imprisoned for 26 years on a life sentence—leading some to believe that this change of heart is part of a deal to commute his current life sentence in exchange for house arrest in Turkey.
Previous negotiations between Turkey and the PKK—between 2009 and 2011 and then between 2013 and 2015—failed miserably, resulting in escalating violence. Kurds accuse Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of negotiating in bad faith.
Given shifting dynamics in Syria and Iraq and US President Donald Trump’s efforts to close all conflict files in the Middle East, the course of negotiations may take a turn.
Iraq, for its part, welcomed Abdullah Öcalan’s call, seeking to deescalate the conflict in northern Iraq and to remove both the PKK and Turkish forces, who are present under the pretext of fighting terrorism. Iraq previously signed a security cooperation agreement with Turkey in August 2024, allowing it to confront the PKK on Iraqi soil.
Masoud Barzani, the leader of Iraqi Kurdistan’s ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party, fully welcomed Öcalan’s call to lay down his arms, writing that “peace is the only right way to resolve differences.”
He also expressed his hope in a statement that “Öcalan’s message will be the beginning of putting the peace process on track and reaching an outcome that serves the interests of all parties.”
The president of the semiautonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani, also welcomed the message. He described Öcalan’s call as “an important step toward achieving peace and a peaceful solution in the region” that would require “peaceful, civil, and democratic struggle.”
Nechirvan Barzani expressed the Kurdistan Region’s full support for the peace process and its readiness to do everything possible to ensure its success.
Kurdish leaders affiliated with the PKK are more cautious about dissolving the party. They believe it is unwise to abandon 45 years of conflict with Turkey, with more than 40,000 dead according to unofficial statistics, and return to square one, especially since Turkey has not provided the Kurds with their demands.
“The Turkish authorities cannot be trusted, nor can decades of struggle be ended with the call of a president who is in prison,” Azad Akbar, a PKK activist living abroad, told The Media Line. “This call may have come primarily due to the great pressure on him, given his advanced age and numerous ailments.”
Dimitrov Salih, a Kurdish journalist living in Iraq’s Duhok province, similarly told The Media Line that Öcalan’s message is unlikely to affect the facts on the ground.
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I know the PKK members well. They will not surrender easily until they receive international guarantees regarding the safety and security of their leaders, first, and the rights of Kurds in Turkey, second.
“I know the PKK members well,” he said. “They will not surrender easily until they receive international guarantees regarding the safety and security of their leaders, first, and the rights of Kurds in Turkey, second.”
Turkish fighters and drones continue to fly over northern Iraq, including the city of Dohuk, where PKK members are present. Hundreds of farmers are still unable to return to their lands to the relentless bombardment.
These sorties and bombings persist despite attempts at calming the situation.
On the ground, the influence of the PKK has diminished due to Turkish military bases in northern Iraq, which have prevented these forces from advancing into Turkish territory as they had previously. Analysts say continuing the conflict inside Iraqi territory is futile.
According to Turkish authorities, Turkey has 11 military bases in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. PKK members claim there are 27 military bases and training centers for soldiers in the region. Jabbar al-Yawar, a former minister in the Kurdistan Regional Government, has estimated that as many as 80 such bases exist.
Turkish camps range from major to minor and are located in Erbil, Duhok, and Nineveh along the Iraqi-Turkish border. According to official statements, they are 10 kilometers deep in some Iraqi territories and 40 kilometers deep in other locations along the 200-kilometer border between the two countries.
It is unknown how many Turkish soldiers are stationed at Turkish bases in Iraq, but statements from several Iraqi military personnel indicate that there are no fewer than 4,000 Turkish soldiers. The military bases contain heavy military equipment, including tanks, artillery, military helicopters, and drones. Residents and eyewitnesses in villages in the Iraqi city of Duhok report daily patrols by Turkish forces in some areas of the province.
Qasim al-Araji, Iraq’s national security adviser, said in an interview with local media that both the PKK and Turkish forces must withdraw if the parties agree on a peace process.
“We do not want the PKK or the Turkish army on our lands. Iraq wants everyone to withdraw,” al-Araji said, adding that Turkish forces have confirmed that they have “no ambitions on Iraqi territory.”
Muwaffaq al-Abadi, an Iraqi political analyst, said that the Iraqi government must work to expel both sides of the conflict from Iraq.
Iraq does not care about the decades-long problems of its neighbors. We are not responsible for them. The party’s cadres must leave northern Iraq, and Turkish forces must also leave their bases. Iraq cannot tolerate further conflict.
“Iraq does not care about the decades-long problems of its neighbors,” al-Abadi told The Media Line. “We are not responsible for them. The party’s cadres must leave northern Iraq, and Turkish forces must also leave their bases. Iraq cannot tolerate further conflict.”
He said that northern Iraq could be well used by Turkish citizens for agriculture and tourism once the conflict comes to an end.
“The continued bombing and Turkish military presence in these areas have deprived the local population of these benefits,” he said. “We are in a war to which we are not party.”
On the other hand, Muhannad Ordollar, a Turkish political analyst close to the Turkish government, described the Turkish military presence in Iraq as legitimate “as long as terrorism exists.”
“It does not target Iraqi forces but rather these terrorist groups,” Ordollar told The Media Line. “Öcalan’s call may be to give them some time to regroup and then attack Turkey again.”
Earlier this month, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces signed a historic agreement with the new Syrian government. This move was driven by pressure from the continued intensive Turkish drone flights over Syria, as well as the potential withdrawal of US forces from Syria, which could expose the Kurdish forces to the complete loss of US security cover.
The agreement signed between Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi and the interim Syrian government stipulates “the integration of all civilian and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the Syrian state administration, including border crossings, the airport, and oil and gas fields,” according to the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency.
These changing geopolitical dynamics may not be enough to convince PKK supporters to dissolve the party.
The Kurds in Syria have received guarantees from the new Syrian government. The Kurds in Iraq are living and have all the rights they desire, including a federal region. As for the Kurds in Turkey, they still have no rights, and their cultural and social identity is being erased in Turkey. So what’s the point of laying down their arms and dissolving the party?
“The Kurds in Syria have received guarantees from the new Syrian government. The Kurds in Iraq are living and have all the rights they desire, including a federal region. As for the Kurds in Turkey, they still have no rights, and their cultural and social identity is being erased in Turkey,” Akbar, the PKK activist living abroad, said. “So what’s the point of laying down their arms and dissolving the party?”
“Perhaps armed military action is no longer feasible in a region experiencing significant tensions, but this does not negate the necessity of the party’s continuation,” he added. “This is the option the party and its leaders may choose, and it will be a peaceful opposition that continues to demand the rights of the Kurdish people.”
Amid these calls to end the Turkish-Kurdish conflict, Istanbul police arrested Ekrem İmamoğlu, the city’s mayor and a member of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), last Wednesday morning, March 19, on charges of money laundering, illegal donations, and supporting terrorist organizations.
İmamoğlu is thought to be close to the PKK, and the CHP was scheduled to announce him as its candidate in the upcoming presidential elections.
