‘Collapse at Any Moment’: Analysts Fear Rising Instability in Iraq Amid Political Infighting
Experts predict that the Iraqi political system will collapse in response to Sunni-Shiite disputes, internal political crises, corruption, and economic struggles
Disputes have broken out in Iraq between various Sunni and Shiite political parties regarding the implementation of the political agreement that led to the formation of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani’s government.
Prime Minister Al Sudani was elected as a representative of the Coordination Framework, an Iran-backed bloc of Shiite parties. An intense rivalry for control of the state has developed between him and Speaker of Parliament Mohamed Al-Halbousi, Iraq’s most prominent Sunni leader.
Following the Iraqi elections in October 2021, Sunni and Shiite parties agreed to work together on issues including the state budget and reforms around general amnesty, accountability, and justice. They also agreed to preserve a balance in government institutions.
The withdrawal from this agreement is expected to lead to widespread political chaos in Iraq. The situation is ripe for exploitation from various actors, including Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who does not hold any political position.
The Coordination Framework, which leads Iraq’s current government, has accused the Sunni parties allied with it of increasing their demands after the fact. The Sunni parties, on the other hand, have accused the Coordination Framework of reneging on its promises.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who leads the Coordination Framework-affiliated State of Law Coalition, launched a campaign together with Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-backed Badr Organization, to review the agreement with the Sunni parties in the government.
Al-Maliki told a television channel associated with the Coordination Framework that the formation of the government relied on “significant concessions” to the Sunni parties.
In addition to conflicts between Shiite and Sunni parties, internal conflicts within the ruling Shiite parties are threatening the rule of the Coordination Framework.
The most prominent dispute is a conflict over oil contracts between al-Maliki and Qais Khazali, leader of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq party. Iraq’s current oil minister, Hayan Abdul Ghani, belongs to al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition.
Each party has accused the other of seeking to overthrow the consensus and trying to obtain more positions in the government than the original agreement called for.
Sunni leadership, too, is threatened by internal rifts.
Sunni Speaker of Parliament Al-Halbousi is facing a crisis of legitimacy from other Sunni leaders, especially after accepting the resignation of Sunni lawmaker Laith al-Dulaimi.
Some Sunni politicians, including former lawmaker and prominent politician Jamal Al-Karboli, have accused Al-Halbousi of being a dictator.
In January, Raad al-Dahlaki, a member of parliament from Al-Halbousi’s Progress Party, resigned from Parliament, in another blow to the Sunni alliance.
Kurdish parties are also facing an internal crisis. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Bafel Talabani, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani, have been fighting over control of oil imports and border crossings.
Unlike the Shiite and Sunni parties, the Kurdish parties are on the way to resolving their differences. The Kurdistan Region has set November 18, 2023 as the date for holding the Kurdistan Parliament elections.
The long-standing issue of Iraqi corruption has also come to the fore again. Last year, the government released several corrupt figures who looted billions of dollars from the government budget.
One of the most prominent corrupt individuals who was released was Noor Zuhair, a businessman accused of stealing billions of dollars and laundering them through real estate purchases. Zuhair was released following a judicial decision and had all the money and property that had been confiscated by the government returned to him. He later fled to Turkey on a diplomatic passport.
The Iraqi government was also accused of taking part in a real estate grift wherein the state cowed to the demands of influential parties to convert agricultural land to lucrative residential land. After the plots were sold, the Iraqi court decided to freeze construction and sales on the land, incurring significant losses for the buyers.
Another controversy involves the government’s blind eye toward the parallel currency market. While a dollar trades for 1,310 Iraqi dinars on the official market, it can reach prices of up to 1,500 dinars on the parallel market.
Amid the widespread corruption, internal divides, and Sunni-Shiite disputes, the future of the Iraqi government is in peril.
The government of Mohammad Shia’ Al Sudani is threatened with collapse at any moment, and at that time Iraq will enter a dark tunnel
“The government of Mohammad Shia’ Al Sudani is threatened with collapse at any moment, and at that time Iraq will enter a dark tunnel,” Iraqi journalist Rida al-Shammari told The Media Line.
“Stability in Iraq is now temporary and will not last,” he said. “Political differences are spreading everywhere, and all parties have military wings, which are a great danger to Iraq.”
Al-Shammari said that Iraq’s record $152 billion budget, which was approved last month, will lead to further political chaos.
Everyone is practicing political blackmail against everyone
Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Iraqi parliamentary source told The Media Line that rival parties agreed to work together to pass the budget, but that such cooperation would be short-lived.
“The budget passed through consensus between the various parties, and what prompted its passage is that the state would have entered a state of bankruptcy and the inability to pay salaries and other things, which forced everyone to agree,” he said.
“Previously, we were negotiating as three parties, Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish,” the source said. “Now we must negotiate as more than 10 or 12 parties, according to the party to which each member of Parliament belongs.”
He noted that parties are threatening to accuse one another of corruption at the Commission of Integrity. “Everyone is practicing political blackmail against everyone,” he said.
The source predicted that the government would fall in the near future. “There will be a coup against the agreements that are currently taking place, just as there has been a coup against the agreements that formed the current government,” he said.
A member of the Commission of Integrity who asked to remain anonymous told The Media Line that corruption has infiltrated the commission itself, which is meant to guard against corruption.
“The government and some influential people have asked to close some files that are being investigated, and they are worth billions of dollars,” the source said.
“Some of those accused of corruption … have returned to power again, and now there are new types of financial corruption, fraud, and theft of public funds taking place in Iraq,” he added.
Dr. Abdul Karim Al-Wazzan, a former professor of media at the University of Baghdad, told The Media Line that the worst of the political disputes is yet to come.
“Now the alliances are changing in Iraq, and there will be a collapse of the old alliances soon, and I see that there will be more disputes in the next stage,” he said.
He noted that corruption in Iraq has also taken on another dimension.
“Previously, the thefts were limited to the state’s general budget. Now the thefts are done in another way, through projects directed at citizens, and they are sold at numbers much higher than reasonable profits,” he explained.
Retired Iraqi diplomat Osama Bahjat predicted that the political conflict will devolve into violence.
“I expect that there will be armed confrontations soon in Iraq after not reaching political consensus. Everyone has armed militias, and everyone wants bigger shares in the budget and in government positions,” he said.
Hassan al-Asadi, an Iraqi economic analyst, also predicted the collapse of the Iraqi state—but attributed that eventual collapse to economic, rather than purely political, reasons.
“This budget is very dangerous. The level of spending in it is high and it contradicts the advice and directives of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and other prestigious economic bodies,” he said.
The high rate of government employment makes the country especially vulnerable to economic collapse, al-Asadi said. He explained that more than 10% of the Iraqi population is employed by the government, not counting those employed by the military.
“There are fake jobs, and disguised unemployment, in addition to large spending on unreal projects,” he said.
If Iraq runs through its $94 billion in US reserves and faces bankruptcy, “politicians will flee with the big money they have, and the people will be left to suffer,” he said.
