Construction Begins on Afghan Portion of South-Central Asian Gas Pipeline
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline stands to improve energy access for the four countries involved, but only if they can overcome the security and geopolitical challenges standing in the project’s way
[Islamabad] Construction of the Afghan section of a gas pipeline between Turkmenistan and India was inaugurated on Wednesday, with senior officials from both Turkmenistan and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban in attendance.
The ceremony, celebrating the next step in rolling out the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, was attended by Afghan Prime Minister Hasan Akhund and Turkmenistan’s Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, chair of the People’s Council of Turkmenistan.
Berdimuhamedow’s son, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedow, addressed the ceremony via video conference, providing updates on the development projects between Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. Representatives from both countries’ Chambers of Commerce and Ministries of Petroleum also participated.
The TAPI project is an ambitious initiative to connect Central Asia’s vast natural gas reserves and provide for the growing energy needs of South Asian nations. The completed pipeline will stretch about 1,127 miles from the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border to the Pakistan-India border.
The Afghan government declared a public holiday in Herat, the provincial capital, to mark the occasion. According to the Afghan media reports, Prime Minister Akhund said in his address, “This day has been long awaited, and despite many challenges and hardships, these significant projects were finally inaugurated.”
The idea for the TAPI project was first developed in 1990, and the consortium was officially established in 2014. The Afghan section of the pipeline was meant to be completed in 2018, but security concerns and political instability have led to repeated delays in construction. To date, only the section in Turkmenistan has been completed.
The project involves the purchase, installation, and management of the pipeline and related infrastructure in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The state-owned gas companies of all four participating countries are contributing to its development.
Once fully operational, the pipeline will transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year. Pakistan and India will each receive 47.5% of the gas, and Afghanistan will receive the remaining 5%.
The TAPI project aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan’s southeastern Galkynysh gas field, one of the largest gas fields in the world. The pipeline is set to pass through the Herat, Helmand, and Kandahar provinces of Afghanistan before crossing into Pakistan and running through Quetta and Multan. It will terminate at Fazilka, India, where it will be linked to India’s gas network. The joint energy project is being funded by the Asian Development Bank at an estimated cost of $10 billion.
The leaders of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan have initiated several additional projects alongside the pipeline, including a 500-kilovolt power transmission line supplying electricity from Turkmenistan to Pakistan as well as a fiber optic line in Afghanistan. A 14-mile railway line between the Afghan cities of Torghundi and Herat will also be constructed, meant to position Afghanistan as a key corridor between Central and South Asia.
The power transmission line is set to generate $110 million per year in transit fees for Afghanistan, and the new fiber optic line will improve regional connectivity.
Kabul’s chief spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, said in a televised interview that the projects are expected “to create 12,000 jobs in Afghanistan and generate over $1 billion in revenue” overall.
Turkmenistan, a former Soviet republic home to the world’s largest natural gas reserves, sees the project as a way to tap into new global markets. The pipeline offers an important export route, reducing the country’s reliance on Russia and China.
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Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India are all set to benefit from the project as well.
Afghanistan stands to gain transit fees, new jobs, and an increased energy supply. Pakistan, which faces chronic energy shortages, and India, a country with rapidly increasing energy demands, both see the pipeline as a vital source of natural gas.
The TAPI project is also seen as a symbol of regional cooperation, with the potential to improve political ties between historically contentious neighbors.
Several major challenges stand in the way of the pipeline’s completion. The most pressing issue is the security situation in the Balochistan region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, where ongoing conflict threatens the pipeline’s safety. Although Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban has expressed full support for the project, security remains a critical concern.
Experts who spoke to The Media Line expressed mixed feelings about the pipeline’s ability to address the energy crisis, especially given strained relations between India and Pakistan.
Syed Noor Muhammed, a Kabul-based economist, celebrated the TAPI pipeline as a driver for economic development in Afghanistan.
The project not only provides much-needed jobs during the construction and operational phases but also stimulates local industries through improved access to energy resources. The project has the potential to generate substantial revenue through transit fees and attract foreign investments, both of which can be reinvested in the country’s infrastructure and services.
“The project not only provides much-needed jobs during the construction and operational phases but also stimulates local industries through improved access to energy resources,” he told The Media Line. “The project has the potential to generate substantial revenue through transit fees and attract foreign investments, both of which can be reinvested in the country’s infrastructure and services.”
Muhammed said that the pipeline would help integrate Afghanistan into the regional economy.
Noureen Akhtar, a policy consultant at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, noted that pipeline supporters say it could address Pakistan’s energy crisis by providing a stable supply of natural gas from Turkmenistan.
This would boost industrial production, reduce the strain on foreign reserves used for energy imports, and promote economic growth by improving energy security. The pipeline aligns with Pakistan’s long-term plan to become a regional energy hub, strengthening its relations with South and Central Asian countries.
“This would boost industrial production, reduce the strain on foreign reserves used for energy imports, and promote economic growth by improving energy security,” she told The Media Line. “The pipeline aligns with Pakistan’s long-term plan to become a regional energy hub, strengthening its relations with South and Central Asian countries.”
Akhtar said that the project’s success depends on managing diplomatic and geopolitical challenges between the countries involved, particularly Pakistan and India. She said that tensions between India and Pakistan are likely to lead India to pull out of the project.
“India is instead exploring alternative energy sources, such as importing LNG [liquefied natural gas], while the security threats in Afghanistan, particularly with the Taliban in power, pose significant risks to the project,” Akhtar said. She added that any instability could delay construction and raise concerns about the pipeline’s future.
Amrita Saha, a regional defense and security analyst based in Kanpur, India, also emphasized the geopolitical difficulties facing the pipeline. Saha said a similar project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, has been stymied by security challenges, with Chinese workers in Balochistan facing constant threats.
“Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran must guarantee the pipeline’s security, regardless of the prevailing political conditions,” she told The Media Line.
Especially given threats to regional security from nonstate actors like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State group, the regional climate may be too volatile for a large-scale project of this sort, Saha said. She stressed that countries ought to focus on regional cooperation addressing these security risks.
Like Akhtar, Saha expressed doubts that India will participate in the TAPI pipeline. She said the Indian government will likely seek out alternative energy sources.
Pakistan might refuse to cooperate with India, even at the expense of its economy.
In another potential scenario for the pipeline’s future, “Pakistan might refuse to cooperate with India, even at the expense of its economy,” Saha said.
