France in a Standoff: 2nd Round of Legislative Elections Shock the Country and the World
France's left-wing NFP coalition leads in legislative elections, taking 181 seats and surpassing Macron's centrist party. Marine Le Pen's RN falls to third with 143 seats after leading in polls
In a shocking reversal of earlier projections, France’s left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition surged to first place in Sunday’s second round of voting for the country’s legislative elections.
According to the Interior Ministry’s current estimates, the NFP will take at least 181 seats, usurping President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist presidential majority, which took second place with about 160 seats.
Sunday’s results were a devastating blow to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which came in third, winning only 143 seats despite the party’s commanding lead in the first round of voting and polling predicting an RN victory.
Shock and celebration consumed Paris on Sunday in response to the results. Videos posted to social media of RN’s election-night headquarters depicted a scene of confusion and disappointment, with party staffers and supporters seemingly in a daze.
Conversely, at the NFP’s rally at Paris’ famous Place de la République, thousands of supporters cheered, hugged, and shed tears of joy as the results came in.
One of the most powerful elected offices across all democracies, the French presidency provides the officeholder with wide-reaching executive power, including the ability to dissolve France’s lower house, the 577-seat National Assembly.
Macron’s decision to hold snap elections after his centrist coalition’s major loss in the recent European Union parliamentary elections shocked the country and the world alike. However, some of the president’s senior advisers claim that Macron’s most trusted confidants had been planning the high-risk gamble for months.
According to the president’s adviser on historical issues, Bruno Roger-Petit, fewer than 10 people were even aware of the plan, namely high-level officials like his chief of staff, Alexis Kohler, and Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin.
The days after Macron’s announcement saw the hasty formation of the now-victorious NFP.
Led in part by the fiery Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his far-left France Unbowed party, the coalition includes France’s center-left Socialist Party, Greens, and Communists.
Deeply controversial within France, Mélenchon broke with other mainstream centrist and center-left parties on the war in Gaza and has accused Israel of committing genocide.
Re-elected in 2022 to a second five-year term, Macron’s meteoric rise to the presidency and the widespread dominance of his centrist, pro-European coalition caused the French left to largely cannibalize itself as voters fractured across dozens of parties.
However, coalition leaders say that the threat of a far-right majority was reason enough to unite under one banner.
The real potential of an RN victory, which appeared to many as almost certain after the party’s strong showing in the first round on June 30, even prompted the NFP and Macron’s Ensemble to coordinate directly, agreeing to strategically pull out their respective candidates in three-way races to avoid vote splitting.
While Macron was successful in electorally rebuking the far right, and his party exceeded expectations, some experts hold that his gamble was nonetheless a failure.
“Yes, he was able to keep the far right in the first place, but they’ve increased their seat share, and now he has to deal with this unruly left and unruly right,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Insight, explained in an interview on Monday. “In terms of his legacy, he will be in for a real political fight.”
While some have theorized that Macron called for early elections, in the event of an RN legislative majority, he would still hold the presidency and serve as a countervailing force.
As the president is unable to run again in 2027, and Le Pen and her RN party are now campaigning on the idea that the center and left’s strategic coordination is proof of a rigged system, the far right is better positioned than ever to make a run for the presidency.
In the meantime, Macron will now have to appoint a new cabinet, including a new prime minister, and attempt to govern alongside a hung parliament for the remaining three years of his term.
