Hizbullah’s Role in Escalation: Assessing the Likelihood of an All-Out War Along Israel’s Northern Border

While America is investing efforts to prevent the opening of an additional front, the possibility of escalation remains

Tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border have escalated since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on October 7 following Hamas’s terror attack on Israel. While Hizbullah has continuously executed measured hostilities against Israel over the last two months, the Iran-backed Shiite group has not yet attacked Israel to an extent that would spark an all-out war. However, the opening of such a war remains on the table.

We can no longer accept [Hizbullah’s elite] Radwan Force sitting on the border. We can no longer accept Resolution 1701 not being implemented.

On Saturday night, Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi suggested that, following the culmination of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel might need to engage in a military campaign against Hizbullah along the northern border with Lebanon.

“We can no longer accept [Hizbullah’s elite] Radwan Force sitting on the border. We can no longer accept Resolution 1701 not being implemented,” he said.

Security Council Resolution 1701 called for the establishment of a demilitarized zone between the Blue Line, where the border fence currently stands, and the Litani River. It was ratified by both Israel and Lebanon in 2006, but Hizbullah’s military wing is currently standing in the supposedly demilitarized area.

After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on the terror organization, vowed to eradicate its military and governmental capabilities, and launched an offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, a significant part of Israel’s military resources has been invested in protecting the country’s northern border. Likewise, citizens of both areas, the Gaza border region and Israel’s North, have been evacuated, and their towns have become military zones for the time being.

Hizbullah has been employing a tit-for-tat strategy against Israel since the onset of the Gaza war and aims to avoid an all-out conflict at this time

According to Dr. Omer Dostri, a researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and an expert on national security and military strategy, it appears that Hizbullah is reluctant to declare war on Israel. “Hizbullah has been employing a tit-for-tat strategy against Israel since the onset of the Gaza war and aims to avoid an all-out conflict at this time,” he told The Media Line.

He believes that Hizbullah’s goal is to serve as an auxiliary force for the “axis of resistance” by aiming to draw a significant Israeli military presence to the northern border and diverting resources from the Gaza front rather than being a leading or complementary force. Dr. Jacques Neriah, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a former foreign policy adviser to the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, told The Media Line that, at this moment, the chances of Israel doing something to initiate a war with Hizbullah are slight.

An expert on Lebanon, Neriah noted that the Biden Administration is asking Israel to restrain from expanding the war beyond the conflict with Hamas.

“The White House is concerned that a regional conflict could draw the US and Iran into an all-out war,” Dostri added.

That said, Neriah stressed that Hizbullah has its own plans, interests, and considerations. “During the last few days, we are witnessing the widening or deepening of [Hizbullah’s] military intervention inside Israel,” he said, adding that Hizbullah has been firing toward towns and targets beyond the 4-5-kilometer range it has attacked since the beginning of the war.

Additionally, Neriah pointed out that the terror organization is using new weapons not employed in the past, such as missiles with bigger warheads capable of carrying more than 100 kilos of TNT, suicide drones, and short-range missiles.

“Luckily for us, all its attempts have not succeeded in creating severe casualties on the Israeli side. But if, God forbid, this could happen, then I think that the whole equation will change because Israel will not accept suffering such losses facing Hizbullah,” he said.

Dostri agreed, adding that “if Hizbullah launches a continuous barrage of missiles on Haifa, the northern valley communities, and even Israel’s coastal plain, or if it mounts a successful terrorist attack on Israeli citizens, Israel will have to respond with massive firepower and preparations for a ground assault on southern Lebanon.”

Despite US attempts to exert pressure on Israel to refrain from starting this all-out war, Neriah said that in terms of doing the same on Hizbullah’s side, America has almost no leverage.

He noted that Lebanon currently has no functioning government or prime minister, as both are transitional and have no power to sign any agreement according to the Lebanese constitution. Additionally, he said that the country’s presidency has been vacant for over a year.

“The means to influence Hizbullah are very slim and shallow, and I don’t think that the US has anything more than threatening with aircraft carriers or with Joe Biden’s famous sentence, ‘Don’t.’ So, this is the only thing that stands between Hizbullah and waging a war with Israel,” Dostri said.

Regardless, Dostri noted that there are additional factors to be considered by Hizbullah before opening a war against Israel. First, he said that the issue of its current military capabilities and combat readiness is a factor influencing Hizbullah’s decision.

The Iranians seem to understand quite well that in the event of war in the North, Israel’s goal would be the destruction of Hizbullah through a ground assault on Lebanon—similar to what is underway in Gaza

Also, he noted that it is important to consider the organization’s behavior in a wider context, meaning the strategic significance of Hizbullah for Iran as its strongest proxy group. “The Iranians seem to understand quite well that in the event of war in the North, Israel’s goal would be the destruction of Hizbullah through a ground assault on Lebanon—similar to what is underway in Gaza,” he said.

If this occurs, Dostri continued, “Israel would almost certainly further seek to annihilate all Iranian military forces and proxies in Syria and perhaps Iraq. This would destroy Iran’s most valuable strategic assets against Israel and leave the mullahs’ regime vulnerable to direct Israeli attack.”

Lastly, he noted that while Hizbullah is close to and often controlled by Iran, it must also respond to internal Lebanese politics. Neriah said that the Lebanese people are already in distress due to the war, especially the citizens in the south of the country who are either caught between fire or have fled north. “According to what I hear, there are no flats for rent anymore in Beirut,” he noted.

In addition, he said that many Lebanese are complaining that the economic situation is more difficult today than in the past. Dostri noted that the current Lebanese economic meltdown is marked by the collapse of its banks, an alarming 80% unemployment rate, 170% inflation, and an official exchange rate of about 15,000 Lebanese pounds equaling $1.