Israel-Egypt Peace Sustained by Economic Incentives Amid Gaza War, Experts Say
Israeli rhetoric about moving Palestinians into Egypt has rattled Cairo, as has Israel’s takeover of the Rafah border crossing
As the Israeli military’s ground operation in Rafah continues for a third week, tensions between Israel and Egypt, which borders Gaza, have continued to grow. The ongoing war is testing the strength of Israel’s longest-lasting peace treaty with an Arab nation.
After decades of hostile relations and several wars, Israel and Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979. As part of the treaty, Israel agreed to return the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, which Israel had occupied during the 1967 Six-Day War. In return, Israel gained an influential Arab ally and a more secure southern border. The peace treaty also improved Egypt’s ties with the US, with US aid to Israel increasing significantly in the aftermath of the deal.
Egypt was the first Arab state to recognize Israel. Jordan followed Egypt’s lead in 1994, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan normalized relations with Israel in 2020
In the 45 years since Israel and Egypt established diplomatic relations, the two countries have cooperated economically, militarily, and politically. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis visit Egypt each year, and the two countries share intelligence to fight terrorism in Sinai. Egypt also signed a $15 billion gas import deal with an Israeli company in 2018.
Despite the peace treaty’s benefits to both countries, relations between Israel and Egypt have been strained by the ongoing war in Gaza. The Media Line spoke with regional experts about the outlook for Egypt-Israel relations.
Mira Tzoreff, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told The Media Line that the relations between Israel and Egypt are growing colder as the war in Gaza continues.
As the late Egyptian President [Anwar] Sadat mentioned, it remained the country’s goal to reach a solution for the Palestinians.
“As the late Egyptian President [Anwar] Sadat mentioned, it remained the country’s goal to reach a solution for the Palestinians,” Tzoreff said.
Despite strained political ties between the two countries, trade relations have remained stable, Haisam Hassanein, an expert on Israel-Arab relations at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Media Line. “Israeli fuel goes into Egypt. Both Jordan and Egypt also renewed their water-sharing agreement, despite strained political bilateral ties,” he said.
In December, two months after the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, the head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees accused Israel of attempting to move Gazans into Egypt. Some Israeli politicians have publicly backed the idea.
Egypt has consistently rejected the possibility of relocating Gazans into its territory, temporarily or permanently.
“Israel’s insistence on relocating refugees to Egypt triggers the country’s national security,” Nourhan N. Moussa, a Cairo-based international lawyer and law professor, told The Media Line.
Egypt’s national security concerns relate to the threat of Hamas infiltration into its borders. The group is especially concerning to Egypt because of its ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt and seen as a threat to the ruling party. Egyptian leaders are also concerned about the potential strain an influx of refugees could put on the country’s already unstable economy.
“Egypt has every right to protect itself by constructing physical barriers with the Gaza border, destroying underground tunnels connected to its territory and containing entries,” Moussa said.
Earlier this month, Israeli forces took control of the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, through which the vast majority of humanitarian aid enters Gaza. Since then, the border crossing has been closed, with Israel and Egypt accusing each other of preventing the crossing’s reopening.
The situation has been so frustrating to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that it may jeopardize the peace deal, Tzoreff, the Tel Aviv University researcher, said.
Five days after Israel took over the Rafah border crossing, Egypt joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Joe Truzman, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Media Line that Egypt’s decision to join the genocide case was part of an effort to maintain ties with Israel while placating the Egyptian public, which has been frustrated with el-Sisi’s perceived inaction.
Egyptians are, for the vast majority, pro-Palestinian.
“Egyptians are, for the vast majority, pro-Palestinian,” Truzman said.
As part of its defense at the ICJ, Israel pointed to the existence of 50 tunnels between Egypt and Rafah.
“These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages or Hamas senior operatives,” Israeli Deputy Attorney General Gilad Noam told the ICJ.
Truzman said that Egypt may have known about Hamas’ activity in the tunnels but “looked the other way.”
He said that the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt will likely stand, especially since Egypt has more to lose by severing ties with Israel.
Hassan Ka’bia, Israel’s former consul general to Alexandria and the Israeli military’s deputy spokesperson for Arab media, agreed that neither Israel nor Egypt is likely to withdraw from the peace deal.
CNN reported yesterday that a senior Egyptian intelligence official had secretly edited the cease-fire proposal received by Hamas earlier this month to create terms that were more favorable to Hamas, news which may further test the two nations’ ties.
Debbie Mohnblatt and Nathan Klabin contributed to this article.
Giorgia Valente is a recent graduate of Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and an intern in The Media Line’s Press and Policy Student Program.
