Israel Prepares for Iran’s Next Attack, Knowing It Has the Upper Hand
Despite Iran’s threat of a ‘crushing response’ after Israel’s October airstrike, life in the Jewish state goes on
In the latest move in the growing escalation with Israel, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a threat to the Jewish country and the United States, promising a “crushing response” to recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets. On October 26, Israel’s air-launched ballistic missiles reportedly targeted Iranian missile facilities and caused multiple fatalities. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, responsible for that country’s ballistic missile operations, backed Khamenei’s threat, asserting that the retaliation would be “powerful and beyond comprehension.”
While the Islamic Republic readies its attack against Israel, the US is deploying in the region B-52 bombers, fighter jets, refueling aircraft, and Navy destroyers. These are on top of the recently approved deployment of THAAD systems and additional troops to operate them in the country.
Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder recently provided the following statement: “In keeping with our commitments to the protection of US citizens and forces in the Middle East, the defense of Israel, and de-escalation through deterrence and diplomacy, the Secretary of Defense ordered the deployment of additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several US Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region. These forces will begin to arrive in the coming months as the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group prepares to depart.”
Major (Res.) Avraham Levine, a speaker and digital content manager at the Alma Research and Education Center in Israel, explained to The Media Line that he doesn’t think the upcoming attack is the main issue. Instead, he emphasized the Iranian involvement in the area by way of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Muslim Resistance in Iraq.
Iran has been attacking Israel daily since October 7, 2023, which brings me to the second point: the threat of an escalation of direct attacks to an all-out war is a major concern in Israel as well as the US administration and the rest of the countries involved.
According to Levine, “Iran has been attacking Israel daily since October 7, 2023, which brings me to the second point: the threat of an escalation of direct attacks to an all-out war is a major concern in Israel as well as the US administration and the rest of the countries involved.”
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior project manager at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, believes Israel “has to be prepared for any kind of attack from Iran. They’ve [Iran] attempted various sophisticated actions that we managed to thwart.”
Kuperwasser noted how, recently, Iran tried to carry out assassinations against high-ranking Israeli officials and target Israeli assets outside the region, seeking deniability to avoid a full Israeli response. However, he said, since Iran didn’t succeed in these attempts, “this now raises the likelihood of a missile attack from Iran. Israel is prepared for that as well.”
The Americans have also brought in offensive weapons to signal to Iran that any aggressive action will likely provoke both Israeli and American responses. Iran may target American assets, especially since they claim the US was involved in attacks against them.
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Considering the presence of US forces in the region, Kuperwasser assesses that the combined Israeli and American defensive systems are prepared. “The Americans have also brought in offensive weapons to signal to Iran that any aggressive action will likely provoke both Israeli and American responses. Iran may target American assets, especially since they claim the US was involved in attacks against them,” he added.
However, because of Israel’s upper hand in the escalation game against Iran, the Islamic regime is in a position where it feels compelled to respond to Israel but might want to do so cautiously to avoid a severe counterattack.
Kuperwasser believes that Iran is in a tough spot. “If they attack, they risk a strong Israeli response; if they don’t, they appear weak. It’s a lose-lose situation for them. This could push them toward a significant action just to maintain self-respect. They will encourage their proxies, but these groups are limited. Hamas, for instance, isn’t able to do much, Hezbollah’s attempts largely fail, and even the Houthis aren’t as active as before. Iran has considered using Iraqi soil for operations, but this reliance on proxies is problematic for them, as it exposes their inability to fully support their allies,” he asserted.
The Syrian front, for instance, is yet to take a major part in this escalation and is an option Iran might choose.
Given that Iran has been using its proxies against Israel, it is possible that an attack originating from outside Iran could allow both sides to save face. “The Syrian front, for instance, is yet to take a major part in this escalation and is an option Iran might choose,” Levine explained.
Many people hope the result of Iran’s attack will be minimal and allow both sides to avoid further conflict. However, “many Israelis would like to see a more aggressive approach against Iran, specifically Iran’s nuclear project,” he added.
Levine sees an opportunity for “Israel to stop the attack before it happens, as it did on August 25 against an upcoming Hezbollah attack from Lebanon.” He also recommended targeting Iranian nuclear facilities “to kill two birds with one attack and responding to the Iranian aggression and stopping the continuing and developing threat of Iranian nuclear power.”
Concluded Levine: “The international pressure to calm things down and reach a cease-fire agreement is understood, but Israeli citizens and their safety always come first.”
Meanwhile, Kuperwasser disagrees that Israel should consider a preemptive attack, as it would destabilize the “escalation game,” which ultimately favors Israel.
A preemptive strike is unlikely unless Iran clearly prepares missiles for launch. We responded last week based on their actions on October 1. For now, Israel is waiting for Iran’s next move, which would give it the legitimacy to respond more forcefully in the next escalation round.
“A preemptive strike is unlikely unless Iran clearly prepares missiles for launch. We responded last week based on their actions on October 1. For now, Israel is waiting for Iran’s next move, which would give it the legitimacy to respond more forcefully in the next escalation round,” he said.
Considering that after the initial rounds of this escalation, Iran’s economy observed moments of fear; every new escalation against Israel also impacts their economy and learning curve.
Dr. Reza Khanzadeh, a senior foreign policy advisor at the US-Iran Chamber of Commerce, explained to The Media Line how the Persian economy is handling the potential escalation. According to Khanzadeh, despite Khamenei’s latest remarks that Israel and the US will experience a “teeth-breaking” response, there has been very little reaction from Iran’s financial markets.
This is “primarily because there is an advanced black market in Iran, along with a sophisticated level of corruption, and a highly centralized monopolization by the insiders of the Islamic Republic, which have allowed companions of the regime to benefit greatly as a result of such political rhetoric, regional conflict, sanctions, and economic turmoil,” he explained.
Ever since October 26, 2024—when Israel attacked Iran—the value of the rial against the US dollar has declined, “and yet daily life in Iran for its ordinary citizens continues as before, but with an increased level of uncertainty and stress to maintain a standard of living to provide for their loved ones,” Khanzadeh detailed.
Iran has already experienced these moments of uncertainty in the lead-up to Iran’s two prior attacks on Israel on April 13 and October 1 of 2024. The oil and gas markets will adjust and readjust, and the world will move virtually unchanged.
These struggles continue for Iranian citizens while “the Islamic Republic plans to increase its military budget by 200%,” he added. “Iran has already experienced these moments of uncertainty in the lead-up to Iran’s two prior attacks on Israel on April 13 and October 1 of 2024. The oil and gas markets will adjust and readjust, and the world will move virtually unchanged.”
Although some experts warn that the escalation between Iran and Israel may intensify, Khanzadeh believes “this would be an error because the war of attrition between Iran and Israel is not in favor of Iran. The time will come when the Islamic Republic has to prioritize the protection of its own existence over its direct conflict with Israel, and Iran will delegate this conflict back to its proxies in Iraq, Syria, and the Houthis while rebuilding Hamas and Hezbollah,” he concluded.
