After 400 Days Of War, Protests and Mediation Efforts Still Yield Little Results
Over 400 days into the Israel-Hamas war, thousands are dead, hostages remain, and protests accuse Netanyahu of stalling. Trump’s reelection and Qatar's diplomacy shift may impact future ceasefire talks
It has been 400 days since the war between Hamas and Israel began. Over a year of fighting, thousands of victims, and countless attempts to stop the war have so far failed, with both sides standing their ground, making compromise elusive.
All the while, the protest movement in Israel continues to stage demonstrations, demanding the government secure the release of 101 hostages still being held by Hamas, accusing it and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of blocking a deal due to political considerations.
Changes in the global political arena are likely to impact the war. The election of US President Donald Trump, tensions with Iran, and Qatar’s reported shifting position as a leading mediator in ceasefire negotiations will influence the course of the war, both immediately and in the long term.
On Saturday, a spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry denied the reports that Qatar had withdrawn from the mediation efforts, saying they were “inaccurate.”
Qatar said … it would resume those efforts … when the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.
“Qatar said … it would resume those efforts … when the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war,” read a statement by the ministry, saying both Hamas and Israel were told in the last round of talks that efforts by Qatar would then be “stalled.”
The US has reportedly asked the Qatari government to expel Hamas leaders living in Doha, a report the Qatari ministry also described as “inaccurate.”
If this will be confirmed, it is an attempt by Qatar to show a greater leaning towards the US, which is under pressure to get to results.
“If this will be confirmed, it is an attempt by Qatar to show a greater leaning towards the US, which is under pressure to get to results,” said Ariel Admoni, a PhD candidate specializing in foreign and domestic relations of Qatar at Bar Ilan University.
Outgoing US President Joe Biden will be eager to leave the White House in January with an achievement in the war that has dominated the American foreign agenda in the past year.
For almost a year, thousands of Israelis have been staging weekly demonstrations calling on the government to make concessions to secure the release of the Israeli hostages still in the hands of the Hamas terrorist organization.
Hamas stunned Israel on October 7, 2023, when thousands of terrorists stormed the border and executed a well-planned, violent rampage that killed approximately 1200 Israelis while wounding thousands of others. Hamas terrorists also took over 250 people hostage, many of them civilians. In response, Israel launched a massive military offensive in the Gaza Strip. Hamas health officials claim over 43,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result of Israel’s military actions in Gaza and over 102,000 injured. Hamas figures do not distinguish between civilians and terrorists.
Since the war began, 154 hostages have been returned, most through a temporary cease-fire with Hamas in November of last year. Eight hostages have been rescued alive in military operations, while the bodies of over 30 have been recovered and laid to rest in Israel. The fate of the remaining hostages remains uncertain. At least thirty are presumed dead. Pressure to reach a deal has increased as time is not on the side of the hostages. Many are believed to be hidden in Hamas’ deep underground tunnels.
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Netanyahu has denied accusations of political considerations hindering a deal. Vowing total victory over Hamas, he has insisted Israel will maintain a military presence in Gaza. Refusing this, Hamas has ruled out any compromise on the hostages. The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli troops last month was thought to have the potential of being a catalyst to a hostage deal, but almost a month on, and nothing has changed. Hamas has remained consistent in its demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a cessation of its war effort. Israel also has not budged.
Since the beginning of the war, there have been several attempts to conclude it. In May, Biden put forward a proposal that was agreed to by Netanyahu that entailed a temporary cease-fire and a gradual release of the hostages. Israel would also agree to a massive influx of humanitarian aid, a contentious subject internally, as many Israelis see Hamas’ possession of the aid as a critical factor in its ability to maintain power. The plan, however, never materialized. Netanyahu set conditions that Hamas refused to, such as a permanent Israeli military presence in Gaza’s main entry point at its border with Egypt.
Even if Israel were to agree to such conditions, there is no guarantee that the hostages would have been released.
“Even if Israel were to agree to such conditions, there is no guarantee that the hostages would have been released,” Roni Rimon, a strategic adviser and partner at the public relations firm Rimon Cohen & Co., told The Media Line. “Israeli withdrawal from Gaza means keeping Hamas in power. Can a country agree to such a dictation? This is a matter of contention between different views.”
According to a poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute on Sunday, a majority of Israelis believe Israel can, after a year of war, allow itself to be more flexible in its position toward Hamas to secure a hostage release deal. A large chunk of Hamas’ leadership has been eliminated, and much of its military infrastructure is believed to have been destroyed by the Israeli army. Gaza is in ruins, with billions of US Dollars estimated needed for a rehabilitation effort that is expected to take years.
Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan Zangauker was abducted from his home in Kibbutz Nir Oz on October 7, has become a prominent figure in the protests. At the forefront of many demonstrations, Zangauker has called for Netanyahu’s resignation. Speaking at a weekly statement as a representative of several hostage families on Saturday, she said the conditions for a deal were ripe. Fueled by Netanyahu’s sacking of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, she repeated her accusations against the Israeli premier.
Gallant has said there is nothing left for the military to do in Gaza. Netanyahu refuses out of criminal, political considerations. It is because of him hostages are dying in captivity and soldiers are being killed in battle.
“Gallant has said there is nothing left for the military to do in Gaza,” Zangauker told the media. “Netanyahu refuses out of criminal, political considerations. It is because of him hostages are dying in captivity and soldiers are being killed in battle.”
Last week, when Netanyahu announced he was firing Gallant, he essentially removed the last true internal opposition he had within his government. Although other matters, such as a bill to cement the contentious exemption of ultra-orthodox males from compulsory military service, could potentially lead to the collapse of the coalition, the conduct of the war is currently a matter of complete consensus within the cabinet.
“Netanyahu now has the backing to operate in the most assertive way possible,” said Rimon. “If he will relent now, he will be criticized.”
Netanyahu leads a right-wing coalition with ultra-nationalist elements that refuse to agree to any concessions towards the Palestinians.
“How come, since the death of Sinwar, Israel hasn’t brought forward a proposal? How come instead of using the momentum, we have caused the Qataris to withdraw from mediation?” Zangauker also asked.
Israel has been criticized for Qatari involvement in the mediation. Qatar is one of Hamas’ main supporters and is seen by Israelis as an unfair broker. According to Admoni, Qatar has been supporting Hamas since it began as a movement in the 1970s, increasing its support two decades later and making it more visible by hosting Hamas’ leadership that was ousted from Jordan.
Qatar depicts its relations with Hamas as a way of opening lines of communication with the group and helping in solving the conflict. Relying on Qatar is a mistake on Israel’s part in the longer term, even though it sounds like it makes sense in the short term to give them legitimacy. Qatar is looking out for its interests in the mediation. In the case of Hamas and Israel, Qatar also identifies itself with Hamas’ cause and, according to some reports, even funds other elements that are hostile to Israel.
“Qatar depicts its relations with Hamas as a way of opening lines of communication with the group and helping in solving the conflict,” Admoni explained further. “Relying on Qatar is a mistake on Israel’s part in the longer term, even though it sounds like it makes sense in the short term to give them legitimacy. Qatar is looking out for its interests in the mediation. In the case of Hamas and Israel, Qatar also identifies itself with Hamas’ cause and, according to some reports, even funds other elements that are hostile to Israel.”
In some instances, in recent years, Qatar has funded Hamas with the direct approval of Netanyahu. Pictures of cash-filled suitcases entering Gaza circulating on social media angered Israelis before the war, but the policy came under increased criticism in the aftermath of the October 7 attack. Many Israelis believe Qatari money and Israeli acquiescence were a critical factor in Hamas’ strengthening.
As the war progressed, criticism of the Israeli government evolved. At the beginning of the war, demonstrations were held to pressure Netanyahu and his allies to negotiate a deal.
Now, this is a protest movement. This is a strategic mistake because some of the hostage families have joined with anti-government elements. This has alienated parts of the public who support the government but also want to support the families of the hostages.
“Now, this is a protest movement,” said Rimon. “This is a strategic mistake because some of the hostage families have joined with anti-government elements. This has alienated parts of the public who support the government but also want to support the families of the hostages.”
According to Rimon, the protest movement has little chance of toppling the government, as some of its members wish.
The families of the hostages want the government to change its policy and make concessions that it currently is not prepared to make. When you attack the government and call for the replacement of the prime minister, you lose the open heart of the very people who you want to enlist in your favor in public opinion.
“The families of the hostages want the government to change its policy and make concessions that it currently is not prepared to make,” Rimon added. “When you attack the government and call for the replacement of the prime minister, you lose the open heart of the very people who you want to enlist in your favor in public opinion.”
Support for a deal in Israel has fluctuated throughout the war, with many Israelis disagreeing with the terms proposed in the past.
