Recent Islamic State Attack in Syria Suggests Bid for Continued Relevance
Experts attribute the recent attack in Syria to IS’s declining relevance in the region as well as Arab normalization with the Assad government
The Islamic State (IS) group killed 10 Syrian soldiers and pro-government fighters on Monday in the organization’s former stronghold of Raqqa Governorate in northern Syria.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that IS “attacked positions and checkpoints belonging to the regime … setting fire to military vehicles and prefabricated houses.” It noted that six additional soldiers were wounded, with some in critical condition.
During the height of its power in 2014 and 2015, IS controlled 40% of Iraq and around 30% of Syria, declaring the area a caliphate. By 2017, the group had lost over 95% of its territory. While greatly diminished, IS has established a network of affiliates throughout the Middle East and Africa through which it can operate.
Dr. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director of the Counter Extremism Project and former coordinator of a terror monitoring team in the UN Security Council, told The Media Line that Syria no longer operates as IS’s center of gravity as it once did. He said that the recent attack in Syria might be a way for the group to “show [its] relevance” and improve its public image.
It took them three months to even admit the death of the last caliph and to appoint another caliph who, then again, no one knows who that individual really is
One sign of IS’s creeping irrelevance is the organization’s response to the death of its caliph, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi. Turkey reported that it had killed him in April but IS announced his death only last week.
“It took them three months to even admit the death of the last caliph and to appoint another caliph who, then again, no one knows who that individual really is,” Schindler said. He expressed doubt that there is an actual person behind the alleged new caliph, who has been named as Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi.
Schindler said that counterterrorist tactics to identify IS leaders have become extremely sophisticated, so that each new caliph is quickly eliminated. The pace at which leaders are killed puts IS in a position where it has “to demonstrate [its] relevance by conducting these attacks,” Schindler said. “Otherwise, if you lose your caliph several times a year, you’re not looking exactly strong.”
He noted that IS affiliates in Afghanistan, West Africa, and even Europe have been more successful. “We just arrested ISIS members in Germany again, and in several European countries that wanted to conduct terror attacks,” he said.
The IS attack in Syria may also be a response to the reentrance of Syria into the Arab League, Schindler said. The shift, after a decade of suspension, reveals an Arab policy of normalization with Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government, which may serve as motivation for IS to attack Assad’s soldiers.
Romy Nasr, a security and extremism analyst covering the Middle East and North Africa, told The Media Line that this attack was IS’s deadliest in the past three years. She said that IS in Syria seems to be expanding its reach. The group is focusing on “government-backed regions, with an interest to destabilize the Assad regime and Russia’s plans,” she said.
Schindler said that IS is unlikely to conquer any new territory. “It’s really over for the time being,” he said. “I think everyone learned a lesson in 2019, that ISIS is not the federal government.”
He noted that IS will still be able to conduct terror attacks in both Syria and Iraq, despite no longer having a path toward territorial expansion in either country.
Internally displaced people in Syria and Iraq, including IS fighters and their families held in Kurdish prisons and camps, pose a risk factor for the further growth of IS, Schindler said. “That is a recruitment tool and some of the camps, in particular al-Hawl [refugee camp in northern Syria], really developed into somewhat of an administrative center for ISIS in Iraq and Syria,” he explained.
“I don’t think they plan terror attacks in the camps, but as far as keeping the organization going, financing those who then conduct terror attacks, it’s a very central issue at this point,” he said.
Part of the problem is that the international community has not made enough of an effort to repatriate foreign IS fighters held in Kurdish prisons, Schindler said, noting that “we still have a surprising number of foreigners in Syria.”
He explained that the Kurds will not be able to hold these prisoners indefinitely and that their release or escape could have serious consequences. “We have immediately several thousand hardened, even more, radicalized ISIL fighters that potentially will be getting out of those prisons,” he said. He pointed to the example of 20 or so IS fighters who escaped from a prison in northwestern Syria after it was damaged in February’s earthquake.
The large number of IS prisoners in Syria could provide “a massive number of fighters that ISIS can use to reestablish more control in the country than it has right now,” Schindler said. “It’s still a simmering conflict that can blow up at any time.”
