‘The Change Bloc Could Redefine Israel’s Future,’ Say Leading Scholars — If It Overcomes Fragmentation, Fear of Arab Partners
Professors Uriel Abulof and Yossi Shain tell The Media Line that the opposition’s fate hinges on legitimacy, unity and courage to build a true democratic alternative
As Israel’s opposition leaders seek to resurrect the so-called Change Bloc, two of the country’s most prominent political thinkers—one bluntly alarmist, the other cautiously hopeful—offered diverging views of its future. Speaking with The Media Line, Prof. Uriel Abulof of Tel Aviv University, also a visiting professor at Cornell University, and Prof. Yossi Shain, a renowned Israeli scholar, former member of the Israeli parliament for Yisrael Beitenu, and emeritus professor at Georgetown and Tel Aviv universities, dissected the bloc’s challenges and its chances of becoming a viable alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition.
“The Change Bloc could redefine Israel’s future,” both men agreed. However, for Abulof, it can only happen if the opposition embraces direct democracy and confronts its exclusion of Arab parties. At the same time, Shain sees it as the natural foundation of a centrist, patriotic coalition capable of reshaping Israel’s democratic identity.
Right now Israel is conducting itself effectively as a dictatorship
Abulof did not mince words. “Right now Israel is conducting itself effectively as a dictatorship,” he told The Media Line. “There is one individual, Netanyahu, and basically all the substantial decisions in the country are made by that single individual. The only possible balancing out of Netanyahu’s will comes from the judicial system, and that is already quite substantially weakened compared to how it used to be.” For him, the bloc’s first task is not merely to swap leaders but to restore what he calls “real democracy”—referendums, citizen assemblies, and institutions that ensure “the voice of the people truly matters.”
Shain, by contrast, painted a more pragmatic picture. In his view, the opposition is not leaderless but slowly converging around a coherent vision. “What exists today in Israel is a centrist right-wing coalition that is emerging,” he explained. “It strives to establish constitutional principles, to ensure that everybody will serve national service—either in the Israel Defense Forces or otherwise—and to create a commission that investigates the colossal failure of October 7.” For Shain, these shared goals are enough to form the nucleus of a patriotic Zionist bloc with liberal orientation, distinct from Netanyahu’s alliance of ultra-Orthodox and ultra-nationalist factions.
Both scholars acknowledged the Change Bloc’s current configuration: a potential lineup of Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman, Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, and Yair Golan. But where Shain sees diversity converging into centrist patriotism, Abulof sees hollow leadership. “Gantz is just hot air,” he said of former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, once leading the polls but now struggling to cross the electoral threshold. “Sometimes people would like to have some hot air—it feels warm and nice and cozy. But there is nothing behind it … He is most likely to evaporate from Israeli politics.”
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Shain agreed that Gantz’s decline was inevitable, though he framed it differently: “Benny Gantz was trying every time to appease all sides. Once he went with Netanyahu into a coalition because of national security. Other times, he was wavering between opposition and more state-oriented statements. But by and large, Benny Gantz is a very weak leader. Netanyahu overmaneuvered him. And right now, it’s very questionable whether Benny Gantz will even cross the threshold.”
If the bloc is unwilling to collaborate with the Arabs, even to the extent of forming a minority government supported from the outside, then it will perpetuate Netanyahu’s rule
The question of Arab representation became a sharp fault line in Abulof’s analysis. He lamented that, unlike the original Change Bloc of 2021, today’s iteration excludes Arab parties. “That is a troubling development,” he said. “If the bloc is unwilling to collaborate with the Arabs, even to the extent of forming a minority government supported from the outside, then it will perpetuate Netanyahu’s rule. Some will eventually yield and join him simply because they don’t want to be associated with the Arabs. That’s the most damaging lesson they could have learned.”
Shain acknowledged this tension but placed it in a wider historical frame. He described Netanyahu’s coalition as “clannish,” built on a pact with ultra-Orthodox factions who provide him with political survival in exchange for economic subsidies and blanket exemptions from military service. For Shain, the contrast is stark: “The current coalition is antiquated—religious, ultra-Orthodox and anti-Zionist. The Change Bloc represents the modern future of Israel—patriotic, Zionist, and liberal.” He added that Meretz, once a fixture of the left, has “evaporated,” leaving the real competition in the political center.
Abulof, meanwhile, turned to history and theology to warn of Netanyahu’s hold on segments of the public. He described Netanyahu as a modern-day Shabbatai Zevi—a false messiah who emerged after the 17th-century Khmelnytsky pogroms—and noted that some of the prime minister’s supporters even refer to him as Moshiach ben Yosef, the precursor messiah in Jewish tradition. “It’s a profound sign of the religious and messianic undercurrents driving Israeli politics today,” he said. “When you have a moral void, beliefs rush in to fill it.”
The scholars also clashed on whether Israeli society has shifted ideologically since the war in Gaza erupted on Oct. 7, 2023. Abulof dismissed the widespread narrative of a “turn to the right.” “What we do see is an emotional drift,” he argued, a decline in empathy toward Arabs, “but ideologically, half or more of Israelis still say yes to a Palestinian state in polls. To call this a shift to the right is simply inaccurate.” For him, the problem is not left versus right but a deeper “crisis of legitimacy,” shared by both government and opposition.
Shain, however, insisted that the bloc’s power lies precisely in transcending old ideological labels. He identified in Lapid, Liberman, and Bennett a centrist-right orientation grounded in Zionism, while Golan represents a patriotic center-left. This diversity, he said, “is the basis for crafting the new agenda for Israel’s future.”
It’s a profound sign of the religious and messianic undercurrents driving Israeli politics today. When you have a moral void, beliefs rush in to fill it.
Where Abulof warns of Netanyahu dragging Israel into what he likens to a Spartan state—“a nationalization of everything for the task of combating the enemies,” as he put it—Shain envisions an Israel that recommits to constitutional norms and pluralism. Where Abulof calls for referendums to empower citizens directly, Shain emphasizes the need for unity among Zionist, liberal forces to safeguard the country from what he calls “antiquated religious clannishness.”
Their contrasting tones highlight the paradox facing Israel’s opposition. Abulof’s bluntness shocks: “Israel is not really a democracy,” he said, adding that most countries aren’t either. For him, the opposition’s greatest challenge is to make it one. Shain’s optimism reassures: A centrist coalition is not only possible but already taking shape, he argued, drawing legitimacy from its commitment to service, accountability, and liberal Zionism.
What unites them, however, is the recognition that Netanyahu’s coalition has hollowed out Israel’s democratic fabric, and that only a credible, united bloc can present an alternative. Whether that bloc will dare to cross its red lines on Arab partnership—or instead retreat into fragmentation and personal rivalries—may decide not only the next election but the very character of the Israeli state.
