The Day After Abbas

With the 87-year-old PA president’s health continuing to decline, an end to Abbas’ rule is inevitable, but his policies of division and palace intrigue have complicated the search for a successor

Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas came to power in 2005 after decades in the shadow of his charismatic predecessor, Yasser Arafat.

Following Arafat’s death, Abbas won the 2005 presidential election by a significant majority, becoming the second president of the PA. He had gained a reputation as a reformer and a man of peace, having been centrally involved in the Oslo Accords, and was finally given the chance to lead the Palestinians.

Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, initially won a four-year term, but he has served since 2005 without further elections. He has maintained his rule in part through the support of a tight circle of aides and officials.

In 2018, he dissolved the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), the PA’s unicameral legislature. Abbas has also taken steps to weaken the judiciary, effectively strengthening the executive branch and taking single-handed control of the Palestinian political system.

A master politician and a champion of palace intrigue, Abbas pitted his officials against each other. Abbas represents three separate bodies: the PA, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), and Fatah, the political party that is the main PLO faction. By playing representatives from the three bodies against one another, Abbas managed to consolidate his power even further.

In recent years, Abbas has become increasingly isolated and autocratic. His popularity has plummeted, with Palestinians dismissing him as ineffective and incoherent. Those who have worked with Abbas describe him as vengeful, malicious, and rancorous.

After taking office, Abbas stripped many Arafat-era officers of their posts and benefits. He has sought pledges of absolute loyalty from anyone seeking to replace him.

When other top officials were accused of corruption and nepotism, Abbas looked the other way, hoping to secure fealty.

There is no person who has enough weight and is known to be the one who will decide the matter. This means that it may lead to Israeli and foreign conflicts and interference, and it may lead to chaos and fighting. This is something extremely dangerous.

Hani Al-Masri, director general of Masarat, the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Strategic Studies, told The Media Line that Palestinians want a charismatic leader who can unite the Palestinian people. While they saw Arafat as a leader able to bring together Palestinians from across the West Bank and Gaza, they do not see Abbas that way.

Nor does Abbas have any obvious successor. “There is no person who has enough weight and is known to be the one who will decide the matter,” Al-Masri said. “This means that it may lead to Israeli and foreign conflicts and interference, and it may lead to chaos and fighting. This is something extremely dangerous.”

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Palestinian official close to Abbas told The Media Line that Abbas’ advanced age is taking its toll. Having come to power at age 70, Abbas is now 87.

“For the purpose of keeping things calm, [there is] no need to make public every visit to the hospital the president makes,” the official said. “That may rattle people and persuade others to create a crisis and instability. The situation is fragile. Many are waiting for the news of his passing to take the first step. Those who act first get ahead.”

Dr. Amjad Abu El Ezz, a political science professor at Arab American University in Ramallah, told The Media Line that there is fear of violence and discord in Palestinian society if Abbas dies or the office of the president otherwise becomes vacant.

“I hope that we will not reach the stage of bloody conflicts and internal strife,” he said. “In an attempt not to reach that point, there are demands from within Fatah to arrange the internal house, because if chaos occurs within the movement, it will affect everyone, and Fatah and the people will pay the price for it.”

He predicted that a conflict would take place following Abbas’ death, but that it would not rise to the level of violence.

Ramallah-based political analyst Nour Odeh told The Media Line that there’s no clear succession plan in place for the day after Abbas’ death.

Behind the scenes, she said, various weak candidates are fiercely competing to be Abbas’ successors. She described the competition as “ironic and pitiful at the same time.”

Abbas benefits from the lack of a clear successor, Odeh said. “He plays on all of that and guarantees he remains the supreme and only ruler of Fatah and of the political system,” she explained.

She predicted that Abbas would not appoint a successor before his death. “Waiting for Abu Mazen to enable someone to ascend to power after him is pure nonsense,” she said.

Abbas’ health is apparently continuing to decline. The politician is suffering from prostate cancer and heart disease, and insiders have reported that he cannot take more than a few steps independently. A group of doctors is reportedly available to Abbas around the clock, waiting in an ambulance parked outside his office or home.

The transfer of power in the post-Abbas era won’t be an easy one. A failed transition process could cause acts of violence or even the collapse of the PA.

Mkhaimar Abusada, associate professor and chair of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, told The Media Line that the Palestinian Basic Law clearly delineates the process for appointing a new president when the office is vacated.

“Palestinian Basic Law says that if the office of the president becomes vacant, then the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council becomes president for a maximum of 60 days, and elections must be held within that period,” Abusada explained.

However, the PLC ceased to function in 2007 following the split between Fatah and Hamas, the de facto governing authority of Gaza.

If Abbas dies in office without designating a successor, the speaker of the Palestinian National Council, the PLO’s legislative body, will become provisional president. That role is held by Rawhi Fattouh, who also served as interim president after Arafat’s death.

The choice of PLO chair, who will presumably serve as PA president, falls on the shoulders of the Palestinian Central Council (PCC). Fatah and its allies form a majority in the PCC and the PCC Executive Committee, so whoever is appointed head of Fatah will likely come to lead the PLO and the PA as well.

Abusada warned that the relatively long list of would-be successors could be disastrous for the Palestinians.

“It means to me that the transfer of power in the post-Abbas era won’t be an easy one. A failed transition process could cause acts of violence or even the collapse of the PA,” he said.

It is no longer a secret to Palestinians, especially in the West Bank, that groups associated with different Fatah leaders are acquiring weapons and preparing for the sudden vacancy of the presidential office.

Ramallah-based political analyst Fares Sarfandi told The Media Line that the lack of political direction in the West Bank is creating instability. “The Palestinian territories stand on the brink of the abyss,” he said.

Nihad Abu Ghosh, another political analyst based in Ramallah, told The Media Line that Abbas’ policies have wreaked havoc on Palestinian politics.

“In the past eighteen years, since Abbas took power, the entire Palestinian political system has deteriorated and reached its lowest levels,” he said. “Institutions were disrupted and the president placed all executive, legislative, and judicial institutions in his hands. The division became entrenched, and the bodies within the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Authority were no longer effective.”

The political division caused by Abbas has also led to the lack of an obvious successor, Abu Ghosh added.

Odeh said that clarity around a successor will likely not emerge until Abbas’ death. “There are intense talks among Fatah leaders on what would happen on the day after. All of the alliances will remain ambiguous and unknown until the last moment,” she said.

Outside of the PA, foreign powers are also discussing Abbas’ potential successor, and Palestinians are weighing how the next PA president will be seen in the eyes of the world.

“America is still a global power that dominates world politics, and the Palestinians definitely don’t want to anger or alienate the Americans. So certainly, whoever is going to become the president of Palestine would like to have the blessing of the US administration,” Abusada said

Jordan is following the situation with great concern, alert to the possibility that a violent battle for succession could destabilize the east bank of the Jordan River, threatening the continued rule of the Hashemite monarch.

Both Jordan and Egypt are also worried about increasing regional instability, especially given the lack of a political horizon for Israel and the PA.

“Both [counties] would like to see a moderate Palestinian leadership that’s committed to peace and the two-state solution and committed to security coordination with Israel, and able to end the internal division. But the Jordanians are looking to see if the person that will occupy the seat of the PA presidency is strong enough to restore law and order in the West Bank,” Abusada said.

According to sources in the Fatah movement, Jordanian intelligence has increased its participation in the succession battle and is holding regular consultations with Majed Faraj, the head of Palestinian intelligence, and with Hussein al-Sheikh, secretary general of the Executive Committee of the PLO.

Ramallah-based political analyst Esmat Mansour told The Media Line that the general feeling among Palestinians is that Abbas has failed to deliver on his promises.

“The Authority hardly performs its functions to a minimum. It is leading a failed political project with Israel, unable to fulfill its obligations towards the people, and failing to unite the Palestinians. There is a state of disintegration,” he said.

Abbas keeps a tight grip on sovereign ministries, with the finance, foreign, and interior ministers reporting directly to him and bypassing the prime minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh.

Under Abbas’ rule, Mansour said, “even the unions, civil institutions, all Palestinian factions, and the street have been marginalized and weakened.”

A member of the Fatah Central Committee told The Media Line that there have been secret meetings between members of the Central Committee. Four wings of the committee have verbally agreed that Vice Chair of the Central Committee Mahmoud Aloul should be Fatah’s candidate for the presidency.

Aloul, who belongs to the old guard of Palestinian leadership, is expected to pursue relatively similar policies to Abbas if elected to replace him. For example, Aloul shares Abbas’s strategy of sticking to “popular resistance” rather than armed struggle against Israel. His support comes primarily from those in the Nablus area.

“I don’t think he is on the international radar,” despite his “decent” credentials, one Fatah official told The Media Line.

PLO Executive Committee Secretary General al-Sheikh is also seen as a potential successor to Abbas.

Al-Sheikh, who also serves on the Fatah Central Committee and as minister for civil affairs, is unpopular among many Palestinians. His role involves coordination with Israel and he has close and intimate ties with top Israeli security officials, which many Palestinians view as problematic. He has also been accused of corruption and sexual assault, which he has denied.

The Fatah official added that a rift has been ongoing between al-Sheikh and Faraj, head of Palestinian intelligence, who is seen as another potential successor. According to insiders, Faraj maintains good relations with Hamas leadership and has constant communication with its leaders in Gaza and abroad.

Faraj, who is originally from Dheisheh refugee camp, was imprisoned for six years in Israeli prisons, lending him street credibility. He is a close confidant of Abbas’.

But he is currently fighting cancer, which may stop him from succeeding Abbas.

Another serious contender for the chairmanship of the PLO and the presidency of the PA is Jibril Rajoub, the chair of the Palestinian Football Association and the secretary general of the Fatah Central Committee.

Rajoub, 70, is former chief of preventive security in the West Bank and is regarded as actively vying to succeed Abbas.

He reportedly has maintained power bases in Hebron and Ramallah despite Abbas’ efforts to weaken him.

Last month, Abbas fired a group of governors in an attempt to appease the simmering Palestinian street. He is working on replacing top security officials.

Sarfandi described the recent dismissals of 12 governors by Abbas as a massacre. “The majority of the dismissed governors are close to preventive security,” he said. “This is a blow to Jibril Rajoub, given the current state of conflict, and it’s an attempt to replace them with people close to the intelligence services.”

Another potential successor might be Marwan Barghouti, the Palestinian political figure who is serving five life sentences for his role in attacks against Israelis at the beginning of the Second Intifada. He was elected to the Fatah Central Committee at the last two Fatah conferences in 2009 and 2016. His election angered Abbas and several top Fatah officials.

In 2021, Barghouti openly challenged Abbas by announcing his intention to run on a separate list in the parliamentary election. Eventually, Abbas called off the election.

Barghouti has been critical of Abbas and the current leadership of Fatah. He is favored by most Palestinians as their candidate for the PA presidency. He has assumed an iconic status among many Palestinians, embodying the role of a freedom fighter sacrificing his life for the cause.

Gaza-based political analyst Mohammad Hegazy told The Media Line that nominating Barghouti could be the best option to avoid chaos and infighting.

Another name floating around is Nasser Al Qudwa, the nephew of the late Arafat and a former foreign minister and UN envoy.

He left Ramallah in 2021 due to immense pressure after he publicly criticized his uncle’s successor.

“I had to be ousted from this country after a long period of steadfast” resistance, Al Qudwa told The Media Line in an interview from Gaza last year.

Al Qudwa was expelled from the Fatah Central Committee after he announced his desire to run his own list in the legislative elections that were eventually canceled by Abbas.

This decision cost Al Qudwa his security detail, his car and his driver, and his diplomatic passport. He was also dismissed from his position as director of the Yasser Arafat Foundation. Al Qudwa said he decided to relocate to Gaza instead of the West Bank because he feared for his life if he returned to Ramallah.

Al Qudwa is one of the few Palestinian political figures who might be acceptable to a large base of Palestinians from different backgrounds.

“He’s clean, his reputation can’t be tarnished, he is not corrupt, and his political history is respectable,” Hegazy said. “He’s a veteran international diplomat, and he’s Arafat’s nephew.”

But Hegazy noted that Al Qudwa’s criticism of Abbas has made it unlikely that he could take on the role of president.

In 2011, another top Fatah official, Mohammed Dahlan, was also expelled from Fatah after a fallout with Abbas and his two sons.

Dahlan, a former head of the Preventive Security Service in Gaza, has since been residing in the United Arab Emirates, where he reportedly serves as a special adviser to the ruling family.

“As long as he is out of the system, he will not be a competitor for the presidency,” Al-Masri said of Dahlan.

Senior Fatah official Tawfik Tirawi is seen as another potential successor to Abbas. Tirawi founded the PA’s General Intelligence Service and served as president of Istiqlal University in Jericho.

Tirawi once seemed like a natural successor to Abbas, but the two had a major falling out, after which Tirawi was stripped of his posts.

PA Prime Minister Shtayyeh’s name has also come up in discussions of a successor. But many say his chances have gotten worse since he took office in 2019. He suffers from a lack of support from the public and the various factions.

The 65-year-old Shtayyeh asserts his claim to succeed Abbas by sheer virtue of his prominent standing in the leadership hierarchy.

The discussion is over who will take over or who will succeed, but there is no talk of a political program

None of Abbas’ potential successors have offered a plan for the presidency or a political program.

“The discussion is over who will take over or who will succeed, but there is no talk of a political program,” Al-Masri said. “The issue of the president of the PA is important to all Palestinians and is not confined to Fatah or a particular faction. There must be competition.”

You have to have Palestinian credentials, and none of those names discussed have that

Despite the inevitability of Abbas vacating his seat, it is hard to imagine any of the potential successors winning public support.

“You have to have Palestinian credentials, and none of those names discussed have that,” Odeh said.