Three Years After US Withdrawal, Afghanistan Remains a Terrorist Safe Haven
Afghanistan remains a terror hub as the Taliban fails to curb IS-KP, TTP, and al-Qaida. Pakistan faces rising cross-border attacks, while experts warn IS-KP's global threat is expanding, targeting the US, China, and Russia
[Islamabad] Three-and-a-half years have passed since the Taliban reclaimed power in Afghanistan following the US military’s withdrawal under the Doha Peace Agreement. One of the central conditions of the agreement was that Afghanistan would no longer serve as a sanctuary for terrorist organizations or as a base for attacks against other countries.
Despite this clear stipulation, the Taliban have failed to uphold this commitment, leaving Afghanistan as a fertile ground for the resurgence of terrorist groups. Groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, al-Qaida, the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS-KP), and Baloch separatists have reportedly established training camps and operational footholds on Afghan soil. This development has undermined the security of Afghanistan’s neighbors while making the region increasingly volatile.
Pakistan, in particular, has endured tremendous suffering from these groups, which have repeatedly targeted the country’s security forces and civilians. Having borne the brunt of cross-border terrorism, Pakistan is now facing a crisis as a direct result of global inaction. Despite Pakistan’s repeated demands for the Taliban in Kabul to take decisive action, it has consistently refused, straining relations between the two neighbors and fuelling frequent border clashes.
This threat from Afghanistan extends far beyond the immediate region. The rise of IS-KP, an offshoot of the Islamic State, has particularly become a significant global concern. IS-KP has been able to rebuild its capabilities following the US withdrawal, exploiting the political and security vacuum left behind. The group is steadily regaining strength and aims to extend its influence beyond South Asia, targeting Western nations, including the United States.
Currently, the group is conducting operations within Afghanistan, such as against the Taliban and the Shite Hazara community, including carrying out the recent assassination of a Chinese national. It remains active in eastern Afghanistan, particularly in provinces like Nangarhar and Kunar, and has shown a growing ability to recruit disillusioned Taliban fighters and foreign combatants, particularly from Central Asian Republics.
While the Taliban claim to have restored peace and stability, IS-KP has repeatedly carried out high-profile attacks, targeting Taliban leaders, prominent religious figures, and Afghanistan’s minority Shiite community. However, one of the most concerning aspects of IS-KP’s resurgence is its potential to launch attacks beyond Afghanistan’s borders, which will have significant regional and global implications.
IS-KP has been expanding its global influence through social media, sponsoring attacks, and inspiring followers worldwide, including so-called lone wolves. Anti-terrorism experts highlight a surge in sophisticated online propaganda driving this outreach.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently issued a report highlighting the global reach of IS-KP. The report cited the case of Shams Uddin Jabbar, “a radicalized truck driver who carried out a deadly terrorist attack in the United States during New Year celebrations, killing 14 people and injuring many others” and claimed that the ISIS-inspired group influenced Jabbar’s thoughts.
Another CSIS report stated that “in a conflict-ridden global environment, IS-KP presents a unique opportunity for global counterterrorism cooperation. As a transnational threat, it endangers governments across the region, including the Taliban, Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, and India.”
IS-KP has been behind multiple plots in Europe and seeks to develop the capability to strike the United States, as well as target its strategic competitors, China and Russia.
The report further noted: “IS-KP has been behind multiple plots in Europe and seeks to develop the capability to strike the United States, as well as target its strategic competitors, China and Russia.”
Meanwhile, recent American media reports citing former CIA director William Burns reveal that the agency is “quite concerned” about the growing threat from the Islamic State, particularly its ability to “inspire people.”
Similarly, former FBI director Christopher Wray recently informed the House Judiciary Committee that the primary terrorism threat to the US comes from lone actors or small cells. According to Wray, these individuals often radicalize online and use readily available weapons to target soft, vulnerable locations.
IS-KP has enhanced its financial and logistical resources over the past six months, including leveraging Afghan and Central Asian Diasporas for support.
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The UN has also warned that IS-KP represents the most significant external terrorist threat to Europe as it strengthens its organizational capabilities. “IS-KP has enhanced its financial and logistical resources over the past six months, including leveraging Afghan and Central Asian Diasporas for support,” stated Vladimir Voronkov, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism.
Voronkov highlighted the resurgence of the Islamic State’s core structure in the Middle East and a worsening situation in Africa. He noted that Islamic State West Africa Province and the group’s Sahel branch have significantly expanded and strengthened their operational zones.
However, Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban chief spokesperson, rejected the claims of IS-KP regrouping on Afghan soil.
He told The Media Line that “our special forces are constantly pursuing IS-KP, we have disabled their command and control structure, and remaining small factions will also be eliminated soon.”
Mujahid added that “previously, our special forces had killed the IS-KP chief for the Indian subcontinent, Ijaz Amin Ahangar, along with his two commanders.”
The Media Line spoke with several experts to gain insights into this critical security situation.
Many non-state actors have been shaped by external influences, including the CIA, which has historically created such groups to counter governments.
According to Adeeb Uz Zaman Safvi, a Karachi-based defense and security analyst, retired Pakistan Navy captain, and US Naval War College alumnus, “Many non-state actors have been shaped by external influences, including the CIA, which has historically created such groups to counter governments.”
Safvi underscored this point by citing the example of the Afghan Taliban, who the US initially supported during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Safvi noted that Hillary Clinton, the former US secretary of state, admitted during a Congressional hearing: “We created those who we are fighting today.”
Such actors are often activated through false flag operations to justify military interventions. These groups are later branded as ‘resurgent’ to align with broader geopolitical agendas.
“Such actors are often activated through false flag operations to justify military interventions,” noted Safvi. “These groups are later branded as ‘resurgent’ to align with broader geopolitical agendas,” he said, adding that he welcomed President Donald Trump’s opposition to any further funding of war and shift away from the interventionist policies of previous US administrations.
However, Safvi criticized the global approach to counterterrorism, which he described as reactive and piecemeal.
These groups are later branded as ‘resurgent’ to align with broader geopolitical agendas.
He warned that the absence of a robust and proactive global strategy not only emboldens groups like IS-KP but also puts millions of lives at risk worldwide. “The current approach lacks coherence and fails to address the root causes of terrorism,” Safvi argued.
Adrian Calamel, a senior fellow at the Arabian Peninsula Institute and expert on South Asian terrorism, told The Media Line that “the rise in IS-KP attacks is linked to the fall of Afghanistan and a troubling clause in the 2020 Doha Agreement, which named the Taliban as America’s counterterrorism partner against al-Qaida and IS-KP.”
While al-Qaida members quickly aligned with the Taliban, IS-KP received a stark message when their leader in Afghanistan was executed in front of his loyalists: ‘Now you work for us’.
Calamel emphasized that “expecting IS-KP not to rebuild under Taliban rule is unrealistic, given the flawed US withdrawal.” He pointed out that “as the Taliban advanced on Kabul, they freed IS-KP and al-Qaida fighters from prisons. While al-Qaida members quickly aligned with the Taliban, IS-KP received a stark message when their leader in Afghanistan was executed in front of his loyalists: ‘Now you work for us’,” he explained.
“This was made evident on August 26, 2021, when an IS-KP fighter bypassed Taliban checkpoints and detonated a suicide vest at Hamid Karzai International Airport, killing 182 people, including US Seals,” Calamel added, urging “the US to reject the Doha Agreement, support the National Resistance Front, and shift focus to a reliable partner for airstrike coordination, rather than boots on the ground.”
He also emphasized the need for “a new understanding of the Taliban’s relationship with al-Qaida and IS-KP, similar to how al-Qaida evolved into the Islamic State in Iraq.”
According to Calamel, “counterterrorism analysts must recognize the coordination among the Taliban, Haqqani network, al-Qaida, and IS-KP, instead of compartmentalizing them.”
Meanwhile, Lucas Webber, a senior threat intelligence analyst at Tech Against Terrorism and a research fellow at the Soufan Center, highlighted the growing hostility of IS-KP toward Beijing. “During the caliphate era, ISIS in Iraq and Syria was the main source of anti-China propaganda, but IS-KP has emerged as the most vocal and hostile branch against Beijing,” he told The Media Line.
IS-KP has repeatedly targeted Chinese nationals, citing incidents such as the killing of two individuals in Pakistan in May 2017, the attack on a Kabul hotel in December 2022, a suicide bombing near a Chinese delegation at the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry in January 2023, and the recent killing of a Chinese mine worker.
“IS-KP has repeatedly targeted Chinese nationals, citing incidents such as the killing of two individuals in Pakistan in May 2017, the attack on a Kabul hotel in December 2022, a suicide bombing near a Chinese delegation at the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry in January 2023, and the recent killing of a Chinese mine worker,” he said.
Webber underlined that “these actions align with IS-KP’s escalating propaganda campaign, which criticizes China’s treatment of the Uyghur Muslim community, its ties with the Taliban, and the Belt and Road Initiative’s expansion into Islamic regions.”
According to Webber, the US “has maintained a strong focus on IS-KP, evidenced by its signal intelligence detecting chatter about the Kerman suicide attacks and the assault on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall.”
He explained that IS-KP’s robust propaganda network “leverages social media and messaging apps to fundraise, recruit, build support, and distribute tactical guides for plotting attacks in supporters’ home countries.”
To effectively counter this growing threat, the Trump administration should prioritize allocating additional resources to identify, disrupt, and dismantle IS-KP’s online operations.
“To effectively counter this growing threat, the Trump administration should prioritize allocating additional resources to identify, disrupt, and dismantle IS-KP’s online operations,” Webber concluded.
