Trump’s Pro-Israel Cabinet Picks Could Strain Relations With Turkey, Analysts Warn
The US President-elect’s picks for his administration draw concerns over the impact on relations with Turkey
US President-elect Donald Trump’s staunch pro-Israel cabinet nominees for his cabinet will be the biggest hurdle in improving relations with Turkey, analysts told The Media Line.
Trump’s nominee for the ambassador to the UN, Elise Stefanik, said the UN has “betrayed” Israel and supports defunding UNRWA. Mike Huckabee, who was nominated to be ambassador to Israel, said there is “no such thing” as the West Bank. The president-elect’s pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has argued against a cease-fire in Gaza and said Hamas is to blame for the deaths of civilians in the war.
Gulru Gezer, a former diplomat who served as Turkey’s counsel general in Los Angeles, told The Media Line that an emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lead to a regional war, posing risks for Ankara, especially if it involves Iran, which shares a border with Turkey.
I think now obviously they have an extremely pro-Israeli stance, and of course, I’m wondering how they’re going to bring peace to the region and what the repercussions will be. We can see that Netanyahu has only been encouraged by the statements that the government has been making in the past week or so. I think that is a concern because it’s also a security concern for us.
“I think now obviously they have an extremely pro-Israeli stance, and of course, I’m wondering how they’re going to bring peace to the region and what the repercussions will be,” said Gezer, who is now the director of the foreign policy program at The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkiye in Ankara. “We can see that Netanyahu has only been encouraged by the statements that the government has been making in the past week or so. I think that is a concern because it’s also a security concern for us.”
Ryan Bohl, a Middle East analyst for the risk intelligence company RANE, said the Trump administration’s pro-Israel stance would be the biggest risk to relations with Turkey.
He believed the push for annexation of the West Bank would get stronger and that Erdogan would have to oppose it, even though, Bohl stated, the Turkish president does not want to end relations with Israel completely.
Erdogan was heavily criticized for continuing to have ties with Israel, especially regarding trade, during the war in Gaza.
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His Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s losses in local elections across the country in March were partly blamed on such criticism, and the Turkish president soon after announced that trade with Israel was ending.
Turkey may position itself diplomatically as the harsh, friendly NATO ally. And some of the Trump hawks are going to want to push back and crack down on Turkey’s relations with Iran, on Turkey’s relations with Russia, to punish him for it.
Bohl said that Erdogan might try to cultivate a global role by criticizing the pro-Israel stances of the US and his Western allies.
“Turkey may position itself diplomatically as the harsh, friendly NATO ally,” Bohl said. “And some of the Trump hawks are going to want to push back and crack down on Turkey’s relations with Iran, on Turkey’s relations with Russia, to punish him for it.”
Bohl agreed that Rubio could also cause Turkey headaches, especially given his stance on Iran and his pressing Ankara on any possible sanctions evasions.
Under Trump’s first term, Turkey received an exemption from sanctions against Iran for importing oil.
“We’re about to see a return of maximum pressure on Iran. That’s going to be a problem for the Turks,” Bohl told The Media Line. He added that Rubio may push for a focus on Turkey’s human rights record to bolster his chances to run again for the Republican nomination in a future presidential election.
However, Erdogan could see the role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Trump’s administration as a positive. While nominated to head Health and Human Services, Bohl said that Kennedy could push Trump to withdraw US troops from Syria. That could give Turkey an opening to launch another offensive into Syria against Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria, who have been backed by the US.
Ankara is concerned having the Kurdish militia near its border will allow it to launch attacks on Turkey and has strongly opposed Washington’s alliance with the group.
The issue has led to tense relations while Trump was president.
In 2019, Trump sent a letter to Erdogan, who was preparing to launch an offensive into Syria against the US-backed Kurdish fighters, warning that he could “destroy the Turkish economy” and telling the Turkish president not to be a “tough guy.”
Turkey faced one of its lowest points in relations with the US under Trump when his government put sanctions on Turkish officials for the detainment of a US pastor.
It was the first time the US had sanctioned a NATO country, and the Turkish lira experienced a currency freefall.
Trump likes strong leaders, and he considers Erdogan to be one of those strong leaders.
However, Gezer was hopeful relations between the two leaders would improve, especially compared to those with Biden, who waited four months to talk to the Turkish president after coming into office.
“Trump likes strong leaders, and he considers Erdogan to be one of those strong leaders,” Gezer said.
