Turkey Starts Naval Drills Amid Concerns Over Expansion of Hamas-Israel War

US and Turkish ships have been sent to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea amid rising tensions

Turkey started naval drills in the eastern Mediterranean sea on Monday amid fears that the Hamas-Israel war could expand and pose new security threats and a refugee influx for Ankara.

Turkey reportedly issued a maritime advisory called Navtex, stating that it would carry out firing drills off the coast of the Turkish-led side of Cyprus. The drills will happen from October 16 to 20, according to a report by CNN Turk. 

Aydin Sezer, a foreign policy analyst based in Ankara, told The Media Line that he believed that the drills were meant as a signal to Turkish citizens to show them their country has a presence in the region. 

“Perhaps it is just a message, a message saying ‘we are here as well,’” Sezer reported to The Media Line. “It is undoubtedly more of a statement to the public.”

One of Turkey’s top concerns will be the risk of more refugees coming through its borders. Turkey shares a border with Iran, a backer of Hamas and enemy of Israel.

“The most serious threat will surely be the influx of refugees. Turkish citizens are already outraged by the influx of Syrian and Afghan refugees,” Sezer said. 

With almost 4 million displaced people in its land, Turkey hosts more refugees than any other country in the world, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

This has put major pressure on Erdogan, as discontent between the local population and refugees has risen. The refugee issue was believed to be a central reason that forced a second round of presidential elections in May.

Imdat Oner, a former Turkish diplomat, told The Media Line that he believed the naval drills were a message for the rest of the world that Ankara has its eye on what is happening in the region and is a player in it.

“Turkey will seek to minimize any threat for itself, because always there is a risk that this war will spill over to other countries,” Oner said. “I think Turkey is preparing itself for a more complicated scenario for itself in the eastern Mediterranean.”

The Eastern Mediterranean Sea [has been] a really critical zone for Turkey for a long time and Turkey wants to show itself as a critical player in the eastern zone as well

“The Eastern Mediterranean Sea [has been] a really critical zone for Turkey for a long time and Turkey wants to show itself as a critical player in the eastern zone as well,” he continued. 

The Eastern Mediterranean Sea, where Turkey, Israel, Lebanon and Syria all have coastlines, has been a source of competition for years. In 2018, Ankara used a naval ship to block an Italian vessel from drilling off the coast of Cyprus, a rival of Turkey’s. More recently, Israel said it thwarted an attack from Hamas at sea there. 

The US has sent two naval ships to the eastern Mediterranean since Hamas’ attack on Israel as a show of support for the country, but Washington said it does not intend to use them. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the vessels were meant as a message to others not to widen the war.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the concern that the war will spread is high, and does not believe it will be solved in a week.

Erdogan has tried to cultivate an image of being a global leader of Muslims and a defender of Palestinians. However, Turkish-Israeli ties have recently warmed, with Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting for the first time on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September.

Ankara has been hoping for an increase in trade and has been pushing for an energy deal with Israel. The two countries have maintained strong business ties even during low diplomatic points.

Some have viewed Erdogan’s response to the war as muted compared to his strong statements against Israel in the past, drawing criticism from Erdogan.

After the impending wave of refugees, Sezer explained that the largest risk for Turkey is what role it should play in the war.

“For a long time, a big segment of Turkish society has been extremely sensitive to the Palestinian issue. Indeed, Erdogan’s continuous efforts to remain neutral have been criticized,” Sezer said.

Oner believes that Ankara would likely not get involved in the war because there was no clear benefit and it did not want to harm relations further with the US, a top supporter of Israel.

“Turkey will never take any side in this conflict, because it’s highly risky and there will be no purpose for Ankara,” he said.