Turkish Opposition Rallies Around Istanbul Mayor Convicted of Insulting Public Officials

Analysts say that Ekrem Imamoglu’s sentence of two years and seven months in jail and a political ban could boost his chances against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in next year’s elections

A top opponent of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was sentenced to prison on Wednesday, months ahead of a national election that is expected to be the toughest race Erdogan has ever faced to remain in office.

A court sentenced opposition politician and mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, to two years and seven months in prison and banned him from politics for insulting public officials, but the case is expected to be sent to an appeals court.

Imamoglu allegedly called election officials “idiots” after they decided to cancel his initial win in the 2019 mayoral race in Istanbul in which he beat an Erdogan ally.

Imamoglu argued that his comment was aimed at the interior minister who had called him an “idiot.”

“Today’s verdict is an attack on the will of millions of Istanbulites who democratically elected a mayor for their city three years ago,” Imamoglu tweeted, announcing a rally for the following day after appearing in front of thousands of supporters Wednesday night.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, center, flanked by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader The Republic People’s Party (CHP) (blue tie) seen in Istanbul on December 14, 2022, hours after a Turkish court sentenced him to nearly three years jail for insulting public officials. (Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality)

The gathering will include opposition leaders from a coalition of parties that have agreed to cooperate in the coming elections, including a former Turkish prime minister and Erdogan’s former finance and interior ministers.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Imamoglu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), also is expected to be there.

Turkey is set to go to the polls by June of next year to vote in parliamentary and presidential elections.

The opposition coalition has not yet announced a presidential candidate but Kilicdaroglu was expected to get the role, despite support for both Imamoglu and fellow party member Mansur Yavas.

Berk Esen, an assistant professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, said the momentum is now with Imamoglu.

“I think the verdict will exert pressure on [the opposition coalition] to side with Imamoglu and possibly declare him as their joint candidate. It clearly demonstrates that Erdogan fears Imamoglu the most,” Esen told The Media Line.

Kilicdaroglu was photographed at an airport during a trip to Germany on Wednesday, although he returned and met with Imamoglu in the evening after the verdict.

“Kilicdaroglu lost a lot of support and credibility by leaving the country on the day of this trial. There is enormous outpouring of support for Imamoglu,” according to Esen.

Crowds gathered at the Istanbul municipal headquarters after the trial, where Imamoglu dismissed the verdict as unjust and told the crowd that people would respond with their votes in the elections.

A poll by Metropoll Research carried out last month showed 44% of respondents believe that the court case against Imamoglu was politically motivated, compared to 17% that believe it was a genuine case about libel.

Twenty-eight percent of supporters of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) believe it was driven by politics compared to 24% that thought it was a libel case.

Several opposition politicians, including Imamoglu, have beaten Erdogan in election polls which also show the opposition coalition as having a strong chance of taking control of the parliament.

Following the announcement of the prison sentence, the Foreign Ministry of Germany, a key ally for Turkey, tweeted that the verdict is a major setback for democracy and that freedom of speech is crucial, especially during an election.

The majority of Germany’s Turkish diaspora who have cast ballots in previous Turkish elections have voted for Erdogan.

Kristian Brakel, head of the Turkey office for the Heinrich Böll Foundation, says that Imamoglu could experience a boost to his popularity.

The increased popularity could come “if the public views the sentence as a too obvious move of the government to interfere with the elections. Something akin to the reaction when the Istanbul election results were not accepted by the government,” Brakel told The Media Line.

After Imamoglu’s initial slim victory was cancelled during local elections in 2019, he won the rerun by a landslide.

Imamoglu’s top competition was the former prime minister under Erdogan and a member of the president’s political party.

It was considered Erdogan’s greatest defeat since coming to office.

Brakel warns that if the opposition coalition does end up choosing Imamoglu as its candidate, the decision could backfire.

“But on the other hand, nominating Imamoglu now comes with an extra risk for the opposition – if he loses his appeal the CHP would be left without a candidate in the middle of their campaign. In the end Erdogan would prefer to run against Kilicdaroglu,” Brakel said.

Abdullah Gul, a former Turkish president and former Erdogan ally, said the verdict is an injustice for Imamoglu and the country, and said he believes that higher courts will rule against the conviction.