Yemen’s Fragile ‘Unofficial’ Truce Faces New Challenges as Houthi Officials Return From Talks

Ongoing negotiations have yielded some positive developments, but experts warn that formal peace remains elusive

Houthi officials returned to the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, which they control, on Tuesday following five days of Oman-mediated negotiations in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, the Houthi-run Al Masirah television outlet reported.

While no official agenda has been released, reports suggest the talks focused on long-term cease-fire agreements, a timeline for the withdrawal of foreign troops, allocating oil revenues to pay civil servants, and easier access to both Sanaa International Airport and the Hudaydah Port, which are under Houthi control.

Earlier talks, mediated by Muscat, were held in Sanaa last April amid improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Although an “unofficial” truce has been in place in Yemen since April, the conflict continues. A recent UN report states that Yemen is still grappling with one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.

After eight years of conflict, the national socioeconomic systems of Yemen remain on the edge of total collapse, while conflict, large-scale displacement, and recurring climate shocks have left families vulnerable to communicable disease outbreaks. Millions of children lack access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene services, and the country continues to experience regular outbreaks of cholera, measles, diphtheria, and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

“After eight years of conflict, the national socioeconomic systems of Yemen remain on the edge of total collapse, while conflict, large-scale displacement, and recurring climate shocks have left families vulnerable to communicable disease outbreaks. Millions of children lack access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene services, and the country continues to experience regular outbreaks of cholera, measles, diphtheria, and other vaccine-preventable diseases,” the UN report says.

A six-month truce in the Yemeni civil war expired last October. Nevertheless, warming relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran—the external powers backing the warring factions—have maintained an “unofficial truce” since April. Analysts call the truce “unofficial” due to the absence of a formally signed agreement between the conflicting parties.

Hannah Porter, an independent consultant specializing in Yemeni affairs, says the conflict in Yemen continues unresolved.

She told The Media Line that despite a halt to rebel Houthi militia attacks and Saudi-led airstrikes, there is still fighting along the frontlines between Houthi and government-held areas, including in the Al-Dhale governate and the city of Taiz, both located in the center of the country.

Porter also notes a noticeable uptick in activities by Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, an Islamist group, in southern Yemen. As a result, she said, “The situation is far from peaceful, even with the effective Saudi-Houthi truce.”

Omar Munassar, a Turkish scholar in international relations, notes that the thaw in Iran-Saudi relations has yielded positive developments, such as direct April talks between Riyadh and the Houthi rebels. These led to the reopening of Sana’a airport and Hudaydah seaport, both of which had been closed since the conflict’s outset.

Furthermore, the UN brokered the successful unloading of oil from a damaged tanker, the FSO Safer, off Yemen’s coast, averting an environmental catastrophe.

Still, Porter emphasizes that dire economic conditions persist for Yemenis across the nation. She says official negotiations are required to address the civil war’s core issues and end the humanitarian crisis.

“An expanded truce and comprehensive peace process, which US Special Envoy Lenderking is currently seeking, will need to address these problems to be sustainable,” she said.

However, Munassar believes that a formal cease-fire remains unlikely in the near term.

Houthi rebels may choose to re-escalate after failing to reach agreements with the Yemeni government in Aden and Saudi Arabia on critical issues such as the division of oil and gas revenues and the payment of government employees’ salaries.

Munassar identifies salary payments as a major point of contention between the internationally recognized government and the Houthi rebels.

The Houthis assert that the government, which Saudi Arabia supports, should pay the salaries of public employees throughout Yemen due to its control over oil and gas resources. The government, however, says the Houthis should cover the wages of public employees within the capital city, Sana’a, using different sources of income, including taxes.

There is a high probability of an escalation due to the tense language used by the Houthis, who have been making threats regarding recent US activities in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea

At the regional level, escalating rhetoric from the Houthis and increased US military activity in the Red and Arabian Seas may add complexity to an already tense situation.

“There is a high probability of an escalation due to the tense language used by the Houthis, who have been making threats regarding recent US activities in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea,” Munassar noted.

Porter says that one of the main obstacles to restoring peace is the need for an effective national government. “Yemen is divided along more than one fault line, and there is no real prospect of this being resolved,” she said.

Munassar adds that several factors worsen the humanitarian crisis, such as declining donor funding due to global events like the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, ongoing disruptions in oil production, and wage delays for public employees.