Recent IDI Poll: Israelis Largely Optimistic About Future, but Divides Between Jews and Arabs

A recent November survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) found that a majority of the Israeli public are optimistic about the country’s future after the war but still disagree on various issues based on political and ethnic lines. 

The survey, conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the IDI between November 27–30, 2023, sampled a representative sample of 600 Jewish Israelis and 151 Arab Israelis. Respondents were asked questions on a range of topics, including the future of Israel’s security and democracy, the hostage exchange deal, resuming the fighting in Gaza after the ceasefire, support for a two-state solution, news media consumption, female IDF soldiers in combat roles, physical and economic security, social cohesion in Israeli society, and the potential for mass protests. 

Results from the survey indicate that since the IDI’s October poll, Israelis from the left, right, and center of the political spectrum, as well as Jewish and Arab Israelis alike, have become more optimistic about the future of Israel’s democracy and security.  

Similarly, about two-thirds of the total and a majority of Israelis from all political and religious groups outside of the Religious Zionist Party (39%) and National Haredi (41%) said they were in favor of the hostage deal with Hamas that freed 105 hostages held in Gaza in exchange for some 240 Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. 

However, the survey also revealed significant discrepancies across the political spectrum as well as between Jewish and Arab Israelis regarding how the conflict should be waged and what a post-war future should look like. 

The survey showed that most Jewish respondents (87%) support continuing the war as before, including a majority in each group across the ideological spectrum (Left, 74%; Center, 84%; Right, 93%). Only a small minority of Arab respondents (20.5%) supported continuing the fighting. These numbers decreased when individuals were asked if they were “certain.” 

Similarly, Israelis are also divided politically on whether the government should pursue a two-state solution after defeating Hamas, a proposal that has been pushed firmly by the Biden Administration in recent weeks. 

Among Jewish Israelis, 52% of respondents were in favor of Israel pursuing a two-state solution, while 55% of Arab Israelis were in favor of the plan. Across ideological lines, Jewish Israelis from the left were the only group with a majority in favor at 75%, whereas the Center (45%) and the Right (21%) were against. 

In an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep on the survey results, Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said that Israelis are largely “confused.”  

Plesner explains that although the majority are not in favor of a two-state solution, they do not want to control the lives of the Palestinians, with only 25% of Israelis being in favor of occupying Gaza long-term. 

“Right now, even the prime minister [Benjamin Netanyahu] said he’s not interested. I think this is a marginal voice in Israeli public life.”