Europe Arms Up as Russia Wages Hybrid War on the West
Across the continent, Europe is waking up to the possibility of war with Russia, and Giorgia Valente traces how that realization is reshaping everything from defense budgets to basic ideas about security. Once content to treat hard power as an American responsibility and Russian aggression as a distant problem, European Union states are now pouring money into rearmament, reviving conscription, and planning for a decade of turbulence. Intelligence agencies warn that Moscow could regain the capacity to threaten NATO territory by the early 2030s, and that warning is now baked into policy from Paris to Warsaw.
Valente shows that the next conflict may not begin with tanks crossing borders, but with overlapping “hybrid” blows: cyberattacks on parliaments and power grids, sabotage of undersea cables, pressure at border crossings, and disinformation campaigns designed to fracture societies from within. Analyst Jason Jay Smart tells The Media Line that Russia already believes it is at war with the West, using Cold War-style tools to avoid triggering NATO’s mutual defense clause.
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Researcher Giuseppe Spatafora points out that frontline states such as the Baltic countries and Poland face one kind of exposure, while larger states like Germany carry the political burden: if their resolve falters, European unity could crack. New EU tools such as SAFE and EDIP, and national measures like Germany’s Zeitenwende fund, are attempts to build an integrated shield—but Smart warns that much of the buildup still looks like a shopping spree, not a strategy.
By the end of Valente’s piece, one message is clear: Europe’s “holiday from history” is over, and readers will want to turn to the full article to grasp how today’s decisions may define the continent’s security for generations.
