Fearing a US-Israel Strike, Iranian-Backed Factions Talk Disarmament—Skeptics See a Rebrand
In Baghdad, the word of the week is “disarm”—but in Iraq, words have a habit of arriving faster than weapons ever leave. Reporting for The Media Line, Hudhaifa Ebrahim describes a sudden public turn: roughly 90% of Iranian-backed Iraqi armed factions say they are ready to surrender their weapons and accept the state’s monopoly on arms. Two groups, the al-Nujaba Movement and Iraqi Hezbollah, draw a hard line, saying they will not disarm until “the last occupier leaves Arab lands.”
A journalist close to Iraq’s ruling coalition, Hamid al-Maliki, says a powerful coordination committee is being formed to oversee handovers of medium and heavy weapons and drones, “without exception,” backed by guidance from Iraq’s top Shiite religious authority. Iraqi researcher Dr. Suad al-Qaisi argues the pivot is driven by fear of an Israeli-American strike, plus rising US pressure tied to the National Defense Authorization Act and a “publicly verifiable” disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration process.
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History complicates the promise. Past efforts produced splinters, rearmament, and loyalty that stayed with commanders even after fighters entered official forces—seen in clashes between Shiite factions in 2022. A leader in Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq even floats a Ministry of the Popular Mobilization Forces to fold armed power into the state on paper.
Then there’s the hardware. Official Iraqi figures once put weapons outside state control at 15 million; former officers warn of 30 million light arms and at least 200,000 heavy weapons, with caches that may never be declared. An Iraqi Prime Minister’s office source says weapons would be routed to the Iraqi Air Force, Ministry of Interior, and Ministry of Defense—but skeptics fear symbolic handovers, secret stockpiles, and political bargaining. For the full picture, read Ebrahim’s complete report.
