Most Gazans Now Oppose Hamas’ October 7 Attack, West Bankers Approve, Poll Shows
A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) indicates a growing shift in public opinion in Gaza and the West Bank regarding Hamas’ decision to launch the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The survey, conducted September 3-7, 2024, found that 57% of respondents in Gaza now consider the attack to have been the wrong decision, a significant drop in support since previous polls. In the West Bank, 64% of respondents still back the decision, though this also represents a decline in approval.
The attack and subsequent Israeli military offensive, which has left over 41,000 Palestinians dead according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, were launched after Hamas fighters killed 1,200 Israelis and abducted 251 others. The conflict has caused widespread destruction and displacement across Gaza, with many residents moving from shelter to shelter multiple times.
The poll also showed a decrease in support for Hamas, with its popularity in Gaza dropping to 35%, down from 38% in June. Despite this, Hamas remains the most popular political faction compared to others, including Fatah, led by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Support for a two-state solution has increased, with 39% of respondents now favoring negotiations as the best way to resolve the conflict, up from 32% in earlier polls. At the same time, support for armed struggle has declined, especially in Gaza, where it fell by 20 percentage points.
The PSR poll also revealed that the public’s expectations for Hamas to win the ongoing war have dropped significantly. In Gaza, only 28% now believe Hamas will emerge victorious, compared to 48% in earlier surveys. Similarly, in the West Bank, confidence in Hamas’ victory has decreased to 65%, down from 79%.
Amid these shifts in public sentiment, the poll highlights a growing preference among Gazans for Palestinian Authority (PA) control over the territory after the war. Support for continued Hamas rule in Gaza dropped to 36%, while support for PA control has risen to 42%. However, there remains strong opposition to President Mahmoud Abbas, with 84% of respondents across both Gaza and the West Bank calling for his resignation. Abbas’ approval rating stands at just 18%, although this is a slight improvement from previous months.
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Humanitarian conditions in Gaza remain dire, with 69% of respondents saying they have enough food for only a day or two, though this is an improvement from previous months. A staggering 80% of Gazans reported that at least one family member had been killed or injured during the war.
The survey also asked about potential post-war governance in Gaza. While 57% of respondents across Gaza and the West Bank believe Hamas will retain control, only 37% of Gazans share this belief, compared to 70% of West Bank residents. A significant number of respondents, 58%, said they would prefer Hamas to remain in power, but this preference was much higher in the West Bank than in Gaza.
As the conflict continues, the poll indicates widespread dissatisfaction with various actors involved in the war. Satisfaction with Hamas’ leadership, particularly with Yahiya Sinwar, has decreased, particularly in Gaza, where only 29% of respondents express approval. Regionally, satisfaction with actors like Iran and Hezbollah has also declined, with a significant portion of the population doubting Iran will retaliate for the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel.
The survey also shed light on fears in the West Bank, where 77% of respondents are concerned that the war in Gaza could spread to their region. A majority (63%) believe that Israel will destroy major cities if the conflict escalates, though most West Bank residents do not believe Israel will ultimately win such a war.
The poll also reveals increasing support among Palestinians for a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, with 51% of respondents expressing this preference. Support is slightly higher in Gaza, where 54% back this approach, compared to 49% in the West Bank.
The poll shows that 19% of Palestinians favor a confederation between two states—Palestine and Israel—with this option gaining more traction in Gaza (27%) than in the West Bank (14%). Meanwhile, a smaller group, 10%, supports the creation of a single state where Palestinians and Israelis live with equal rights. Around 21% of those surveyed were either unsure or did not express a preference regarding the potential solutions.
This shift toward negotiations and the two-state solution comes as overall support for armed struggle has decreased, particularly in Gaza, where residents face the brunt of ongoing conflict and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. Despite these changes in public opinion, skepticism remains about the practicality of achieving peace, especially given the continued expansion of Israeli settlements, which many Palestinians believe undermines the feasibility of a two-state solution; 57% say that settlement expansion has made the two-state solution impractical.
The survey, which included 1,200 participants (790 from the West Bank and 410 from Gaza), used face-to-face interviews in areas not directly affected by fighting. PSR emphasized the reliability of the data despite accusations from the Israeli military that Hamas attempted to manipulate poll results. PSR found no evidence of data falsification. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.5%.
