Al-Aqsa Flood and the Future of the Israeli Right
Al Rai, Kuwait, December 27
In the aftermath of Israel’s blowing defeat on October 7, a severe dilemma now confronts Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. This defeat has not only put an end to Israel’s longest-reigning leader and prominent symbol of extremism but also raised questions about the future of the right-wing movement and its far-reaching influence on Israeli politics and society. For the past three decades, the right wing has maintained control over Israel, a rather ironic situation considering that its dominance was largely shaped by the country’s ongoing conflicts with both internal and external resistance movements. This implies that the right wing’s hold on power stems from several factors: the increasing favor towards right-wing ideologies among the populace, the prioritization of security concerns above all else in public opinion, and the impressive ability of right-wing leaders to convince the public that Israel’s existence, security, and prosperity rely heavily on strict policies relating to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The recent events, known as the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” have dealt a severe blow to the right wing’s influence, particularly its credibility in safeguarding Israel’s survival and stability. Unlike previous clashes Israel engaged in with Hamas, which aimed to bolster the right, including the four Gaza conflicts since 2008, Al-Aqsa Flood stands as Israel’s most disastrous defeat by far. This incident laid bare the vulnerabilities of security and intelligence plans, exposing the fallacy of right-wing narratives asserting Israel’s invincibility. Especially significant is the fact that this defeat was inflicted by a resistance organization with limited military capabilities, confined to a besieged area. Consequently, the Al-Aqsa Flood attack has drained the right-wing’s source of support. As a result, the right will likely disappear from the Israeli domestic political landscape for a considerable duration, possibly spanning a decade or longer. However, this doesn’t mean that the right-wing inclination within society will wane or vanish altogether. It will continue to exist under centrist or left-wing governments, where it will undoubtedly exert influence, albeit in specific areas and on certain matters, and in a rational manner. In simpler terms, future Israeli governments are likely to adopt less extreme or more moderate right-wing policies, particularly when it comes to the Palestinian issue. The shift is supported by two main factors. Firstly, there has been a significant transformation in Israel’s social and political landscape. While the majority of society still leans towards the right, there have been changes over the past two decades due to waves of immigration. This has led to a diverse youth population, comprising various nationalities that do not necessarily align with strict religious beliefs or the authority of religious leaders. Many of them identify as secular and have embraced more left-wing or centrist ideologies. Israeli reports indicate that this new segment of society played a key role in the protests against the Netanyahu government, which lasted for 9 months and focused on the role of the judiciary. The strength and persistence of these demonstrations show the growing influence of those advocating for a more balanced approach. The second factor to consider is the United States’ involvement and support of Israel in the Gaza war. Officials from President Joe Biden’s administration have been critical of Netanyahu’s government, particularly regarding settlement expansion and the judicial reforms. According to insiders in decision-making circles in Washington, the Gaza war will have a lasting impact on Israeli-American relations. It will force a reevaluation of these relations, pushing the United States to intervene more assertively to prevent the right wing’s continued dominance in Israel. Failure to address this issue will be disastrous for Washington, which is bound by long-standing commitments to protect Israel. Consequently, this will necessitate ongoing American engagement in the region. Furthermore, the continued right-wing control will impede Washington’s plans for the post-war era, which heavily rely on reviving the two-state solution. Unfortunately, the right wing vehemently rejects this approach. It is undeniable that the Al-Aqsa Flood has dealt a blow to the prospects of the Israeli right wing, at least in the short term. However, it is important to acknowledge that the right-wing ideology and influence within Israeli society will persist, albeit at a slower pace due to shifting internal dynamics. In our estimation, this will lead to a return to Israel’s previous policies under pressure from the United States. These policies will aim to achieve stability in the conflict rather than a comprehensive solution, relying on time and strategic maneuvering with other issues. —Dana Al-Enezi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
