American Policy and the Timing of the Ukraine and Gaza Wars
Al-Ittihad, UAE, November 9
The American support extended to Ukraine and Israel throughout their respective conflicts with Russia and Hamas has sparked a growing controversy, intensifying divisions, and polarization. Upon Russia’s initiation of its military campaign in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, both major American political parties rallied behind the Biden Administration’s stance, holding Russia accountable for the war, and endorsing the American and European commitment to furnish military and economic aid to Ukraine. Similarly, when Hamas unleashed its attacks on Israel on October 7, a vast majority of Americans swiftly condemned these actions, lending support to Israel’s approach of dismantling Hamas. Presently, a notable faction of Republicans has begun to question the ongoing need for continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine, citing internal challenges and the pressing issue of illegal immigration along the Mexican border. However, older Republicans who came of age during the Cold War remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine. Their primary critique of President Biden lies in the belief that he has not done enough to furnish Ukraine with more advanced weaponry necessary to counter Russia’s formidable arsenal of missiles, fighter jets, and artillery. Consequently, it is anticipated that the matter of aid for Ukraine will ignite a bitter intraparty battle within the Republican Party in the weeks to come, particularly given Biden’s proposal to allocate an additional $61 billion to Ukraine. Conversely, it is projected that Biden’s parallel proposition of a $14 billion supplementary aid package for Israel will not encounter Republican opposition, as long as alternative means of funding, such as program cuts, can be identified. Worth noting is that all Republican candidates vying to challenge Biden in the 2024 presidential elections express unwavering support for Israel. Additionally, the widely watched Fox News network has adopted an overwhelmingly pro-Israel stance, vehemently criticizing voices critical of Tel Aviv. These dissenting voices are gaining traction across the nation, particularly within universities and academic circles. The growing influence of these anti-Israel sentiments poses an intriguing contrast to the unwavering support for Israel within Republican ranks. Meanwhile, there is a growing divide within the Democratic Party regarding the Gaza war, which is not as pronounced among Republicans. As the number of civilian casualties in Gaza continues to rise, a segment of young Democrats has expressed increasingly severe criticism towards Israel. Unfortunately, some of these criticisms have taken on a concerning undertone of anti-Semitism, causing a crisis on multiple American campuses. Adding to the complexity, Muslim Americans, who have traditionally aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, are openly criticizing President Biden for his pro-Israel remarks and even threatening to withhold their votes in the upcoming elections. Notably, these votes could hold significant sway in crucial swing states like Michigan, where a substantial Muslim voter population exists, and potentially become pivotal in determining the outcome of tight presidential races. As time progresses, we anticipate these political divisions to further deepen. With winter settling in Ukraine, large-scale ground offensives are expected to be limited, leaving its citizens increasingly exposed to the inevitable attacks by Russian missiles on vital energy infrastructure and fuel supplies. If the Russian military proves incapable of launching significant counterattacks, their strategy will likely involve maintaining their defensive lines while fortifying their positions, with the hope that Ukraine will eventually agree to some form of cease-fire agreement. Timing is of utmost importance in Gaza as well. The cold winter weather will only further exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation, making it even more critical to address. However, unless there is substantial progress made by the Israeli ground offensive, leading to a significant reduction in civilian casualties, pressure will mount on the United States to advocate for a swift truce or cease-fire. As this happens, we should anticipate a surge in protests and public demonstrations worldwide, marked by pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel sentiments. Unfortunately, these demonstrations will likely be met with the disheartening rise of Islamophobia in both Europe and the United States. One thing that is certain at this stage is that Hamas will face heightened isolation. In light of this, it becomes increasingly apparent that including Hamas in any diplomatic proposal to resolve the crisis will simply not be a viable option. Moving forward, it will be crucial for the Israeli government, Arab nations, and the United States to seek common ground and work toward a diplomatic resolution. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
