American Power and Trump’s Economic Doctrine
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, May 24
US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf and his speech at the Riyadh Economic Forum marked a pivotal shift in American foreign policy toward the region, unveiling for the first time the contours of the Trump Doctrine—a doctrine that stands in stark contrast to the approaches of his predecessors, particularly George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden.
While Trump’s speech was rooted in traditional elements of American strategic thought, it redefined those principles through a lens more attuned to the profound transformations underway in the Middle East. It reflected a recognition of the region’s political and strategic maturity—one achieved not through foreign imposition or external aid, but forged by its own leaders, grounded in its own traditions, values, and lived experiences.
Trump made clear that this evolution was indigenous, not imported. He stated, “This great transformation has not come from Western interventionists … giving you lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs. No, the gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by the so-called nation-builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits, like those who spent trillions failing to develop Kabul and Baghdad, so many other cities.” In that line, Trump directly rebuked the legacy of President George W. Bush’s interventionist agenda in Iraq.
More broadly, Trump’s message in Riyadh amounted to a wholesale rejection of two decades of US policy in the region—policies many in the Arab world blame for destruction, instability, and political chaos. After 9/11, Bush launched what he called the freedom agenda, later labeled the Bush Doctrine, encapsulated in his second inaugural address: “The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands.” This agenda justified military and political intervention in the region as a moral imperative.
Obama, in contrast, sought to reset relations through diplomacy, most notably in his 2009 Cairo speech, promising “a new beginning” with the Arab and Islamic worlds based on mutual respect and shared interests. His eloquence moved many, acknowledging Arab grievances and offering the dignity of understanding. But his words never translated into meaningful action, especially on the Palestinian issue and regional anxieties over Iran’s growing influence.
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His administration’s pursuit of the nuclear agreement with Tehran alienated key regional players, who viewed it as enabling Iran’s expansionism rather than containing it. For all its rhetorical promise, Obama’s strategy amounted to inertia—maintaining the status quo without confronting the difficult decisions needed to fulfill the partnership he envisioned.
Biden’s doctrine, if one can call it that, has been defined less by proactive policy and more by absence. For more than a year and a half, Biden’s administration stood by as over 50,000 Palestinians were killed and Gaza was reduced to rubble. It neither wielded its leverage to stop the bloodshed nor presented a viable path forward. The two-state solution lay in ruins, and the administration’s approach to the region appeared to be one of passive disengagement.
In sharp contrast, President Trump entered his second term intent on reversing these legacies from day one. He presented himself as a peacemaker—“not a fan of war,” as he said—but one who seeks peace through strength. His foreign policy vision was pragmatic, transactional, and grounded in strategic interests, not ideology.
In his Riyadh address, Trump told the region he did not believe in permanent enemies. In a stunning move, he announced from the Saudi capital the lifting of sanctions on Syria and held a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa—a decision that stirred backlash in Washington, including from Israel, and triggered accusations within Congress that members of Trump’s own administration were working to undermine the move. Nonetheless, Trump proceeded, seeing the decision as a strategic necessity to preempt Iran and Russia from reasserting dominance in Syria, while also answering a request from a key ally, the Saudi crown prince, who views Syrian stability as essential to regional peace.
Staying consistent with his principle of flexibility in diplomacy, Trump addressed Iran with both a warning and an invitation. In a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei and again during his Riyadh speech, he expressed willingness to improve ties: “If I can make a deal with Iran, I’ll be very happy. We’re going to make your region and the world a safer place.” But he issued a clear threat if Iran continued its aggressive behavior: The United States would impose “tremendous pressure” and drive Iranian oil exports to zero, as it had before.
Trump does not seek another war in the Middle East, nor does he want US troops permanently stationed there. But when he says Iran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, he means it, unlike Obama’s empty red lines in Syria or Biden’s broken ceasefire promises in Gaza.
Trump’s policy is to restore American deterrence, a concept many believe has eroded in recent years. His visit to the Gulf was designed as a signal of unwavering support for regional allies. As Reuters noted, it catalyzed the emergence of a new Sunni political order that counters the Iranian axis. It also sent a message to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Unconditional backing from Washington could no longer be taken for granted.
As British historian Niall Ferguson has written, America has many of the attributes of an empire, but lacks the will to act like one, causing its global power to oscillate. There are cycles of strength followed by periods of retreat. Under President Trump, America is in a phase of renewed assertiveness, with a doctrine built on economic revitalization and peace through strength.
Will this new approach succeed where others have failed? The chapter Trump opened during his Gulf visit may yet redefine America’s role in the Middle East—one rooted in mutual respect, equal partnership, and strategic clarity. But its success will depend on whether America can resist the temptations that have undone empires before: the lure of overreach, the loss of strategic discipline, and the mistaken belief that power is its own justification.
Amal Mudallali (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
