America’s Victory Over the Houthis Is Not Enough
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, April 5
For 20 days, US forces have been conducting intensive airstrikes on Houthi missile systems, drones, air defenses, weapons depots, command centers, training sites, and the residences of militia leaders across several governorates, including Sana’a. If these operations continue with the same precision and ultimately dismantle the remnants of Houthi military infrastructure, will that spell the end of their existence—and if so, what comes next?
In Syria, once Assad’s capabilities were degraded, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham seized the moment, advancing from Idlib and Aleppo nearly 400 kilometers toward Damascus, eventually toppling the regime. In Lebanon, when Israel dismantled Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and eliminated its leadership, the Lebanese army stepped into the vacuum, securing highways, the airport, and other strategic facilities. A president was elected, and a new government was formed.
In Yemen, however, while Houthi capabilities are being degraded and may be collapsing, no viable alternative force has yet emerged. The military campaign appears effective, and it is likely the Houthis will seek a deal with Washington to preserve what remains of their influence. But aerial and naval strikes alone will not be enough to uproot them; what’s awaited is a ground-based Yemeni force capable of seizing Sana’a. Without that, once the fighting subsides, the Iranian-backed militia could rehabilitate its position and retain control of northern Yemen.
Like Hezbollah, the Taliban, and similar religious militias in the region, the Houthis will not vanish with a battlefield defeat. They can regroup, recruit youth, raise funds, and exploit regional and international divisions to stage a comeback.
The significance of the current US military action lies in the rare international consensus it reflects, with broad agreement that the Houthis’ actions warrant condemnation. However, Washington appears focused on achieving just two objectives: neutralizing the Houthi military threat to international shipping lanes and extracting a commitment from the group not to target vessels transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
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Even if the Houthis become a global problem, they remain, at their core, a Yemeni and regional crisis. As the Houthis are militarily cornered, it is vital to ensure this moment is not squandered. A complementary political solution must be pursued—one that addresses the entire Yemeni conflict, not just maritime security.
Any viable political settlement must be based on the new reality: The Houthis no longer hold the leverage they once claimed. Their prior demands, such as control over sovereign ministries and the security apparatus, are now obsolete in light of their weakened position.
The US has been engaged militarily since mid-last month, awaiting a moment when the Houthis might raise the white flag and pledge to stop threatening global shipping. That moment may not be far off, and the Houthis will likely try to frame any cessation of attacks as tied to developments in Gaza. In truth, it will be a result of the destruction of their capabilities in Yemen.
Should the Houthis maintain control of Sana’a, it would be a symbolic victory, especially as the Assad regime has fallen, Hezbollah teeters on the brink, and Hamas is negotiating the end of its rule in Gaza. The military campaign may shift the balance—either through the total elimination of the Houthis or by compelling them to relinquish significant power—but this outcome depends on the emergence of a capable military force on the ground.
Is there a Yemeni force, credible domestically and internationally, that can move swiftly to capitalize on Houthi weakness and preempt a dangerous vacuum? The alternative to Houthi dominance should not be another militia or a military coup but a legitimate force that defeats the group and supports a political resolution grounded in prior negotiations.
Before the Houthis seized power in late 2014, Yemenis had made commendable progress toward a national consensus, having negotiated a roadmap, drafted a constitution, and agreed on transitional governance. Even after the Houthi coup, Yemen’s internationally recognized government preserved its legitimacy, maintaining ministries, embassies, a national currency, and a functioning central bank. It remains the legal framework through which an inclusive resolution can be pursued—one that ends the war and restores stability under a national umbrella.
Today’s US military campaign against the Houthis presents a rare and significant opportunity for transformative change in Yemen, one that may not come again for years.
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
