Complex Paths Forward in the Israeli Political Arena

Al-Ittihad, UAE, April 1

Despite the recent developments that forced Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to freeze his judicial overhaul plan, all evidence suggests that Israel is likely to remain in a state of instability for the foreseeable future. Netanyahu still holds many cards in the political game, and the group of hawks within the Likud bloc has not been able to push him to the brink. Netanyahu has experienced multiple challenging situations in the past, and has managed to weather those storms confidently, which points to the possibility of him coming out of this turmoil stronger and more powerful than he was before. The current divisions in Israel are of grave concern, and President Isaac Herzog is right to pursue dialogue to amend the situation. Behind the scenes, US diplomats are engaging in dialogue in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to lower the flames. With the extreme right-wing hardliners removed, a national unity government could be formed, and can ultimately lead to a rebuilding of partisan consensus. To achieve this, there must be a tactical and gradual cessation of controversial laws and legislation. Rebuilding a consensus or finding a way to dissolve the crisis may take some time, but is the most direct solution to move Israel away from its current impasse. Otherwise, demonstrations may increase, leading to a possible civil war. The centers of power in the Israeli regime, mostly within the military and religious institutions, will likely be the first to suggest a partial freeze of the situation. The reality confirms that Netanyahu needs a greater degree of control over government decisions, despite the recent developments. Faced with no other option, he will turn to consolidating even more power for himself, which may ultimately lead to his vision of dominating the political scene. Thus far, the methods used to address such scenarios have tended to focus on escalation and confrontation, rather than on calming the situation, despite the advice of President Herzog and the leaders of the military establishment. Furthermore, the continuation of confrontations in West Bank cities, as well as the successive occurrence of individual operations in Jenin, Jerusalem and Nablus, has caught the Israeli security off guard, even with the resumption of security contacts with the Palestinian Authority. – Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)