Gaza and Israel’s Next Steps

Al-Ittihad, UAE, March 2

The ongoing battles in the Gaza Strip are coinciding with mediation efforts, as delegations shuttle between Paris, Cairo, and Doha in search of a common ground to initiate the initial phase of a cease-fire, as well as a prisoner swap deal. However, all signs currently point to a robust Israeli agenda focused on military operations and a rejection of any cease-fire formulas, even if temporary. Israel’s security strategy appears to favor a continued military presence within the Gaza Strip, possibly even a period of direct rule. It is also exploring the option of involving Palestinian entities, such as the Palestinian Authority or tribal leaders, in the governance of the region. Meanwhile, plans are being drafted to expand governmental reach in both the West Bank and Gaza, supported by financial backing and a post-reconstruction stability plan once security and political conditions are met. Anticipating potential security escalation, particularly from factions beyond Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Israeli security agencies are strategizing for all possible scenarios. The focus remains on maintaining military dominance, even in the absence of reliable governance partners. Through this approach, Israel aims to steer the region’s future in alignment with its own strategic objectives, regardless of the potential consequences. Politically, Israel is preparing various scenarios for long-term management of the Strip and is bracing for the internal ramifications of this decision. Strengthening ties with the Palestinian Authority is deemed essential, despite recent setbacks, to navigate the complex landscape of the occupied territories effectively. Flexible policies that prioritize security concerns over political considerations are central to Israel’s approach moving forward. As a cease-fire comes into effect, Israel’s strategic direction will be critical in shaping the next phase of engagement in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Anticipated changes in the Israeli government or ruling coalition could introduce new dynamics, potentially altering the current course of action. However, the commitment to military prowess remains steadfast, necessitating adjustments in security and political strategies in the foreseeable future. —Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)