With tourism down and insurance costs up, the war is having an impact across the region, says the IMF. (NASA image)

Global Consequences of the Gaza War

The Media Line Staff

10/24/2023

Al-Ittihad, UAE, October 20

The ongoing crisis in Gaza carries significant global implications that can no longer be ignored. It is time to acknowledge and address the gravity of the situation. The long-held notion that the Palestinian predicament can be pushed to the sidelines while more pressing regional issues take center stage has been proven wrong. Prior to the Oct. 7 assaults launched by Hamas on Israel, it was commonly believed that the two parties had reached an understanding to improve economic relations. This included granting daily work permits for Gaza residents to work in Israel, under the condition that Hamas refrain from committing further acts of violence against Israel. Moreover, there existed a perception that if Arab nations continued to support the establishment of a Palestinian state, the responsibility for resolving differences and dealing with Israel would ultimately fall on the Palestinians themselves. They would also need to become less reliant on external financial and political aid from their allies. The current political narrative surrounding the Hamas movement and its violent confrontation with Israel is no longer relevant to the reality at hand. As tensions continue to escalate, it is time for major external powers, such as the United States, the European Union, Russia, and China, to recognize the dire situation at hand and take action before it’s too late. The potential for a large-scale Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip and possible Iranian support for Hizbullah to attack Israel cannot be ignored. It is imperative that these external powers come together to find a diplomatic solution to prevent further bloodshed in the region. In a show of force, the US has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean, sending a clear message to Iran that any attempt to launch a major missile attack against Israel will not go unnoticed. This serves as a warning that American forces are prepared to intervene with air- and missile strikes against all parties involved. However, we must acknowledge that such a military conflict between the US and Iran would have devastating consequences, not only for the safety and security of the regions involved but also for the global economy. The potential disruption of oil supplies from the Gulf is a critical concern that cannot be overlooked. It is now more crucial than ever for all parties involved to prioritize finding a peaceful resolution to this crisis. The voices of the innocent civilians caught in the crossfire must not be muted by the sounds of military strikes. The time for diplomatic action is now, before it is too late. Furthermore, a head-to-head clash between US and Russian troops in Syria has the potential to completely shift the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This could also result in Russia once again brandishing its tactical nuclear weapons, especially given Ukraine’s recent utilization of high-tech, long-range American missiles known as ATACMS against Russian airfields and supply depots far from the current front lines. This tense situation may also place China, previously maintaining a stance of neutrality toward Ukraine, under increasing pressure to provide direct military aid to Russia. However, the direst outcome is the potential for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, should the US continue to ramp up its involvement in both the Middle East and Ukraine. Needless to say, such a scenario would trigger a global economic crisis, very likely leading to a widespread recession. The weight of these consequences should urge all nations involved to tread with utmost caution and seek diplomatic solutions. In the face of global chaos, no country or region will be spared as the world navigates a turbulent future. As the US gears up for its 2024 presidential election and China reels from the economic fallout of COVID-19 closures, the state of affairs in Europe and Latin America mirrors a similar struggle with financial and economic hardships. This has led to a deepening divide within societies, further fracturing already vulnerable populations. Adding to the mixture are the intensifying impacts of climate disasters, which could potentially drive a surge of desperate migrants seeking refuge in wealthier nations. However, the reluctance of these nations to open their borders to those in need may only exacerbate the issue, creating a vicious cycle of despair and displacement. The current events unfolding in the US pose a daunting challenge for President Biden. His ability to navigate the daily onslaught of crises, alongside handling the nation’s mounting dissatisfaction with issues such as inflation, crime, illegal immigration, and homelessness, will ultimately determine his success as a leader. With his attention divided, Biden must also confront the pressing matters of Gaza and Israel, as well as maintain support for Ukraine and uphold NATO’s firm stance against Russia. However, skeptics question whether the man, perceived by some as too old for the job, is up to the task at hand. The next few weeks will serve as a litmus test, revealing whether Biden is capable of effectively managing his reelection campaign. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)

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