Has Israel Arrived at Its Most Precarious Point?
An-Nahar, Lebanon, August 24
Israel is now facing one of the most dangerous moments in its history. Netanyahu’s government has destroyed all hope of a two-state solution by burying the Arab Peace Initiative, burying the peace process, and allowing a single state to exist on land stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. This has resulted in a perpetual crisis for the Palestinians, entrapping them in an oppressive state in which Israeli law reigns arbitrarily. It is crucial to recognize this reality in order to find a way to resolve the conflict. The far-right government in Israel is not only undermining democracy within the country, and disregarding the Arab Peace Initiative, but its leaders are also suggesting a “final solution” that would culminate in forcing Palestinians to flee to Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. But the true crisis lies in the hypocrisy of the Israeli military, which misleads the public into thinking that they are “in charge” of the situation. However, while they “toy” with the idea of bombing Syria to “mow the Iranian grass,” they are, in fact, only able to take out half of the inbound threats. While it tries to impede the Iranian nuclear program, Israel is pushing Iran toward the finished project and a bomb virtually ready for detonation, with nations in the region setting off to create parallel deterrents. More so, Israel is selling illusions to the public, claiming tactical successes but neglecting to initiate peace negotiations, even with their Arab and American allies. Over the years, Israel’s diplomatic elites have effectively prevented major attempts to resolve the conflict. They are well aware that, even with the Camp David Accords, the Wadi Araba Treaty, and the Abraham Accords, conflicts with Egypt and Jordan remain unresolved. Similarly, nothing has been done to address the situation with Syria, Palestine, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Rather than embracing a historical opportunity proposed by King Abdullah, the arrogance of power and mere convenience got in Israel’s way. The public was mistakenly convinced that Israel could survive a prolonged state of ongoing war, with the threat of a third or fourth intifada looming, or more military operations in Gaza. Recent strategic shifts in the Middle East have seen Iran and Turkey enter the scene as two of Israel’s direct competitors. When America turns its back to the Middle East, lethal conflict may break out in the region without warning. How can we arrive at a point of equilibrium? If deterrence consisted only of using means of force, then America would have triumphed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ultimately, deterrence relies on the wisdom of history and politics, allowing one party to impose its will, regardless of its strength or frailty. Despite fears that Israel may take unilateral military action against Iran, it is clear that the Arab states are not relying on this prospect. They understand that the United States will not engage in armed conflict in this matter, and as a result, the recent normalization agreements are not connected to any endeavors to counter Iranian influence. Rather, the signing of these agreements is part of a strategic configuration and repositioning of forces in the area. It is undeniable that the nuclear program in the region, not excluding Israel, presents dangers, as does the potential for the proliferation of weapons in all forms. In the absence of an all-out regional war and the current state of US and Russian relations, determining a new type of deterrence is key. The United States no longer seeks to act as an international policeman; it will involve its military assets only when its own strategic interests are at stake. As for Iran, the countries of the region must take charge of addressing this rogue state. Now, amid a fracturing geopolitical landscape, Israeli political and military circles have a sense of hubris. Yet, they may be overlooking some crucial facts. The demise of the two-state solution has paved the way for a growing regional conflict. For years, Israel sought to remain insulated from the Middle East in order to safeguard its grip over Palestinian lands. But now, this country is being left out in the cold as Washington drifts away from Tel Aviv. This has forced it to make impossible choices between integration into the region and its territorial aspirations. Additionally, Israel must take strategic considerations for deterrence and counter-regional defense into account. Equally troubling are the structural changes within the Israeli military. The proposed conscription law and the basic law on Torah studies threaten to make the military a hotbed of political tensions and social polarization, and it’s clear that many younger citizens are less and less motivated to enlist. Strengthening the regional alliances of US partners does not require reinforcing the US-Israel alliance in opposition to Tehran. I have no doubt here that Israel envies some countries in the region due to the United States’ earnest dedication to their relationship, and the way it takes their interests into consideration at a time when it is curtailing the Netanyahu government’s international prestige. As Israel seeks to quell its tensions with the Palestinians, creating a false sense of stability and diverting attention toward Iran, its deterrence continues to diminish. Has Israel arrived at its most precarious period? —Samir Al-Taqi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
