Has the Renewal of Relations Between Iran and Saudi Arabia Eliminated the Chance of Normalization with Israel?
Ma’ariv, Israel, April 4
The Great Game is a term that was used to describe the rivalry between the 19th-century British and Russian empires over influence in Asia. Today, the Great Game is the rivalry between America and China in the Middle East. Recently, China’s move to foster ties between Tehran and Riyadh took both Israel and the United States by surprise. Israel was preoccupied with its debate on legal reform and the conflict with the Palestinians, while the US was swamped with economic and social turmoil, as well as a lack of a cohesive strategy in foreign policy, including the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. No matter the practical results for Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, and other countries in the region, China appears to be the biggest beneficiary. Beijing gains a reliable source of oil, a buffer against regional wars and terrorism, and a foothold in its Belt and Road Initiative and maritime transport routes. China also seeks to counteract America’s strategic shift to East Asia, which it views as both its backyard and front yard. For Iran, the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations is a way to bolster its geopolitical position without sacrificing its nuclear ambitions and hegemonic aspirations in the Middle East, although the move may not be welcomed by the international community or improve the country’s internal issues. Iran also desires to limit Israel’s clout in the region following the Abraham Accords, a challenge both Israeli and American diplomacy must confront. The United States was taken aback by the latest development in the Middle East, which further underscored the misapprehensions and discrepancies in its understanding of the situation. These discrepancies emanate from clashing views in America on its part as a global peacekeeper and its ambition to introduce democratic and liberal ideals to the world; an ambition that does not necessarily align with the nature of Arab and Islamic states. The press coverage of the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia quickly shifted to the back pages of the newspapers and was almost nonexistent in news broadcasts, which further demonstrates the ambivalence and inconsistency of the American approach to the Middle East. This was evidenced by President Obama’s determination to disrupt the equilibrium of the region by creating a hegemonic distinction between Saudi Arabia and Iran and his attempt to realize this goal through a nuclear deal with Tehran without taking into account the interests of other involved parties. The Trump Administration adopted a singular focus: to divert the United States’ strategic efforts to the Far East while strengthening the alliance with Saudi Arabia and Israel, canceling the nuclear agreement with Iran, and tightening the sanctions regime against it. They further backed Netanyahu’s government in promoting Israel’s geopolitical interests. In contrast, the Biden Administration is attempting a dual approach: returning to the nuclear agreement and, at the same time, increasing the US’s security presence in the region, despite the shift in focus to the Far East. To show support for their traditional allies, the US conducted a large-scale joint military exercise with Israel two months ago. However, the cooling of relations with Riyadh has prevented these efforts and has allowed Beijing to gain an advantage over the US. What are the consequences of the warming of relations between Iran and China for Israel? China, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, is not an enemy of the Jewish state. In fact, it has economic and other interests in developing ties with Israel, which is also in Israel’s interest. Though the easing of economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran may not be “good for the Jews,” it also demonstrates the risks associated with the current internal situation in Israel. Despite this, the new relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran does not preclude the prospects of normalizing relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh. Evidence of this is Saudi Arabia’s recent disclosure to the Wall Street Journal of its openness to normalizing relations with Israel, under certain conditions. Saudi Arabia’s fundamental concerns over Iran’s behavior have not disappeared, and its security ties with Israel, even if kept secret at present, are an expression of this awareness. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to expand its international relationships—beyond the United States, Gulf countries, Arab world, and now China—to include Israel. With the goal of becoming a modern, advanced economy independent of oil, as well as a cultural and tourist hub, Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel’s military and technological capabilities as invaluable. Various experts agree that Saudi Arabia is working to create different international balances, and the ties with Israel are a part of this equation. Despite a cooling of relations with the United States, Saudi Arabia is not in a position to abandon the American protective wall. Israel, America’s ally, serves as a factor in ensuring this. This is also in line with Washington’s interest, as noted by former American Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk: The United States views Israel as a key factor in maintaining regional stability. For this reason, and in light of the Iranian threat which the United States does not take lightly, it is in both countries’ best interests for their leaders to coordinate positions and actions through a close meeting. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s supposed pledge to halt the legal reform has been shaky at best. It’s not up to leaders like Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot to take charge and ensure that Israel confronts these security challenges rather than the passing of partisan laws in the Knesset. —Zalman Shoval (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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